FUTURES THINKING
SOME PERSPECTIVES
By Michael Moynagh and Richard
Worsley of the Tomorrow
Project
Thinking about the
future effectively is still a hot topic, despite the short-termism of
many companies. The public sector, for example, has begun to show a
new interest in long-term trends. Helping individuals and
organisations to gain insights into the future of people s lives is
the business of the Tomorrow Project. In this article we offer some
perspectives on how to think about the future systematically, based
on our experience.
Don t involve me!
Organisations can
use different methods to look ahead: prediction, forecasting, horizon
scanning, risk management, scenario planning, environmental scanning.
Sometimes the terms are used precisely, but often less so: horizon
scanning is regularly used to describe virtually all the tasks just
listed. Enthusiasts are often perplexed that futures thinking is
neglected, or at best given a low priority by senior management. An
erstwhile Secretary of State, on being asked to approve a budget for
a futures programme, is said to have replied, If you think it s got
any value, you get on with it. Just don t involve me. I ll run the
Department.
The low priority
often given to futures thinking is not irrational. Sometimes the
methods used are wrapped in mystique and jargon, which make them
inaccessible. As one of our supporters commented, I don t want to
take a degree in futurology or learn a new and unfamiliar vocabulary.
Potential users think that the time required for futures thinking is
too great to justify the potential returns. Many organisations choose
to be followers rather than leaders . It makes more sense for them
to adapt the innovations of others than to be pioneers themselves:
they don t have to bear the costs of experimentation, they can learn
from others mistakes and they avoid the risks of being first.
To be effective
followers, organisations need to be closely in touch with current
developments in the market. Thinking 10 or 20 years ahead may seem
too remote. The financial markets put huge pressure on business to
make adequate profits in the short term, and this drives short-term
thinking throughout the economy. Financial institutions do keep an
eye on the future they are interested in a company s investment
plans, for instance. But because the future is so uncertain, it is
often more sensible to maximise profits in the short term than to
forego some immediate profit (to pursue a long-term strategy) in the
hope that returns will be higher a few years ahead.
Most business
leaders find it hard to see what futures thinking can contribute in
this short-term climate. Where does it fit? We are often asked, How
do you embed futures thinking in an organisation? There is often
some frustration behind the question: individuals responsible for
long-term thinking sense that senior managers are not fully
committed. A helpful start may be to remember the business realities
we have just described. In many companies futures thinking is likely
to make only a limited direct contribution to strategic planning.
Arguing for it on long-term strategic grounds is almost bound to meet
with disappointment. The main exceptions, of course, will be
companies whose product cycles are themselves very longterm.
Short-termism does
not mean that futures thinking is unimportant. We would suggest that
it can play four key roles. Learning First, managers at all levels,
but especially senior managers, need to keep learning. Not for
nothing do people speak about the learning organisation . In a world
of rapid change, managers must keep abreast of developments in their
own fields and be able to set these developments in the wider
context. Changes in how people relate to each other may have
implications for marketing, for example. Human resources departments
will be very interested in the changing values and preoccupations of
their workforces. Paradoxically, futures thinking is an especially
powerful tool for learning about the present. " By encouraging
people to distance themselves from their immediate preoccupations, it
puts them into a learning mode. " Stepping 10 or even 20 years
into the future gives you a new perspective on the here and- now. You
can begin to imagine how today s trends are going to work out. In the
process you may notice things that are happening now which you had
previously ignored. Participants regularly leave our workshops on the
future saying they have a much better insight into the present.
Futures thinking is a forward-looking way of learning about today
rather than backward-looking. It asks not only How did we get here ,
but also Where are we going? " Looking at the present through
the eyes of the future stimulates the imaginative side of the brain.
Many managers find
their imaginations are stifled by the day to day pressure of their
jobs. They find the chance to think out of the box invigorating,
fun and creative. The learning experience can become more like
recreation than a chore. Often people will return to their desks
refreshed. " When people engage in a creative exercise that
relates to their work What will your job look like in ten years
time? for instance serendipitous learning frequently occurs. A
throw away remark may spark an insight from out of the blue .
Someone may think, That s the way to approach the problem! The
problem has nothing to do with the discussion, but relaxed and
imaginative learning enables the brain to make a connection
previously hidden. Organisations that want managers to learn about
the present, enjoy learning and think creatively will find futures
thinking a useful tool. There may for example be a case for embedding
it in departments responsible for management development.
Networking
Networking is
increasingly important to people s jobs. Good networks increase
learning (you are more aware of what is happening around you), they
put you in touch with people who can help you and they can spark new
initiatives ( If I hadn t met her, we wouldn t be doing this ).
Thinking about the future can create opportunities to cement and
extend networks. Some organisations we have worked with have used it
to bring together different departments.
Let s look at the
future of the work-life balance , for example. People who would never
otherwise meet each find a common interest. Lunch-time meetings on
different emerging trends can join up an organisation. Other
organisations have valued futures exercises as a way to meet experts
from outside. For example, we convened a workshop on well-being that
drew together experts who did not know each other from several
organisations, creating at least one new network. Futures thinking
can be a particularly helpful aid to networking because it is more
neutral than asking people from different, sometimes competing
organisations to discuss immediate concerns. If the topic is now ,
issues of confidentiality may hamper discussion. If the same topic is
approached in terms of What might this look like in 10 or 20 years
time? , pooling ideas is often easier.
Problem-solving
We suspect that one
reason why futures thinking is not embedded in many organisations is
that it is restricted to highlevel concerns, instead of being a
tool for everyday problem-solving. We see no reason why ordinary
problems, such as how to improve an aspect of the supply chain,
should not be tackled in a futures way. What might this problem
look like in five or 10 years time? How might different
organisations have approached it? What tools for managing it are
likely to have become available? It can help to tackle problems
because it is such an effective aid to learning, which is often at
the heart of problem-solving. As we have seen, it can provide new
perspectives on the present, stimulate the imagination and encourage
insights from out of the blue . We used a futures approach, for
example, to help one organisation prepare a bid for installing a new
information system. We asked what contexts the client might face in
15 years time, what types of information it might need and what the
implications could be for the proposed system. A selling point of the
bid was How often do people say two years after a system is
installed, If only they had thought of that! By imagining a variety
of futures, we have developed a more flexible system than would
normally be the case.
Shaping
Despite what we have
said about short-termism, some organisations do set out so shape the
future. Their leaders have a vision of where they want the
organisation to be and an intuitive grasp of what is possible. They
are not deterred by the complexity and uncertainties of the future.
Let s make the future happen! is their motto. Futures thinking can
be an aid to these leaders.
It can help them
test their intuition. Are they making accurate assumptions about the
emerging world? Is there something out there that they are missing?
What new information do they need to take on board? Good intuition,
properly tested, can be amazingly powerful. Our experience Our
experience suggests that futures thinking needs to be kept simple. We
encourage organisations to ask four straightforward questions: "
Where are we now? " What will influence the future? " What
alternatives are possible (scenarios)? " So what what are the
implications? Futures exercises should be done regularly to be most
effective for learning. Too often senior managers hold a session on
the future and think they have done it. But you can never do the
future because the world keeps changing and our understanding is
imperfect. Senior managers should at least do a regular check on
emerging trends to make sure they are still in touch. Why shouldn t a
board or senior management team devote one meeting a year to look at
the future, using their own staff or outside experts? It s not a new
idea, but fewer companies are still doing it. It is often helpful
for organisations to use a futures approach to focus on little
strategies not just an their grand strategy. It can help
individuals at every level to tackle the strategic problems they
face.
As more managers
have direct experience of how thinking about the futures can help
them in their particular jobs, support for it will spread. In the
long term this may prove the most effective way of embedding it
within an organisation.
Finally, there needs
to be commitment from the top commitment to lead an organisation
that is constantly learning, developing its networks, solving its
problems and in some cases shaping the future. It is hard to
think of a time when the lives of organisations in both the private
and public sectors were more full of change and uncertainty. And yet
much of the focus of organisations, in many ways understandably, is
more about surviving the pressures of But it is increasingly
recognised and understood as a means of helping to do what matters
most making the best decisions for our organisations.
SNIPPETS
The UK s 400 farmers
markets have combined sales estimated at £166m a year. But
this is only a tiny proportion of the total spent on food and drink -
£105bn. And Tesco alone sells ten times as much food as all the
farmers markets put together. (Prospect)
The US economy grows
as much in a day as it did in year in the 1930s (Specialist Schools
Trust)
In 2000 there were
150 people working at 10 Downing Street, compared with over 1000 in
the prime minister s departments of both Australia and Canada (The
British Constitution in the Twentieth Century, Professor Vernon
Bogdanor ed. OUP)
In Russia, male life
expectancy is less than the retirement age (Anon.)
30% of published
hardback books go directly from the printer to the remainder
warehouse (The Daily Telegraph)
A civil servant
transferring from the capital of Estonia, Tallinn, to Brussels in the
same rank would increase his salary 22-fold. (The Sunday Telegraph)
You do not really understand
something unless you can explain it to your grandmother (Albert Einstein)
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