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Strategic Planning for The Future
Notes on a
talk given by Dr Michael Moynagh at the World Future Society, UK.
Globalisation
Globalisation
is an unstoppable phenomenon that must be addressed. It is
increasingly an issue because of the greater connectedness of the
world – internet, media, telecomms etc.
Whether
humanity (we ourselves) pursue a competitive or a cooperative model
will determine the world we live in. Massive shocks will, however,
result from confrontational policies. China vs US is one to beware
of.
Growth
We can expect
that in 18 years wealth will increase by about 50% and will double in
28 years. We should consider how that world will feel. In
particular population density will be far greater. The implications
have significant effects on our decisions today.
Life Profiles
Life profiles
have changed. Traditional expectations are of a stratified life:
school, start work, get married, have a family, retire. But today
lifestyles are blessed with great choice. Jobs may be changed, we
may work where we please rather than where the job is, and even have
parallel jobs, we may not ever retire but change our roles, changing
partners is increasingly common, adopting children is too.
Mass
customisation is a phenomenon that is real. The problem now is too
much choice! Frameworks become valuable, we want an answer to how to
live – what is best for me? - and so we get lifestyle advisors.
Advisors for interiors, fashion, finances, holidays, homes,
education, health, exercise ... The fantasies we create for ourselves
are rarely realised and thus we often feel let down and seek trust in
delivery. We want authenticity.
Media Mediates Our Lives
We live
according to advertisements. But that is changing as subscription
services increase and advertising spend declines with the
availability of technology allowing choice.
Increasingly
we seek friendship societies, virtual communities that allow us to
share and develop ideas with similarly motivated people in disparate
locations.
The media
industry will thus seek to find ways to influence these networks.
Technology
As we benefit
from and rely upon information and communication technology the
demand for higher bandwidth increases. Spending on telecom
infrastructure will reap higher rewards than spending on transport
infrastructure and the “pipe” into our homes gets bigger.
Politics
Reiterated
the increasing recognition that politics is increasingly local and
global to the detriment of national politics. Additionally partisan
politics are disintegrating as people increasingly want to pick 'n'
mix policies. If we can not we switch-off. A solution will be
“credit-card” politics, whose negative side effect would
be to remove equality and make it monet based. Alternatively
electronic democracy may rise in its place. (Swiss model may be a
worthy case study in analysing how that might develop.)
Well Being is the New Framework
We measure
our life utility according to our:
autonomy
relationships
meaning
in life
physical
wellbeing
Shape of Society
Society is
rapidly changing shape from
a pyramid
structure of few rich and powerful at the top and many poor at the
bottom, to
a light bulb
shape with a greater middle income and long tail of less wealthy, and
now to
a peanut
shape as middle income families get squeezed down because skilled
jobs, like teaching, gardening, nursing are low paid and technology
is replacing manual and now even thinking tasks. The wealthy may
maintain their privilige with politics and control of capital. This
polarisation of socioeconomic groups will erode the tax base and
increase tension.
(A solution
is education, throughout life.)
E-Work
E-work, which
allows increasing lifestyle choice, requires simple structures. This
will tend to favour small organisations over large ones.
The work
place will place increasingly tough demands on people, so to avoid
stress the work environemnt must become softer. Stress in the
workplace is increasingly a health and safety issue. Relationships
are key and emotional intelligence is critical, which again demand
better education in the areas of self awareness and emotional
intelligence.
Sustainable Society
We are moving rapidly
toward a world of efficiency, wealth and green technology, which is all
good. However, the rate of change may be inadequate to prevent the destruction
of the environment by humanities overconsumption. In particular, climate
change has moved from a steady pace to a rapid pace. It is increasingly
a public policy issue, but we may not adapt fast enough.
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