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What would our world be like if humanity managed itself in an enlightened way? It bears consideration because even enlightened change makers don't seem able to present a vision that is realistic and attractive. At one extreme we don't want to live in caves, at the other virtual luxuries that we are greedy for are killing the planet and ourselves.

The challenge is brought home by the seemingly unresolvable dilemma whose debate has risen to a crescendo in the past weeks: food versus biofuel. The world is waking up to the fact that fossil fuel consumption is wasteful and polluting even if it is a cheap accessible fuel for luxury. But has quickly realised that consumption of grain crops for the production of biofuel is raising the demand for food and thus prices so that scarcity seems to be arising.

Our big picture perspective considers that at the root is humanity's way of thinking. The global systems can be fairly described as being hierarchical, in a feudal sense, and, as discussed last month, the winners are those who subscribe to the golden rule (who has the gold, makes the rules) rather than The Golden Rule. It is clear that a hierarchical system is an appropriate step of enlightenment to a holonic intelligence. At the basic level of intelligence the drivers are simple survival values - food and shelter. Soon cooperation and organisation becomes essential to enriching intelligent life - chiefs and rules emerge. If a system continues to grow without developing additional intelligences, however, the organism (in this case the species) outgrows its habitat. This is where humanity is now. Although there are certainly pockets of enlightenment, as there have been throughout history, the massive growth of humanity's footprint in the last couple of centuries has been much faster than the general understanding of ourselves. While technology development has been rapid, development of culture and ethics has stagnated, even regressed. In general, we continue to subscribe to the might is right, the rich make the rules model of organisation. What would the world be like if individuals were not trying to be the alpha male?

What is more worrying perhaps is that an alternative way of doing things has not been envisaged by any of us. This leaves us therefore with only the two futures outlined: living in caves or a virtual world maintained by human technology. Neither can sustain the same population that we have today. That is not surprising because we know that the human population extracts more than the biosphere can supply by a factor of 3 or more. (This is an equation that is not greatly mutable by human technology since the common denominator is energy from the sun, which is finite. Today our utilisation of that energy is grossly inefficient as evidenced by the massive debt we are incurring by consuming millions of years worth of energy in our consumption of fossil fuels.

The future is here. The vision of the future can find a middle way. Your vision of our world is as important as any. Our thoughts make the world. Consider the rules of nature in imagining how we might live happily without degenerating in to a world of primitive or virtual infrastructure by necessity. Obviously, in the first instance we must consume less. This does not mean be less happy. It means thinking about what you eat and drink. The air that you breath. The number of houses you can live in. The amount of time you spend "working". The rule of enough is a great guide - enough is enough! The Golden Rule must also be lived by us, especially those of us at the top of the pile. This has scientific rationale as well as philosophical certainty. If we empathise with those around us it is difficult to compromise on ethics and happiness becomes the norm.

Geopolitics

In 2004, climate change did not even rate a mention in the summary of the G8 summit at Sea Island, Georgia. In June it was the key topic of the rich nations' get-together in Heiligendamm, Germany. Summit host German Chancellor Angela Merkel faced an unenviable choice; insist that the summit endorse an ambitious plan for tackling greenhouse gases, although to do so would dangerously isolate US President Bush; or submit to a fudge that might damage her standing at home and across Europe. Merkel proved herself again by finding a middle ground. After days of heated negotiations, the leaders of the G8 countries announced that they will begin a dedicated push toward dramatic reductions of greenhouse gas emissions, but did not set hard targets for the cuts. The countries will "aim to at least halve global CO2 emissions by 2050," according to an official statement, but the world's leading emitters of GHGs will not be forced to meet any specific levels. Merkel called the agreement a "huge success." We reiterate our praise of Merkel's extraordinary emotional intelligence (described by The Economist here), which has been the key to bringing so many disparate views together. Her challenges at home are not diminishing, but we would rather delegate responsibility to her, who can empathise with such a range of protagonists, than any other.

More GDP per person does not mean more happiness (as the chart shows). An important initiative has been launched by Hazel Henderson to catalyse system change. At the root of our greed is good culture is reliance on a uni-dimensional metric, GDP, in a multi-dimensional world. As Henderson notes: "The G-8 summit in Germany and corporate CEOs at Davos worry about global climate chaos and their US-CAP group urges mandatory caps on their own carbon emissions. Soul-searching continues on the failure of WTO trade talks, the growing gap between rich and poor, the effects globalization and outsourcing of blue and, increasingly, white-collar jobs. There is little to reassure average citizens that any serious policy re-think is afoot.the one-size-fits-all conventional recipe for economic growth, measured by GDP, is being challenged not only on social and environmental grounds - because it is widely seen as failing." The Beyond GDP gathering launched in June will help leading nations develop more relevant metrics.

Blair left the office of UK Prime Minister handing over to Gordon Brown. Blair is also giving up his parliamentary seat as he was invited to become a special envoy to the middle east for the diplomatic quartet (the United States, the European Union, Russia, and the United Nations). Unfortunately this appointment, promoted by Bush, while attractive to western countries, has not been supported by those in the Middle East. His role in helping encourage peace in Northern Ireland may bode well, though the peace in Northern Ireland has been catalysed by a massive increase in wealth in the Republic of Ireland over the past two decades as much as anything. Also Blair's track record in the middle east is not good - he advocated war in Iraq and continues to rationalise that position. It remains unclear how broad Blair�s role would be. American and Israeli officials want him to focus primarily on shoring up Palestinian institutions and governance, economic development and security issues in the West Bank. It is a shame that the Quartet does not turn to the protagonists themselves for a solution, or at least an expert in bridging conflicts, like Don Beck (see Holonics below).

European Union leaders broke through years of deadlock on a failed constitution and agreed to a reform treaty they hope will allow the bloc to focus its attention on issues such as climate change and energy security. "What counts for me is that we have emerged from paralysis," said Angela Merkel, German chancellor. She was confident the treaty �which will introduce a full-time EU president, a beefed-up foreign affairs chief and a new voting system". It would come into force in 2009.

In the US, the White House issued a report in June saying, "Immigration has a positive effect on the American economy as a whole and on the income of native-born American workers." But it acknowledged that some research had found "small negative effects" on the wages of the least-skilled American workers. Over all, foreign-born workers make up 15.3% of the civilian labour force and account for half the growth in the labour force in the last 10 years. They differ in significant ways from native-born workers. Although only 15% of the workforce, foreign-born workers account for much higher proportions of workers without high school degrees and of those with Ph.D. degrees, especially for those working in scientific occupations. despite this recognition of the benefits of immigration (is America not a nation of immigrants?) the draft immigration reform bill is so complicated it is difficult to know what is allowed and what isn't and would slow the access of the most attractive immigrants - educated, ethical and hard-working ones. The approach reflects the US love of complexity in tax law and trade law. It is self defeating in a world were free movement of goods, labour and ideas is what enriches society. And restrictions on labour are not going to help moderate inflation, which is an ongoing concern of economic stability in the US. (The Economist: Guests vs Gatecrashers, BusinessWeek: Globalization vs Immigration Reform)

The economic pressures bearing down on Washington come straight from the American middle class. And with understandable reason: According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the median real wage has risen a cumulative total of just 0.9% over the 7 years ending in the first quarter of 2007. This is a particularly disturbing development for a US economy that is in the midst of a powerful productivity revival that would normally lead to proportionate gains in real wages. This disconnect between the contribution and the reward of American workers is at the heart of Washington�s political dilemma. The easy answer is to blame someone else, in this case, scapegoating China because it accounts for the largest bilateral piece of America�s record multilateral trade deficit. The real answer is to get to the bottom of the real wage stagnation problem and put policies in place that could rectify this situation. Blaming China will only exacerbate the problem.

Meanwhile China is dealing with its own challenges. A customary Chinese greeting from the years of rations and shortages, "have you eaten yet" ("sik yin ah"), is being jokingly resurrected in China as the public watches the prices of key staples, particularly pork, soaring. Authorities worried about social instability fuelled by inflation have been mulling over whether to steady prices by using the state strategic reserve of hundreds of thousands of live pigs kept at special farms for contingencies.This is the second time in six months that the Chinese leadership has had to resort to the country's strategic reserves to stave off politically dangerous increases in food prices. In December, Beijing ordered the auctioning of some of the state wheat reserves to halt the rise in crops prices and prevent panic among the public.

In late May Premier Wen Jiabao went so far as to visit a meat market in Xian where he called on local officials to pay pig breeders to increase production and tried to reassure the public that the situation is under control. As of mid-May prices of pork have gone up by up to 30% since the latter half of last year, and by 43% compared with the same period last year. Soaring pork prices have been partially blamed on outbreaks of contagious pig disease, which swept 22 Chinese provinces, killing 18,000 pigs in the first five months of the year and disrupting the pig industry. About a million pigs died from the disease last year. Pig feed, which is made mostly of corn, simply followed increases in corn prices. Also, China has been encouraging the production of biofuel such as ethanol and biodiesel from renewable resources to satisfy the country's voracious appetite for energy and reduce its growing dependence on imported oil, but, producers have ignored a government limit on converting about 3 million tons of corn into ethanol a year and used up to 16 million tons of the crop in 2006.

As far as popular unrest goes, that continues to foment where egregious inequities continue. For example, Xiamen suffered a popular demonstration organised by mobile phone messages to protest the construction of a chemical factory of questionable safety in a residential area.

At the end of June ceremonies started taking place in Hong Kong to mark the 10th anniversary of its return to China, with Chinese President Hu Jintao guest of honour. Hong Kong was returned at midnight on 30 June 1997 after more than 150 years of British administration. Buddhist monks held a bell-chiming ceremony, counting down to the moment of the anniversary. There were of course some demonstrations and police scuffled with several dozen pro-democracy activists who were trying to petition Mr Hu. Hu also oversaw the swearing-in of Chief Executive Donald Tsang's new cabinet, and left the territory before a pro-democracy march in the afternoon. Generously, China presented a gift of two giant pandas to Hong Kong; Lok Lok and Ying Ying have been drawing large crowds at their new habitat in the Ocean Park amusement centre.

The Economist reviewed the past 10 years of Chinese rule in Hong Kong with a special report: One-horse Race. It mainly describes a missed opportunity for China to experiment with democracy in Hong Kong. We also feel that China might have retained some of the freedoms emerging in Hong Kong - for better or for worse, it would have been a positive signal for their desire to engage Taiwan. However, expecting that from China was perhaps naive: China does not need Hong Kong, but it demands respect. Hu's visit illustrated this approach, increasingly successful in China's foreign affairs. A great celebration, a visit by the senior China representative, but all hailing China, not Hong Kong - notice the flags waived by children - Chinese flags not those of Hong Kong. Our friends in Hong Kong also give a hint to other clever strategies employed by China - population growth by immigration from China, effectively repopulating the place with their own blood in the same vein as invading barons of yore; and allowing pollution to rise unnecessarily. On the first, in the decade before 1997 the population barely changed, since 1997 it has grown 30% mostly by immigration from Guangdong. Pollution, previously bad, has become obscene despite the fact that the manufacturing base has moved to the hinterland of Guangdong and many high tech reduction measures have been on the desk of government for many years. (Eg I worked on a project to electrify public transport and taxis in 1993 - it was economic then but no moves have been made despite high levels of vehicular exhaust poisoning of pedestrians, especially children.) Hong Kong still has its distinctive energy and can do culture, but I wonder how many more years that can last with an insidious corruption from within. For those of you interested (as I am) there are some poignant reviews online: Reflections by the last governor of Hong Kong Chris Patten and a BBC review of Hong Kong's decade under China's flag. (Other stories:New activists march on, British few but faithful, Pollution clouds HK's future, China's balancing act, Hong Kong v Shanghai.)

Even if you're not inclined to read Charm Offensive: How China�s Soft Power is Transforming the World by Joshua Kurlantzick, the book review here gives a good summary of how China's geopolitical profile has become more globally proactive in the last couple of decades and how it is increasingly influencing geopolitics and culture. One example of China's healthy approach is that while the US builds a wall along its border with Mexico, China has changed its law to give migrant workers more rights. China's legislature passed a sweeping new labour law that strengthens protections for workers across the booming economy, a response to increasing signs of restiveness among tens of millions of predominantly rural migrant labour.

To wrap-up our comments on China, we quote below Andrew Leung, one of the most insightful commentators on China:

Russian energy giant Gazprom asked the government to cancel an agreement to pipe large quantities of gas to China from fields in Siberia because plans to deliver 80 billion cubic metres of gas a year to China would leave Russia short. The gas was due to be exported from Exxon Mobil's Sakhalin-1 project on Russia's Pacific coast. Gas shortages in Russia may be more serious than what is being said, or it is a strategic initiative by Russia, knowing that the value of fossil fuels can only rise. Other related events include the sale of Shell's stake in the Sakhalin-2 project to Gazprom after pressure from Russian regulators, and BP is waiting to hear if its licence for the Kovytka gas field in East Siberia - operated under a joint venture - will be withdrawn. Russian gas accounts for 25% of supplies to the EU and we are aware that most of our gas in Ireland comes from Russia. The Russian energy strategy should not be underestimated.

Thailand's ruling junta continues its extraordinary regression to authoritarian rule, similar to that being seen across South America (where Chavez took another step away from democracy by closing the oldest broadcaster in Venezuela). In early June it ruled that Thai Rak Thai (Shinawatra's party) was illegal and had committed electoral fraud, whereas the Democratic party was innocent - an obvious fudge in a country were everyone plays the same game, even if some have more money than others. This was a self-serving propaganda ploy not lost on Thais. It was made more extraordinary because it came in the wake of the King noting that several political parties are good for Thailand. Then soon after that ruling, the junta froze ousted Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's $1.6 billion in assets and then said he may return to contest the seizure. The timing is of course coincident with Thaksin's agreement to buy Manchester United, mmmm ... Interim PM Surayud Chulanont said he would personally guarantee Mr Thaksin's safety if he did return to Thailand, he has 60 days to do so, but one must question the legitimacy of this claim of amnesty given the junta's methods so far and the previous statements that Thaksin would be unwelcome until after a general election set for December. Presumably Thaksin can be represented by counsel in absentia. We will see how the saga evolves, and how much more damage the junta can do to Thailand's reputation a decade after the official milestone of the Asian Crisis (2 July 1997 when the Baht was allowed to float). I hope it does not descend to the point where young people self-immolate in protest, as has happened not so long ago.

The Republic of Ireland's Green Party agreed to join Prime Minister Bertie Ahern's Fianna Fail in forming a coalition government. The agreement will see the Greens in an Irish government for the first time and give Ahern some needed credibility as he is investigated for corruption and Fianna Fail comes under attack for neglecting social needs in Ireland. But for the Greens, being in government may be more of a challenge than expected. They may be forced in to uncomfortable compromises. Trevor Sargent, displaying honesty and tact, resigned as promised prior to the election in the case of a coalition with Fianna Fail - he will live to fight another day. For an insightful exposition of the challenge facing greens in politics please see this paper (referenced last month too) by Sascha Muller-Kraenner et al: An appeal for a new realism in environmental policy here.

To wrap up this section on Geopolitics we are offering John Elkington's summary of the recent SustainAbility report Raising The Game, which presents 4 visions of the planet's immediate future and 7 conclusions for managing in this environment. (It is further discussed below in Holonics.) We don't agree with all of it, for example there are other visions of the future which are more attractive, but still equitable, and the recommendations are not holonic, but generally based in incumbent mindsets. But they are a succinct catalyst of thinking. First the four scenarios:

Diamonds: This scenario is bleak - a domino-effect world, in which instead of Adam Smith's invisible hand, our invisible elbows knock over a series of economic, social, and environmental dominoes. Demographic trends and the spread of western lifestyles devastate ecosystems. The challenges come in forms that disable decision-makers and overwhelm society's ability to respond effectively. Over time, as fear closes down thinking and creativity, vicious spirals develop in politics, governance, economics, and technology.

Clubs: A world in which, among other things, the elites learn how to use environmental sustainability as an excuse for denying the poor access to their fair share of natural resources. One outcome is a slowing of the destruction of ecosystems locally, but this future is characterised by protracted periods of social tension -- broken with increasing frequency by insurrections. The waves of change build fitfully, chaotically, with closed societies and communities often operating in denial for extended periods. Over time, this erodes islands of sustainability.

Spades: Democratic societies open out higher living standards to growing proportions of their growing populations. One key consequence is that natural resource prices rise, but another is that ecosystems are progressively undermined, with most governments unwilling to take the political risks of asking voters to make sacrifices in favour of the common good. The challenges are managed to a degree, thanks to more open societies, but not well enough. Deteriorating environmental conditions gnaw at the islands of affluence.

Hearts: This is a world in which demography, politics, economics, and sustainability gel. It is the future that the Brundtland Commission pointed us towards. The early years of this scenario, however, are rough, with a global pandemic shutting down global trade. But in this case the challenges come in forms that drive positive responses, underlining the importance of shared solutions and inclusiveness. Over time, virtuous spirals of improvement set in, in most places. The outcome: a second Renaissance, but across a larger canvas. One key to success: a huge shift in patterns of investment.

Then are the seven recommendations to business and the wider sustainability movement:

1. Plan for the unexpected -- in a world that is accelerating and becoming more complex, it will be vital to build in flexibility whether in technology platforms, supply-chains, or human resource policies.

2. Find true South -- the extent to which the interests of the emerging economies will clash with those of the developed North can scarcely be exaggerated. So focus sustainability efforts and investments on regions and cities where the population is booming and development needs are highest.

3. Don't expect nice companies to come first -- even the best corporate citizens can be damaged by scandals, controversies, and economic discontinuities. Over time the capacity to create true blended value will become a defining characteristic of tomorrow's successful global businesses.

4. Co-evolve earth's immune system -- social and ecological shocks are already catalysing the development of a civil-society-led 'immune system' for the earth. Be part of this to help accelerate its development and serve as a source of market intelligence -- and creation.

5. Think opportunity -- and innovation -- reframe social and environmental issues not just as risks but also as sizeable market opportunities.

6. S-t-r-e-t-c-h -- the scale of the challenges is immense and will require radical approaches to catalyse breakthrough solutions. Take a look at the work of the X Prize Foundation. Business and other leaders will need to reach beyond their comfort zones in finding new models, new technologies, and new partners in sourcing -- and scaling -- solutions.

7. Do the politics -- this agenda is now political. Get involved and take stands, as the US Climate Action partnership is now doing. The time has come for the vision, courage, innovation, and enterprise needed to leapfrog into a different world.

Risk and Terror

Why is the US not at the top of the Global Peace Index? As the global superpower it should be setting the example. It is a bad parent that beats its children without reason, redress, remorse or alternatives.

At the end of June, the United States Supreme Court reversed course and agreed to hear claims of Guant�namo detainees that they had a right to challenge their detention in American courts. Its about time habeas corpus was reinstated!

We're impressed with Russia's response to US military posturing in Europe. In May, the US said -that they were going to enhance their missile "defence shield" in Europe to which Russia immediately objected. But then Putin came up with an ingenious proposal - "we'll do it for you". Putin proposed sharing an early warning system with the US. Russia's Putin surprised Bush with an offer to build a joint missile defence system in the former Soviet Republic of Azerbaijan. The proposed system would guard against missile attack from Iran. Experts say it poses serious diplomatic and technical challenges, but fact that it was suggested by Putin, and not immediately rejected by Bush, indicates desire on both sides to cool the hostile exchanges of recent months. The offer by Putin gives the appearance of a willingness to compromise on missile defence while calming jitters over his recent threat to again aim missiles at Europe if the US expands its European military footprint. The plan would require the kind of intense cooperation in which only the closest allies could engage. This has the dual benefits of keeping the arsenal level down and ensuring that both US and Russia are keeping each other straight. There is not a rational contention that the US can make without offending Russia. If this approach is copied it would help reduce armaments build-up across Europe and set an example for belligerent emerging economies, as well as moderate the US imperial footprint.

Iraq's ability to rebuild is being eroded from within as the majority of educated, competent professionals leave. The flight of Iraq�s refugees dramatically worsened after the February 2006 bombing of the Shia Al Askari shrine in Samara by Sunni insurgents, causing retaliation by Shia militia.More than 2 million Iraqis have now fled the country, with 1 million finding sanctuary in Syria, 750,000 in Jordan and up to 150,000 in Egypt. Interestingly, none of these safe-haven countries is a functioning democracy. By March 2007, the US had taken in less than 500, and agreed to accept only 7,000 over the next year, a fraction of those who have fled.
For example, at the basic level of finding a neighbourhood doctor, let alone a surgeon, is now nearly impossible. Some 12,000 physicians have fled. From turning on a water tap to banking money to educating children, Iraq is a collapsed society.

Even the desire for revenge, or retribution, has been muted by misery of everyday life in Iraq. Saddam Hussein's cousin Ali Hassan al-Majid, known as Chemical Ali for his gassing of Kurds, was found guilty of genocide and sentenced to die. Two other high-ranking officials were also given the death sentence: Sultan Hashem Ahmed, who commanded army during attacks on Kurds, and Hussein Rashid al-Tikriti, deputy chief of staff. However, the end of the trial comes at time when Iraqi public interest in trials has flagged reflecting exhaustion with the war in Iraq, and the growing inclination of Iraqis, even those whose families suffered grievously under Hussein, to say that life was never as miserable as it has become under daily cycle of suicide bombings and death-squad killings, and deprivation of basic public services.

The surge reached full capacity in June. There are now 30,000 troops in Baghdad, and a total of 155,000 in the whole country. There may be some improved stability, but it is difficult to say given the continuing killing and sectarian strife. And General Petraeus, in charge of the forces, say that counter insurgency operations can last 9 or 10 years before success may be an underestimate given the record of the Middle East, or even Northern Ireland. The solution is still not a military one. Jobs and education are needed, industrial and social infrastructure must be rejuvenated, the drivers of change must be Iraqi and local neighbours should be involved.

The difficulty in Palestine continued as Hamas and Fatah factions polarise the people. The unofficial Palestinian poet laureate Mahmoud Darwish sadly says: June amazed us on its fortieth anniversary: if we do not find someone to defeat us again, we defeat ourselves with our own hands so as not to forget! A further fragmentation of Palestine seems increasingly possible as Gaza and the West Bank drift apart.

A day of national mourning was declared after anti-Syrian MP, Walid Eido, and nine other people were killed in Beirut. Thousands of supporters of the Western-backed government lined the streets for the funeral procession. Shops, banks and schools were closed. He is the sixth leading anti-Syrian figure to be killed since 2005.

Feb 2005: Former PM Rafik Hariri
June 2005: Anti-Syria journalist Samir Kassir
June 2005: Ex-Communist leader George Hawi
Dec 2005: Anti-Syria MP Gebran Tueni
Nov 2006: Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel
June 2007: Anti-Syria MP Walid Eido

Energy

In June oil prices topped $70 in the US, hitting the highest level in 10 months on fears that more crude will need to be refined to boost petrol stocks, which have declined just as the US summer driving season, a period of peak of demand, is about to begin. A number of refineries are also about to start working again after a break, increasing demand for crude oil. Analysts said that price gains may be limited because crude stockpiles were increasing, and once petrol stores were replenished markets could see a dip in demand.

Global investment in sustainable energy is soaring on the back of concern over climate change, high oil prices and growing government support, according to a UN report, Global Trends in Sustainable Energy Investments, 2007. "Capital flowing into renewable energy climbed from 80 billion dollars in 2005 to a record 100 billion dollars in 2006," the United Nations Environment Programme said. Sustainable energy investments grew 43% from the previous year in 2006 to reach $ 70.9 billion, while another $ 30 billion entered the sector over the same period via mergers and acquisitions, leveraged buyouts and asset refinancing.

With the biofuels industry growing so quickly worldwide, controversy is erupting over whether it is as sustainable as it claims to be. The debate about the sustainability of biofuels is complex and wide ranging. Biofuels, like clean-burning ethanol, could lead to major reductions in carbon emissions, but not if they're produced by carbon-belching methods. Climate change, energy independence and the environment, as well as social justice issues such as food prices, land use and labour rights, are all factors that enter into the sustainability profile of biofuels. Given both the positives and negatives of biofuels, responsible investors and consumers will need to discern how well they conform to real sustainability. What this is highlighting is that there is no quick fix or easy answer. As we have argued for some years now, system change, led by rich consumers, underpinned by integrity, is the only process that can deliver balanced success.

The grain required to fill a 25 gallon petrol tank with ethanol would feed one person for a year. Every time you fill your tank, think about biking, walking, mass transit or just doing something at home. Live simply so that others may live.

We have seen how sudden reactions can cause problems. For example, the diversion of corn to fuel has driven up US corn prices which has affected milk consumers in the US and the price of tortillas in Mexico, making it harder for poor families to put food on the table. This sudden demand for corn threatens sharply higher food prices world-wide, and not just in corn-based foods, warns Lester Brown of the Earth Policy Institute in several articles. According to Brown, �unprecedented diversion of the world�s leading grain crop to the production of fuel will affect food prices everywhere� because as �the world corn price rises, so too do those of wheat and rice.� As a result, Brown says, mass hunger could result among those populations that are already skirting the edge of starvation.

On the other hand, organizations such as the International Food Policy Research Institute believe rural populations could actually see a rise in incomes with biofuels, because the increase in corn prices could reverse the decline of small farmers world-wide, with widespread multiplier effects in rural communities.

But sceptics argue that the benefits will accrue to large, agribusiness firms like Monsanto, Archer Daniels Midland and Cargill, while small farmers are further pushed off their land and rural environments degraded by increased loads of pesticides, herbicides, and the loss of diversity to monoculture, thereby exacerbating the problem.

Potential impacts on soil and water are also an issue: if farmed unsustainably, monocrop plantations of biofuel crops could severely deplete soils, as well as contaminate water supplies and aquatic environments with toxic chemicals and synthetic fertilizers. But if organic or at least more sustainable methods are used, such as intercropping and integrated pest management, soils could actually be improved.

Security concerns also come into the sustainability equation. For example, poor farmers have been massacred and driven off their land by paramilitary groups in Columbia who are betting on huge profits from cultivating palm oil for biodiesel.

Scientists from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, writing in Nature, have said that fruit sugar, fructose, can be converted into a new type of low-carbon fuel for cars. The fuel from fructose called dimethylfuran can store 40% more energy than ethanol, and does not evaporate as easily. The scientists say that fructose can be obtained directly from fruits and plants or made from glucose - but more work needs to be done to assess the environmental impact of this new fuel.

Separately, a British report on biofuels says all types of waste products, including plastic bags, can be used to make biodiesel fuel.

A new study by RBC Capital Markets finds that almost all Americans say the country needs to be self-reliant in its energy production, but don't want traditional energy plants in their hometowns. In the annual survey, 9 out of 10 people said the U.S. needs to find ways to produce more of its own oil rather than rely so heavily on foreign sources and 8 of 10 said they were concerned about the country's energy self-sufficiency. Conflicting with that, 84% opposed the construction of an oil refinery in their hometown, 83% opposed the construction or re-commissioning of a nuclear power plant and 3 out of 4 opposed the construction of a liquefied natural gas facility in their city or town.

Four nuclear power stations would have to be built every week from now on if nuclear power is to play a serious role in reducing carbon dioxide emissions, a report by the Oxford Research Group has concluded. The group attacked the idea of a huge growth in nuclear power as 'beyond the capacity of the industry', and concluded that such a programme would 'stretch the International Atomic Energy Agency to breaking point' just in terms of monitoring and safeguards. The report argues that for nuclear power to be a significant part of our future energy mix, it would have to supply one-third of our electricity by 2075. This would mean an infeasible building programme of four new power stations every month worldwide for the next 70 years. 'Unless it can be demonstrated with certainty that nuclear power can make a major contribution to global co2 mitigation, nuclear power should be taken out of the mix,' the report concluded.

A fascinating study by Delphi projecting views on energy use and security to 2030 was underway. The questions themselves are useful to stimulating an energy strategy. You can see the survey here.

Dr. Woody Brock, in a recent paper on oil prices, raised an interesting observation; that Iran would not have net oil to export in 2014. This raises the danger that Iran is pursuing its nuclear programme for energy security, with the attendant risks of nuclear plants. It is more desirable that Iran is treated with respect by the international community so that cooperation may be encouraged and even technology transfer to enable the capture of less efficient oil resources, as well as alternative energy.

In the UK, a new report from the Energy Savings Trust finds that, despite many companies' beliefs, incorporating Green Fleet Management practices will save U.K. businesses � 2.6 billion per year at no additional cost. The Energy Saving Trust's "Behind the Wheel" report examines business leaders' attitudes to their company car fleets and their impact on the environment. The report reveals a worrying lack of interest from many companies over their vehicles' impact on the environment and their bottom line. Company car fleets are frequently the second largest overhead a company incurs. As well as making proven financial sense, running a green fleet can also impact greatly on an organization's carbon footprint and contribute towards greater awareness amongst staff and customers of a company's commitment to reducing its impact on the environment. The research also shows that consumers are becoming more insistent on a company demonstrating its environmental credentials. 58% of consumers say they still want to see more evidence of what companies are doing about climate change. But in the Behind the Wheel report, only 48% of the companies surveyed have CSR or environmental policy and of those only 42% take into consideration the impact of their vehicles on the environment in these policies. Other key findings in the report show:

Another real time example of why nuclear is not the answer: A nuclear reactor at Oldbury power station in Gloucestershire, UK was allowed to operate despite the fact it had not been fitted with a crucial internal safety system which would shut down the reactor in the case of a fire. Documents released under the Freedom of Information act showed that the Nuclear Installation Inspectorate, Britain's nuclear watchdog, judged Oldbury to be unsafe for operation during the next 18 months, but operation was allowed to continue anyway. Running the reactor without the necessary 'failed fuel trip system' increased the chances of a potentially devastating nuclear fuel fire to 1 in 1000; a risk which nuclear expert Dr. John Large told the IoS was 'unacceptably high'. The documents show that pressure was put on the Nuclear Installations Inspectorate by power station operator British Nuclear Group, which condemned the recommended delay as 'disproportionate'. The power station is now closed indefinitely, after a non-nuclear fire broke out elsewhere in the facility.

And just in case you missed the Yes Men's latest coup a pair of environmental pranksters managed to promote themselves as keynote speakers at the Gas and Oil Exposition � aka GO-EXPO 2007 � in Calgary. Masquerading as officials from ExxonMobil and the U.S. National Petroleum Council, the two appeared before an oil industry audience and the buzz was that they would deliver long-awaited conclusions of a study commissioned by U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman. They actually offered something a bit more revolutionary: a new fuel called Vivoleum, to be used in the event of a global climate calamity and made �by transforming the billions of people who die into oil.� �We need something like whales, but infinitely more abundant,� said the faux NPC rep �Shepard Wolff� - in reality, Andy Bichlbaum of the satirical duo the Yes Men. He then described the technology that would render human flesh into Vivoleum, a new Exxon product, with 3-D animations and a PowerPoint presentation. �Vivoleum works in perfect synergy with the continued expansion of fossil fuel production,� noted the ersatz Exxon rep �Florian Osenberg� (Yes Man Mike Bonanno). �With more fossil fuels comes a greater chance of disaster, but that means more feedstock for Vivoleum. Fuel will continue to flow for those of us left.� The oil industry crowd listened attentively through the presentation and only started looking quizzical after the speakers began distributing memorial Vivoleum candles, putatively made from the remains of an Exxon janitor who perished after cleaning up a toxic spill. The candles were really made of paraffin, beeswax and bits of human hair, �so they actually stank, as you might expect if you were burning a human being,� Bichlbaum said. The candles were mounted in boboches � little circles of printed paper to keep the melting wax off people�s hands � printed with the message: �80 percent Vivoleum� and commemorating an actor named Reggie Watts, who played the janitor in a tribute video shown at the event. See the news video here.

Climate Change and Environment

China may have already become the world's biggest polluter - much earlier than expected. The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency said China's CO2 emissions had risen by 9% last year, compared with 1.4% in the US. But the average Chinese emits just 3.5 tonnes of CO2 per year, whereas Europeans emit nearly 10 tonnes and Americans 20 tonnes.

Coincident with this news the top climate change official at the UK Foreign Office, John Ashton, has said that China is now building about two power stations every week, but there is no point blaming China for rising global CO2 emissions because rich nations had to set an example of low-carbon development for China to follow. "The West moved its manufacturing base to China knowing it was vastly more polluting than Japan, Europe or the US," Ashton added.

The G8 accord on cutting greenhouse gas emissions (noted in Geopolitics) has breathed new life into the search for a follow-up accord on global warming spearheaded by the UN. But emerging nations are insisting that any new pact against global warming allow them the "flexibility" they need to keep their economies growing. At the G8 summit, leaders of the world's wealthiest countries inked a declaration setting the goal of "substantial" cuts in global heat-trapping emissions and vowing to "seriously consider" Europe's aim of halving this pollution by 2050. Although it was not binding, the deal did meet one goal German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the summit's host, had set of assuring that the United Nations would retain the upper hand to manage the negotiations. The accord paved the way for talks beginning in Bali, Indonesia in December to find a successor to the UN-backed Kyoto Protocol on capping heat-trapping carbon emissions that expires in 2012. Europeans in particular had feared that the US refusal to ratify Kyoto and his initiative announced last week to seek a commitment from up to 14 of the world's other top polluters to a climate change pact would undermine the UN's leadership of the process.

European Union transport ministers have approved a plan to make airlines part of a carbon trading scheme aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Airlines will either have to reduce the amount of CO2 they produce or buy credits from other industries. The plan, which is expected to come into effect from 2011, still needs to be approved by the European Parliament. Airlines claim they are being unfairly targeted and have said that the scheme would cost them(presumably their customers) billions of euros. According to the airlines, the carbon-capping plan would cost them about � 4 billion a year.

Aircraft are responsible for around 3% of global carbon dioxide emissions. But emissions of nitrous oxides (NOx) and the formation of condensation trails (contrails) from water vapour at near stratospheric levels where commercial jets fly mean the actual impact on global warming is much higher � possibly as much as 10%. Air travel is also on the rise, with GHG emissions from international air travel jumping by almost 70% between 1990 and 2002. In China, air travel is growing by around 12% per year, and worldwide passenger air travel is increasing by 5% annually, a faster rate of growth than any other travel mode. Air freight has also been growing rapidly, though it remains a small share of total air traffic. For an activity that is largely elective and dominated by the world's financial elite, this has become a serious concern. Air travel has been characterized by some as an �environmental sin�, the equivalent of driving a gas guzzling sport-utility vehicle. Campaigns are under way to promote teleconferencing over international business trips, and taking holidays closer to home to avoid air travel.

Teleconferencing and minimizing unnecessary air travel often make both financial and environmental sense. But as more people in countries like China are able to afford airline tickets, worldwide air tourism travel is bound to increase. Most experts believe that humanity will take to the skies more than ever in the future, and air travel could double within fifteen years if current trends persist. By 2050, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change believes that aircraft could account for up to 15% of the global warming impact from all human activities. Talk is now turning to ways of mitigating air travel's future impact on climate change, and these generally fall within two spheres: technology development, and policy mechanisms. The aircraft industry is taking the issue seriously, demonstrated at a meeting of the International Air Transport Association in Vancouver. �A growing carbon footprint is no longer politically acceptable�for any industry. Climate change will limit our future unless we change our approach from technical to strategic. Air transport must aim to become an industry that does not pollute - zero emissions,� said Giovanni Bisignani, IATA Director General and CEO.

The Economist offered an optimistic special report on air travel: Fear of Flying. While decrying the pain of travel and its polluting effects it presents a vision of air travel which is enjoyable, cost effective and not so polluting, which we believe is unlikely to happen in the context of nature's realities.

June saw the last EU Environment Council of the German Presidency. Originally scheduled for two days, the one-day Council session featured four substantial legislative dossiers plus 19 smaller points. In addition to seeking political agreements on waste, water quality and mercury trade and storage, ministers discussed biosafety and biodiversity, vehicle CO2 emissions, genetically modified potatoes and the revision of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU-ETS). Agenda of 28 June Environment Council Waste policy page Water Framework Directive EU Emissions Trading Scheme EU mercury strategy.

The Co-operative Bank has teamed up with the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) to bring information about climate change, together producing a climate change tracker. It�s free and easy to use, and allows you to see the anticipated climate change and its impact in the UK over the century. It shows sea level rise, rainfall, average temperatures,and a gallery of possible impacts.

A study by the United Nations University, Re-thinking Policies to Cope with Desertification, suggests climate change is making desertification "the greatest environmental challenge of our times". If action is not taken, the report warns that some 50 million people could be displaced within the next 10 years. Tens of millions of people could be driven from their homes by encroaching deserts, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia. The study was produced by more than 200 experts from 25 countries. See map of projected human impact on deserts

Spring in the Arctic is arriving "weeks earlier" than a decade ago, a team of Danish researchers have reported in the journal Current Biology. Ice in north-east Greenland is melting an average of 14.6 days earlier than in the mid-1990s, bringing forward the date plants flower and birds lay eggs. The team warned that the observed changes could disrupt the region's ecosystems and food chain, affecting the long-term survival of some species. The scientists assessed how a range of species' behaviour was affected by the changing climate in Zackenberg, north-east Greenland, between 1996 and 2005. Observation of 21 species - six plants, 12 arthropods and three birds - revealed that the organisms had brought forward their flowering, emergence or egg-laying in line with the earlier ice melt. "Each individual time series has a very close correlation, so it is not just that the average trend is very similar but each species is closely coupled (to the ice melt)."

Research from the Rodale Institute shows that sustainably-farmed soil absorbs 30% more carbon than conventional agriculture, and switching farmland to organic would cut greenhouse emissions by 10% in the US (20% in Canada and most of the rest of the world). For a concise explanation of how organic farming could be a major tool in the fight against climate change check out the 10 minute online video "SOIL: The Secret Solution to Global Warming," featuring Canadian farmer Percy Schmeiser. The website includes an online petition calling on world leaders to switch subsidies from conventional to sustainable farming practices.

In the UK at least 4 people died and thousands were evacuated because of massive flooding. Some areas saw an entire months rainfall in one day. In China heavy rainfall saw half a metre of rain falling in a week.

The Economist contributed to the band wagon of reports on climate change with a special report on Business and Climate Change: Cleaning Up. They are absolutely right to say that business can make a huge difference and the only appropriate strategy is to clean up their act. Like Dan Esty's Green To Gold, it paints a realistic picture of what can and ought to happen, but like Esty's book, these approaches are only short term - five years at the most - but do not project the kind of system change that we will see beyond that, nor outline any vision of how natural limits will change the nature of opportunities. It is in the same mentality of command and control reactions that have served capitalists for the last few centuries. Nevertheless a worthy primer to help take thinking to the next level.

ICT

A survey in June offers a startling insight into the greening of IT: While 9 out of 10 companies in the UK believe that reducing the carbon footprint of IT systems is the right thing to do, 70% have no concrete plans to do so. Why the discrepancy? Change is usually one reason - organizations, like the individuals that run them, don't like to change, even when they know they should. (Otherwise, we'd all eat well and be physically fit.) But another hint can be found in one of the study's findings: 8 in 10 companies don't link power costs to hardware spending or IT budgets. In other words, there's no penalty for doing the wrong thing.

In the US, the PC Energy Awareness report found that computers left on needlessly at night cost US companies $1.72 billion a year in energy costs, and emit 14.4 million tons of carbon dioxide, enough carbon dioxide to equal the outputs of nearly 2.5 million cars. The report combines statistics on energy usage and CO2 emissions, alongside research on behaviour in the American workplace, such as whether employees are turning their PCs off at the end of the day. The data show that American businesses are wasting energy while we sleep. A mid-sized company, which includes about 10,000 PCs, wastes more than $165,000 a year in electricity costs for computers left on overnight. In addition, by turning these computers off, an employer can keep more than 1,381 tons of CO2 out of the atmosphere. Preventing that amount of CO2 from reaching the atmosphere would have roughly the same impact as taking 2.58 million passenger cars entirely off the road -- more cars than exist in the entire state of Maryland. Worker apathy and insufficient business systems are part of the cause for wasting a tremendous amount of energy. Power savings of significant value can be achieved only when all the stakeholders involved are satisfied, namely PC users themselves, IT departments -- who need to keep computers up-to-date -- and finally those tasked with managing their organizations' Corporate Social Responsibility credentials. According to the report, some people assume their IT departments need their machines to be left on overnight in order to deploy security patches and software updates. Others believe an on-board "sleep" or hibernation mode kicks in - which isn't usually the case. And, an alarming number of respondents admitted that they just don't care.

Add that to the cost of energy-inefficient data centres and the problem mounts. Data centres are prime targets for energy efficient design measures: a typical data centre can consume 25 to 50 times as much electricity as a standard office space. But the mission-critical nature of data centres has historically put other concerns - mainly reliability and high power density capacity - ahead of energy efficiency in the minds of owners and designers. Also, data centres usually have short design cycles that leave little time to fully assess efficient design opportunities or consider first cost versus life cycle cost issues. This can lead to designs that are simply scaled up versions of standard office space approaches or that re-use standard inefficient strategies and specifications without regard for energy performance.

Another report, by Bruce Nordman of Lawrence Berkeley National Lab's High Tech Buildings Project, summarizes work on the development of a simple, standard method of characterizing the degree to which a single server reduces its energy consumption when operating at low levels of computation compared to what it consumes at peak computing capacity (the "part-load" condition). The goal is to bring more attention to the issue, leading to future servers which save energy by having lower power use at part load. This 22-page technical report is likely to be of use to data centre managers and others in the server industry.

The world's leading industrialised nations have been forced to update privacy laws made obsolete by the huge volume of data moving around the net. Of particular concern to the 30 OECD states was the increasing amount of personal data flowing between nations. These cross-border torrents made it tricky to prevent unlawful use of people's data and for authorities to enforce existing laws. The newly adopted recommendations update a 27-year-old agreement. The 1980 guidelines laid the foundations of privacy laws amongst OECD states but did not account for the internet age, with instant access to global information.

A long-term research project has revealed a sharp division along class lines among the American teenagers flocking to the social network sites. The research suggests those using Facebook come from wealthier homes and are more likely to attend college. By contrast, MySpace users tend to get a job after finishing high school rather than continue their education. The conclusions are based on interviews with many teenage users of the social networking sites by PhD student Danah Boyd from the School of Information Sciences at UC Berkeley. In a preliminary draft of the research, Boyd said defining "class" in the US was difficult because, unlike many other nations, it did not map directly to income. Instead, she said, class in the US was more about social life and networks - how people define themselves and who they define themselves with.

Also, BusinessWeek Inside Innovation shared data from Forrester Research on US online participation by age. We found it interesting, though disappointing to see that the older groups, though online, tend to read but not produce content - this is a shame because the older groups are the decision makers and the ones with control over capital.

Apple has launched a version of its web browser Safari for Windows, competing head to head with Microsoft's Explorer and Mozilla's Firefox. Chief executive Steve Jobs said Apple "dream big" and wanted to expand the 4.9% market share Safari enjoys. He said Safari was "the fastest browser on Windows", saying it was twice as fast as Internet Explorer. A test version of Safari 3 for Windows XP, Vista and Apple Macs running OSX, is available for download from the Apple website. Apple is hoping to replicate the success of iTunes, which has proved enormously popular on both Macs and Windows machines. "We think Windows users are going to be really impressed when they see how fast and intuitive web browsing can be with Safari," said Mr Jobs.

If Windows Vista can nearly bring a professional to his knees, what'll it do to you? Read this experience before buying that new computer.

Holonics and LOHAS

Holonics

More than two years after the finding that DNA is only a part of life's genetic coding and RNA plays a critical, though unpredictable, role in determining genetics, that awareness is beginning to become recognised. (We first read of this in Dr Pratchett's Darwin's Watch back in 2005 and strongly recommend it. Also The Economist reports on the new findings here.) The results of ENCODE (the Encyclopaedia of DNA Elements) were published in Nature in June, and though only a small sample was analysed the conclusions demonstrate that the complexity of genetics is many times greater than imagined. The consequence of genetic modification of natural organisms are therefore also far less predictable than assumed. While the scientific study raises the challenges of genetic engineering it is unlikely that regulators or consumers will raise awareness enough to stem the flow of GMO into nature.

To celebrate the 20th anniversary of its founding (coinciding with the release of the Brundtland Report, which coined the term "sustainable development"), UK-based think tank and consultancy SustainAbility published a report projecting the future of sustainability over the next 20 years. In a blunt assessment of the business operating context in 2027, the new report Raising Our Game by SustainAbility (noted in Geopolitics) predicts that not only will there be new rules for sustaining business success over the next twenty years, but that "the game itself is poised to change profoundly. There will be winners and losers; but there is no more business as usual." More than two years in the making,it exposes the interplay of sustainable development and globalization that will define the future. "Navigating this terrain will challenge the global business community like nothing previously experienced," said co-author John Elkington. The study depicts four alternate scenarios for the year 2027 in a card game format, where clubs, hearts, diamonds, and spades represent various combinations of environmental and social wins and losses. "Grounded in the hard realities that business and policy leaders face now and through 2027, Raising Our Game is neither a starry-eyed look at a rosy future, nor a 'chicken little' prediction of inevitable calamity," said Jonathan Halperin, SustainAbility's Director of Research and Advocacy in Washington. "It is about the hard choices we face, and what they mean for us all down the road. As the stakes rise, innovation, entrepreneurship, and effectively sourcing ideas and talent from emerging economies will be essential to managing the worsening divides that now threaten global stability."The report's authors say the complexities of globalization and the evolving global sustainability agenda will define markets and politics in the 21st century. Where these processes will take the world business market, as well as their implications for corporate responsibility and sustainable development are covered in a variety of ways in the report.

Four scenarios are used to examine a variety of variables in which society and the environment alternately win or lose. The best-case scenario, "Hearts," finds a "second Renaissance," a world in which demography, politics, economics, and sustainability gel. The next-best situation is called "Spades," and although society wins with the creation of global, democratic systems, the environment loses when governments are "unwilling to take the political risks of asking voters to make sacrifices in favour of the common good." The worst-case scenarios are "Clubs," wherein the global elites " use environmental sustainability as an excuse for denying the poor access to their fair share of natural resources;" and "Diamonds," which finds demographic trends and the spread of western lifestyles devastating ecosystems and creating challenges that "disable decision-makers and overwhelm society's ability to respond effectively."

Discussing the Hearts scenario, the report predicts that "[e]conomic growth will continue but will need to be contained within a 'one planet' agenda." It later fleshes out this explanation: "if we are to have any chance of bringing our global economy back onto anything like sustainable lines, concepts like WWF's "One Planet Business' will be critically important." Download the full report, "Raising Our Game: Can We Sustain Globalization".

Health

Organic food can now contain almost 1% genetically modified content, thanks to a new ruling by the EU. EU ministers voted to allow a 0.9 per cent limit on GMOs in organic food, whilst retaining the 'organic' label and without a requirement to inform consumers that GMOs are present. Levels below 0.9% are deemed 'adventitious or technically unavoidable'. The decision has angered environmental groups, who claim that European governments will simply take the 0.9% level as an acceptable standard for GMO contamination, rather than keeping it as a 'buffer' against accidental contamination. Clare Oxborrow, Friends of the Earth's GM Campaigner, described the situation as 'completely unacceptable': 'EU Ministers have put the interests of the biotech industry ahead of consumers who believe that organic food should be produced to strict environmental standards,' she said. 'Organic farmers will now find it increasingly difficult to protect their crops from GM.' Friends of the Earth called for tough, new legislation to protect farmers from 'genetic pollution'.

An ingredient widely used in leading fizzy drink brands could have the ability to switch off vital parts of DNA leading to serious cell damage, reported The Independent on Sunday. The damage, more usually associated with ageing and alcohol abuse, has been linked with degenerative diseases such as Parkinson�s and cirrhosis of the liver. Concerns over the safety of sodium benzoate (E211), a preservative used in carbonated drinks, have existed for many years. There has been particular concern that when the preservative is added to vitamin C in soft drinks it combines to form benzene, a recognised carcinogen. Last year the Food Standards Agency ordered the removal from sale of four fizzy drinks brands after unsafe levels of benzene were detected. Now scientists at Sheffield University have identified another danger with E211. In a study in which the researchers tested sodium benzoate on living yeast cells in a laboratory, it was observed that the benzoate was damaging an important area of DNA in the mitochondria. Lead researcher, Peter Piper, said �These chemicals have the ability to cause severe damage to DNA in the mitochondria to the point that they totally inactivate it: they knock it out altogether. The mitochondria consumes the oxygen to give you energy and if you damage it, as happens in a number of diseased states, then the cell starts to malfunction very seriously. And there is a whole array of diseases that are now being tied to damage to this DNA, Parkinson's and quite a lot of neuro-degenerative diseases, but above all the whole process of ageing."

A couple of essays in the Far Eastern Economic Review outline the opening up of intellectual property in medicine. Thailand�s IP Gamble: Just Say �No�To Big Pharma shows that even at the highest level pragmatism must prevail in the treatment of people dying from terminal diseases like aids. While the copying of video and software DVDs happens in the back streets, because people otherwise would simply not be able to afford them, a similar rationale underpins the government import of generics to help relieve sufferers in poor countries. As this process accelerates it will underpin a more equitable approach to intellectual property protection, leading, as we predict in conjunction with an alignment of geopolitical and economic systems to natural law, to a general market of open technology within a generation. (Also see Thailand�s IP Gamble: Thailand Takes On Drug Patents.) Thailand and others, like India and Malaysia, are using TRIPS as a legitimising excuse, which allows "compulsory licensing" under special conditions, which drug companies say are not met. It is also worth noting that drug companies are changing their approach to R&D too - rather than focussing on blockbuster drugs, which take years to develop and approve, they are focussing more attention on more modest goals, which should reduce their R&D risk. Thailand, India and others will see the other side of the coin as they develop their own IP, however, currently the markets are weighted in favour of western countries as evidenced by the patenting of Asian rice DNA by US agri-pharma companies - an insidious attempt at controlling nature!

Environment

In June the World Health Organization released its first ever country-by-country analyses of the impacts environmental factors have on health. The data show huge inequalities, as the worst affected countries are developing nations suffering from a lack of water and energy infrastructure. However, according to the WHO, the statistics demonstrate that �in every country, people's health could be improved by reducing environmental risks including pollution, hazards in the work environment, UV radiation, noise, agricultural risks, climate and ecosystem change�. Worldwide, 13 million deaths could be prevented every year by making environments healthier, estimates the WHO. Poor air and water quality are the main culprits, and children in developing countries are most at risk. Encouragingly, the report indicates readily available clean energy and water purification technologies could have an immediate positive impact. The challenge is now to deploy these environmental solutions. Doing so will increase quality of life for those at risk and enhance overall global prosperity. The two most prominent environmental risk factors are unsafe water, including poor sanitation and hygiene; and indoor air pollution due to solid fuel (e.g. wood, charcoal, coal) for cooking. In twenty-three countries, these two issues are thought to cause more than 10% of total deaths.

The World Bank is alleged to have cut from a report research that suggests pollution causes hundreds of thousands of premature deaths annually in China. The move followed pressure from Beijing, which believes the material is too sensitive and could lead to social unrest. Information was cut from the forthcoming report after requests from two Chinese government departments. The Bank report, entitled 'Cost of Pollution in China', found up to 760,000 people die prematurely each year in China because of air and water pollution. High levels of air pollution in China's cities leads to 350,000-400,000 premature deaths, it said. Another 300,000 die because of poor-quality air indoors. Apparently, research showing that there are 60,000 premature deaths each year because of poor-quality water was also left out of the report.

Between 1994 and 2004, China's greenhouse gas emissions grew by 4% a year China currently depends on coal to meet two-thirds of its energy needs. It hopes to raise its use of renewable energy from 7% to 10% by 2010.

The inaugural US Organic Summit conference brought together more than 200 leaders in the organic industry, from business, government and advocacy groups alike, to discuss the current boom in organics and plot a course for the industry's future. The theme of the charter Organic Summit, "Renewing The Organic Conversation," spurred a much-needed dialogue among attending farmers, certifiers, manufacturers, retailers, academics and advocates. The Organic Summit blog allows participants to continue the discussions online.

Meanwhile in the US, ignoring more than ten thousand emails and letters from consumers and farmers opposing the latest industry-sponsored attack on organic standards, the USDA has approved a proposal allowing 38 new non-organic ingredients to be allowed in products bearing the "USDA Organic" seal. But the agency says this may just be interim approval, and has offered to extend the public comment period another 60 days (the original public comment period was only 7 days). The USDA's controversial proposal will result in the following:

The director of the UK Soil Association, Patrick Holden, has hit out at the supermarkets� centralised supply systems that he says expose the �tokenism� behind their claims to support local producers. Holden, who grows carrots on his farm in Wales, decided to speak out on the issue as a result of his own experiences. Earlier this year his carrots were delisted by Sainsbury�s because, according to the supermarket, they failed quality standards and were beginning to rot by the time they reached shelves. Sainsbury�s also recently delisted vegetables supplied by Prince Charles under his Duchy Originals brand. Sainsbury�s say that both suppliers put their carrots into a cold storage centre after harvesting �where they suffered rapid deterioration�. But Holden says that the very long distances that his carrots had to travel to and from the packing plant were an important contributing factor. Holden's carrots grown on his farm in Wales were trucked hundreds of miles to a packing plant in East Anglia (Sainsbury�s sole organic vegetable packing unit). Once washed, polished and packed they were sent to a regional depot in Bristol to be distributed to Sainsbury�s stores in Wales. He told the BBC: �My issue is that all supermarkets have adopted this policy of centralisation of supply.� He added that he and Prince Charles were "casualties" of the system. The conclusion, try to buy from the local market, box scheme or at the farm gate if possible.

In Ireland we were shocked to see misleading propaganda by a state organisation, the farm advisory body, Teagasc. It told farmers that GMOs pose "No risk to environment, human, animal health". Complaints were made to the government but it is not likely that much will be done in this atmosphere of apathy and carelessness. Teagasc, and others, should read Genetic Roulette: The documented health risks of genetically modified foods by Jeffrey Smith. It was particularly shocking in light of the announcement after the Green Party's historic agreement to form a coalition government with Fianna F�il, that the two parties revealed their agreed policy �to negotiate for the whole island of Ireland to become a GMO-free zone.�

Turning salt water into drinking water is not a solution to tackle global water scarcity, the WWF said. The WWF Report: Desalination - option or distraction for a thirsty world? by the environmental group said a growth in the energy intensive technology would increase emissions and damage coastal and river habitats. More attention should instead be paid to conserving supplies.

Attempts to restrict trade in two threatened shark species through the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species failed. Delegates voted down EU proposals to limit trade in the spiny dogfish, sold in UK fish and chip shops as huss or rock salmon, and the porbeagle. Some said it was an EU problem which the EU should solve. A scheduled debate on protecting another shark species, the sawfish, was postponed. Sharks reproduce relatively slowly and reach sexual maturity relatively late, which makes them especially prone to overfishing.

Lawnmowing season is at its height in the northern hemisphere. Remember that those small engined machines pollute far above their size, relative to cars. (One benchmark equates using a chainsaw for 2 hours to driving a car 4,000 kilometres!) The electric alternative may be more efficient, but mowing less and redesigning the garden are healthy alternatives.

Education

God and Mammon are not generally seen in each other's company, let alone in a business school classroom. But as more MBA students become interested in the potential for the private sector to foster growth in some of the poorest parts of the world, one student-led initiative has led to a most unusual alliance � a partnership between Vanderbilt University's business school students and its divinity students. The unorthodox partnership � the Project Pyramid Global Poverty Alleviation programme � was launched last year at Vanderbilt's Owen Graduate School of Management. The programme takes as its inspiration the work of Muhammad Yunus, the microfinance pioneer and a Vanderbilt graduate, and aims to give students the tools with which to create business plans that can help reduce poverty in the developing world. The idea behind Project Pyramid was to give students the tools and knowledge with which to apply business solutions to poverty alleviation.

By the age of three, children from disadvantaged families are already lagging a full year behind their middle-class contemporaries in social and educational development, pioneering research by a London university revealed. A "generation Blair" project, tracking the progress of 15,500 boys and girls born between 2000 and 2002, found a divided nation in which a child's start in life was still determined by the class, education, marital status and ethnic background of the parents. The results are likely to disappoint ministers committed to improving the life chances of disadvantaged children, notably through the Sure Start programme to develop potential in pre-school years. But the research could not establish how much more stark the divisions might have been without Sure Start's introduction in 1998. In a series of vocabulary tests, the three-year-old sons and daughters of graduate parents were found to be 10 months ahead of those from families with few educational qualifications; they were 12 months ahead in their understanding of colours, letters, numbers, sizes and shapes. Researchers from the Centre for Longitudinal Studies at the Institute of Education in the University of London found girls were three months ahead of boys on both measures. Less predictably, Scottish children were three months ahead of the UK average in language development and two months ahead in "school readiness". Mothers in Scotland were more likely than those in the three other countries to have jobs and set clear rules governing the child's behaviour. Similarly, Scottish fathers were more likely to read to their children, perhaps assisting early years development. Download the full University of London report (pdf)

New UK Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, has outlined plans to make education in Britain "world class", in order to meet the challenges of globalisation. In his Mansion House speech to the City, Mr Brown said businesses should be involved in every school and backed England's city academies programme.The chancellor pledged more focus on discipline, setting by ability and to review literacy and numeracy teaching.

The new prime minister Gordon Brown also established a new department for children and schools as he broke with the Blair era with the biggest Cabinet shake-up since Labour came to power. Brown has decided to split the education department into two; one for young people and schools and the other for higher education and skills. That will mean two education ministers in the Cabinet for the first time.

In the UK, GCSE candidates who suffer from hay fever are 40% more likely to drop a grade between their mock and final exams, research found. This figure rises to 70% if they are taking a sedating anti-histamine treatment, which can cause drowsiness. The study said one way to combat the problem would be to change the times of the year when exams are sat. The survey, published in the Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology, looked at 1,834 pupils aged between 15 and 17. The researchers compared exam performances in mock and final GCSE exams for the core subjects of maths, English or science to questionnaires on hay fever symptoms on the day of the exam. As many as 63% of those surveyed reported hay fever symptoms.

Living

If you've been reading the papers this week you might have noticed a thought-provoking finding. Apparently, nearly half of all young Brits are now relying on their families for help with scraping together the money for a deposit on a house, up from 10 per cent in 1995. That sounds about right. To my generation, the property listings are a bit like a celebrity gossip magazine; exciting but utterly unattainable.

When I talk to my friends abroad, they're trying to borrow cash from their parents too. Property prices in Dublin or New York are sky high, and in the US my contemporaries are struggling to pay for health insurance on top of it all. Yet I'm told that US government spending on healthcare is higher, per person, than in the UK. I guess it's expensive to subsidise drugs for seniors.

You'd think that the wealthy baby boomers would be paying high taxes to provide all that healthcare, but a lot of it seems to be funded by issuing debt instead. I wonder who will deal with the repayments?

Anyway, I'm writing to congratulate you on Dad's generous early retirement package. I know he'll be wondering what to do with himself all day, but I'm sure the final salary pension will stretch to a few luxury cruises. The final salary scheme at my employer closed before I was hired, but once I've put together the deposit for a bedsit, I'll try to save for my own pension - if the mortgage repayments allow that.

I wouldn't be so cheeky as to ask you for help with that deposit. I know you're worried about your central heating bill. The special low rate of tax on domestic fuel must help you a bit. It also encourages carbon emissions, warms the planet, and so may lower my own fuel bills in the future. It's a weight off my mind, it really is. Thanks!

I did want to ask something, though. The old saying is that rather than inheriting the planet from our ancestors, each generation borrows it from their children. If that's true, could I please see some collateral on the loan?

Dr Craig Venter says in the journal Science that his team successfully transplanted an entire genome from one bacterium cell to another, taking a major step towards producing life from scratch in the laboratory. He says he hopes eventually to use the technique to create designer microbes, which could produce artificial fuel or help clean up toxic waste. The ultimate plan is to stitch together artificial chromosomes, proteins and other building blocks with the aim of jumpstarting their designer microbe to life. Dr Venter concedes that this may be a long way away, but he says he has taken an important key step towards that goal. His team, essentially, snatched the body of another life-form and invaded it with a new genetic code. This, he says, will be a key tool in testing the artificial chromosomes - or DNA bundles - he plans to make. Mmmmmm - I wonder if this is as unpredictable as plant based GMOs??!

Venter patented the basic set of genes necessary for artificial life. This 'minimal genome' would then act as a 'chassis' for other genes, which could make an organism capable of producing medicines or fuels, or dealing with waste. But the potentially deadly combination of accessible genomic data and DNA synthesising capabilities: If some jerk then takes the sequence [of a dangerous pathogen] and synthesises it, we could be in deep, deep trouble. Hope Shand, Jim Thomas and Kathy Jo Wetter wrote this remarkable article on artificial life for the Ecologist's print edition.

The publication of the patent application has angered some environmentalists. The Canada-based ETC group, which monitors developments in biotechnology, called on patent offices to reject applications on synthetic life forms. The J Craig Venter Institute's US patent application claims exclusive ownership of a set of essential genes and a synthetic "free-living organism that can grow and replicate" made using those genes. It has also filed an international application at the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) which names more than 100 countries where the institute may seek monopoly patents. I suppose Venter will own us all!

At June's Consumer and Retail Summit, hosted by Reuters, business leaders said that even though companies are greening products of all kinds, buyers are unwilling to pay a green premium. Products ranging from clothing to laundry detergent, washing machines to paper towels, are undergoing environmentally friendly makeovers, and the demand for such products is steadily growing. But even though customers say they want to do their part to clean the environment and prevent climate change, CEOs say they balk at higher prices. Reducing packaging, developing sustainable alternatives to current products, and increasing energy efficiency are all ways companies have begun adapting to the green revolution. But changing customers habits won't be easy, leaders said.

Deloitte Consulting and the Grocery Manufacturers Association found that sustainability has moved to the top of the agenda for many consumer products companies. "Sustainability: Balancing Opportunity and Risk in the Consumer Products Industry," found that 85% of U.S. consumer business companies have active sustainability initiatives; most common are recycling and energy conservation programs. Although retailer requirements, specifically Wal-Mart, have been influential, they have not been the primary driver behind the sustainability movement: more than 60% of the companies surveyed said that internal priorities are the primary driver of these efforts, while regulatory compliance and Wal-Mart's packaging initiative are the second most cited drivers. The study found that consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies are ahead of most retailers in implementing sustainability programs, driven by internal motivations such as cost reduction, regulatory risk mitigation, and concerns over potential shortages of commodity inputs. However, both retailers and CPG companies cited several barriers to comprehensive sustainability efforts, including regulatory uncertainty and unjustifiable returns on investment.

But another study, from the consultancy AccountAbility, found that only a small fraction of U.S. and U.K. consumers trust information about climate change. Only 10% of consumers in the United States and the U.K. believe efforts by governments and companies to inform them about climate change, according to the study from AccountAbility. The report, "What Assures Consumers on Climate Change?" finds that rather than trust institutions and corporations, most people in the instead trust information from friends, family and environmental groups. Even though 54% said they were willing to make personal sacrifices to fight climate change, three-quarters of respondents still feel unable to take action.

A city free of cars, pedestrian-friendly, powered by renewable energy and surrounded by wind and photovoltaic farms - all in the middle of a petroleum-rich desert. This $ 5 billion plan, which might do credit to a sci-fi film set, is envisaged for Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). When complete, in 2009, it will be the nearest thing yet to a zero-carbon, zero-waste city. Using the traditional planning principles of a walled city, together with existing technologies to achieve sustainable development, this 6 sq km expanse will house an energy, science and technology community. Called the Masdar (meaning �source' in Arabic) Initiative, this ambitious plan for a 'Green City' is being driven by the Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company, a private, joint stock company established and wholly-owned by Mubadala Development Company.

Young Americans are more likely than the general public to favour a government-run universal health care insurance system, an open-door policy on immigration and the legalization of gay marriage, according to a New York Times/CBS News/MTV poll. The poll also found that they are more likely to say the war in Iraq is heading to a successful conclusion. The poll offers a snapshot of a group whose energy and idealism have always been as alluring to politicians as its scattered focus and shifting interests have been frustrating. It found that substantially more Americans ages 17 to 29 than four years ago are paying attention to the presidential race. But they appeared to be really familiar with only two of the candidates, Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton.

The European Parliament has backed a ban on cat and dog fur imports, in a move to curb the slaughter of millions of cats and dogs in China. MEPs say shoppers buy goods made with the fur unknowingly, because exporters attach false labels. It is used in coats, linings for boots and gloves, stuffed toys, and even homeopathic aids for arthritis. MEPs have agreed with EU member states on the text of the law, which will come into effect from 31 December 2008. Is farming cats and dogs for their skin or fur worse than using any other animal? rightly asks BBC Europe editor Mark Mardell. Read Mark's thoughts in full.

Activities and Media

June became very busy as school holidays started and we find days are now more occupied with children than normal. Lots of fun and rewarding, but some of the chores can get delayed.

We also had a very special visit - our first from China! A good friend stopped by for a week so we enjoyed some real Chinese cooking and had first hand tales of life in Hong Kong at the 10 year handover anniversary.

The first harvest came in with broad beans, garlic and lettuce. If the weather would become a bit more summery the harvest would accelerate but so far it has been wetter than normal (as evidenced by floods around the world from US to UK to Germany to Pakistan to India to China!). The rain has also delayed our roofing project ... hopefully that will be remedied before winter!

On the book front, Daniel Goleman's Working With Emotional Intelligence is not as insightful as his earlier book Emotional Intelligence. It is a litany of case studies to prove a point. While interesting it does not offer the same insightful understanding that he might have tried for. As a management guide Maverick is much better and Goleman's perspective would be improved by combining his science with Semler's story.

And if you enjoy online debates check out friction.tv a new website set up to promote free speech and uncensored debate, and soon to be co-hosting online debates with the Ecologist. In a world where people seem most interested in Paris Hilton�s prison exploits, it�s reassuring to see that a site as openly committed to raising the bar of debate has already had 250,000 people using it in its first three months - more than YouTube did at the same stage in its growth.

And By Kids For Kids encourages young people to imagine, research, plan, and invent their own games and toys, vying for honours in such competitions as the Mattel-sponsored "Invent-a-Toy World Games." Winning toys in the 2007 competition include an indoor campfire, complete with a recorder for capturing your ghost stories and campfire songs; a waterworks building toy with real plumbing; and a game called Xoomball that uses air pumps to puff Ping Pong balls into holes on a
game board. The site isn't just for kids. It also offers guidance for parents on encouraging their youngsters' creativity, as well as downloadable curricula for teachers.

While the networks tussled over which would land the first interview with Paris Hilton after her release from jail, the upstart Web site TMZ.com, The Web Site Celebrities Fear, was breaking most of the news. Its quite funny and in the style of a glossy magazine.

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The Big Picture

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spirit

About
Astraea

Astraea News and Views
June 2007

Perspective

Geopolitics

Risk and Terror

Energy

Climate Change and Environment

ICT

Holonics and LOHAS

Holonics

Health

Environment

Education

Living

Activities and Media

holonics The Big Picture

body

mind

spirit

About Astraea

Astraea News and Views June 2007

Perspective

Geopolitics

Risk and Terror

Energy

Climate Change and Environment

ICT

Holonics and LOHAS

Holonics

Health

Environment

Education

Living

Activities and Media

holonics
The Big Picture

About
Astraea

Astraea News and Views
June 2007