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Astraea News and Views
April 2007

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• Perspective  
• Geopolitics * Risk and terror
• Energy * Climate Change
• IT
• Integral systems and LOHAS
• Activities and Media
• For investment and trade notes see GRI Equity Review

Perspective

Eating A Mountain of Credit

We are living in a golden age.  There are many cultural and social similarities between today and the enlightenment era of the 1600s.  We have food, housing, entertainment, confidence and more.  But there is a darker side to our prosperity as there was 400 years ago.  The apparent wealth of the world remains vested in a few people which makes it impossible for resources to be shared, even if they are common goods (like clean air, water, energy, ...).  And the ability of our world to adapt to satisfy the needs of the majority of humanity is impeded by a culture that finds it difficult to share.

The system change that our planet needs is within us all, but it is repressed.  The X-culture that dominates global systems is born of a belligerent history.  The softer-side of humanity has been repressed by the need to feel secure.  Ironically, now that we are secure - we have the technology and resources to satisfy all life's needs - we continue to behave like primitive beasts. 

Why should that be so?  It is because at the margin of experience we compare ourselves to our peers, but our comparator is not the family next door, it is the family in the media.  We imagine that our peers are the Hollywood stars that pretend to live our lives.  Or the executives that we read about are simply a step away from us.  Or the holiday advertised should be ours.  Or the cosmetically enhanced features of a model should be our goal too.  It is so difficult for us to withdraw from the social hologram and realise that the illusion of success is unattainable, that happiness comes from integrity and that having stuff means having responsibility not freedom.  We have enough.  We have more than enough.  But we want more.

The age of prosperity that we are enjoying is underpinned by capitalism, or money.  Money is simply a reflection of our values.  Our value of food, goods, services, work, and so on.  It simplifies barter in a community which can understand this idea.  Credit is a derivative of money.  It still represents our values for stuff, both physical and meta-physical, but it also reflects our value of time (interest) and our value of risk (of our barter counterparty).  The phenomenon that has fuelled such rapid growth globally is the rapid expansion of credit, both in developed markets where credit cards, sub-prime loans, margin accounts and so on have spread through the population, but also in emerging markets, where credit is being introduced for the first time to many people, including those at the bottom of the pyramid. 

The result today is a massive increase of the number of people with credit and the amount of credit people have.  For all of these people, the story is the same: a person who has had little, has few savings and scrapes together the rent each month. has suddenly been given credit.  The credit gives the person the opportunity to fulfil their dreams and pay for it later.  This may be buying a house for the first time, a new car, a stock portfolio or a sewing machine. The willingness to accept the obligation to repay the debt is based on the person's own confidence in their own ability to repay, which may be enhanced by the sales patter of the creditor or the behaviour of their neighbours or media characters.  If parts of that illusion fall away, the fantasy must crumble.  If confidence lapses, people stop exchanging goods (they prefer to horde rather than trade), and this decline in activity means that debtors can not do enough to fulfil their obligations.  And that small default quickly avalanches through the population of creditors.  People lose face, lose confidence and may even lose their sanity.

To many this mountain of credit must seem like a delusion in itself - how can there be more money than stuff?  But that excess is simply the value of time (quantum capitalism again).  And everyone values time.  It is misguided to claim that interest is unethical unless the claimant places no value on their continuing life.  (The only people that may be said to have recognised the unity of space-time and do not inherently value their own lives are enlightened "gurus".)  In fact, it is more likely that as people are given credit, they place a higher value on their own life and thus time.

Whether humanity chooses to engineer a world in which our values respect nature or not, will determine whether or not this mountain of credit can be maintained or not, for two reasons.  First, simply, if the credit is used to invest it may be repaid, if the credit is used to consume, which is not nature friendly, it will not be repaid.  Unfortunately, much of the credit created in the past 5 years has been consumer credit and has been consumed. 

Secondly, the natural dynamic of planet earth is driven by energy, originally from the sun.  On a planetary scale, energy is the currency of life.  If our values reflect the values of life, the biosphere will survive, and money will reflect the natural flows of energy on this planet.  If we do not value life, we will simply destroy it.  This is not a doomsday scenario, simply a fact of nature which is only relevant when the dynamic of human values (money) has a direct impact on the biosphere.  It is not relevant at the level of a car, or a litterbug, or a dirty factory.  It is relevant on the scale of impact that humanity as a whole has. 

This perspective is relevant today because we have extended our credit well beyond historical norms both at a simple financial level, but also from the perspective of the biosphere.  The financial markets will be the first to crumble.  This is absolutely necessary in order for humanity to learn from experience.  If we do not, the decline of nature will be far more painful.  The decline in credit must occur because it has been built on optimism, rather than reality.  The next time we build global credit so quickly, we are likely to be more careful in our scenario planning.  And it is certain that our values will have enlightened.  We will value clean food over convenient food.  We will value community over virtual reality.  We will value authenticity over advertising.  We will not compromise on our ethics because "others" do, or because we can.  We will be responsible for ourselves, rather than blame the "system" for our problems.

In the meantime, to lessen the pain of an economic or natural slump, eat less.  At the base of our pyramid of demands is food.  And while many people exist on a modest diet, most of us consume far more than our bodies want.  And our food is cheap because we subsidise it heavily.  And these subsidies underpin an insidious corruption of the market mechanism for distributing food.  If we stop subsidising food in Europe, the US and Japan, our consumption habits would almost certainly become more healthy, our appreciation for food would match its worth and our agricultural practices would change. These changes must come in the coming decade if our food resources are to remain bountiful.  As research increasingly shows, the degradation of land and the reduction in its productivity is a global phenomenon that can not be exported.

And as we improve what we put into our bodies, our souls will be nurtured. It is evident that a lower calorie intake, and in particular a reduced flesh intake, improves vitality and extends longevity.  Appreciating the source of the morsel ingested improves the eating experience.  Perhaps it all seems a little far fetched, but our own little empirical experience supports this, as does science. While the time to change political minds will be long, you can help yourself improve body mind and spirit now - eat less, and a lot less flesh.

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Geopolitics

Oh dear, Wolfowitz in sheep's clothing.  He pretends to be nice, but plays dirty.  He puts the fight against corruption at the top of his list, but drags his feet when its time for him to apologise and take a punishment.  He won't step down till he's got the bank to pay his legal fees and let him out with a face saving media release.  So neither is his call against corruption honest, nor is any claim of wishing to benefit our world's poor - the legal fees alone would have paid for a few bowls of rice.  The only good that one can hope for is reform of the World Bank will be catalysed.

Russia terminated a couple of demonstrations by groups wanting a more open and accountable administration.  Both of them, in Moscow and St Petersburg, were quickly controlled by police and even high profile demonstrators like Gary Kasparov were quickly hauled away.  This is another illustration that the wealth and stability of Russia under Putin today is not to be trifled with lightly.  There is little protest from without Russia, in fact most foreign engagement is capital flowing into investment opportunities.  If Russia was seen in the same light as authoritarian Singapore, the image would improve.  But even without this more generous perspective, a few more years of development will have created a substantial enough middle class in Russia to maintain a stable geopolitical environment without such a need for force.  Today force is necessary, not to control teachers marching for democracy, but to control crime gangs that would be out of control without a strong central government.

Chinese President Hu Jintao called for closer economic and cultural exchanges between China and Taiwan.  Hu was speaking at a China-Taiwan forum in Beijing, aimed at improving ties between the two rival neighbours, where more than 30 MPs from Taiwan's main opposition party, the Kuomintang, took part.  This came a few days after Taiwan, seen by China as part of its territory, rejected Beijing's plan for the Olympic torch to pass through the island.  The rejection was unsurprising since it was proposed to go to Taiwan after Hong Kong and then back to the mainland, rather than the more direct route of going to Taiwan after Japan and then on to Hong Kong and mainland China.  It is unlikely that Taiwan will become part of China, but closer ties are welcome.

The duplicity of geopolitical superpowers has become glaring over the past month, particularly as the US demands one set of standards for others, be it in trade, governance or human rights, while its own behaviour is lax. George Monbiot makes a case for global governance, characterising current dynamics as "tyranny speaking the language of democracy". The call for a more directly elected assembly is increasing as exemplified by the Committee for a Democratic UN.  (Our views are discussed briefly here.)

Thailand's political risk was in the news again as the military government proposed a new constitution, which among other things calls for an appointed, rather than elected, senate.  The junta is losing support even from middle class Thais in Bangkok.  It might be a strategy to cling to power, or simply misguided.  Either way it is not good for Thailand.  Fortunately the underlying buoyancy of the economy and patience of Thai culture may help bring the politics back to normal.

The World Bank noted in a report on East Asia, that East Asia's economies now face huge challenges to cope with a widening rich-poor gap, severe pollution and ever-more crowded cities. Driven by powerhouse China, emerging East Asia's output has doubled in a decade, while its income per person has soared by 75%. By 2010, more than nine in 10 East Asians will live in a middle income economy but countries face new challenges to avoid a "middle income trap" and make the complex transition to high income economies. While the number of people living below the $ 2-a-day poverty line has fallen from 50% of the population to 29% over the past decade, wealth inequality has increased in much of the region

This linked presentation Shift Happens from Fischbowl Presentations offers enlightening perspective on the numbers behind geopolitics, such as, "if you're one in a million in China, there are 1,300 people just like you ...".

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Risk and Terror

Edward de Bono, one of the preeminent thinkers of our time, offered a revitalising perspective on how to address the problem of withdrawal from Iraq.  "Look at Iraq. If the US said they were going to leave on a certain date, then for every week without any killings, the date would move forward, and for every week with a killing, the later and later the date would be delayed. This way those who killed would not be seen as heroes but those keeping the Americans in the country."  While that is unlikely to be even suggested to the US administration, it illustrates that lateral thinking is required and useful.

The debate over a US pullout from Iraq catalysed reflections on the decision making process of our President of America.  While there is question as to how much influence others exert on his words and actions, Bush's behaviour as President, particularly his current position on Iraq set against his chequered history of drug abuse and trying to fill his father's shoes, seems to match the psychological profile of a person not making decisions for the right reasons.  Whether you are for or against George, he may not entirely be himself.  To read the science see, A Terrible Secret: The Psychology Behind George W. Bush's Decision-Making, and similar observations by Kate van Wormer in  Addiction, Brain Damage and the President - "Dry Drunk" Syndrome and George W. Bush.  Given the clinical analysis, one might draw parallels with mad King George III who would not give up the American colonies 2 centuries ago.

Amnesty International released a report on conditions at Guantanamo saying the often harsh and inhumane conditions at the camp were "pushing people to the edge".  It notes that conditions for detainees at the US military jail are deteriorating, with the majority held in solitary confinement, and calls for the facility to be closed and for plans for "unfair" military commission trials to be abandoned. Many of the 385 inmates have been held for five years or more, unable to mount a legal challenge to their detention.  "While the United States has an obligation to protect its citizens... that does not relieve the United States from its responsibilities to comply with human rights," the report said.

The FEER published an essay by Shaomin Li and Judy Jun Wu which discusses the role of public trust and its correlation with corruption.  Citing various statistics and surveys it presents two country models, one with high trust, the other low.  The conclusion is that in an environment of high public trust, costs of corruption are shared more equally among the population, whereas in countries with low public trust (read developed countries) the wealthy benefit at the expense of the poor.  Paying the cop for a traffic infraction is an example of the former, Enron is an example of the latter. (Why China Thrives Despite Corruption).  I don't, however, agree with the conclusion that it is harder to eradicate corruption in high trust environments; it should be made easy if market prices quickly replace the informal payments required to lubricate society.

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Energy

Europe's share of venture capital and private equity investment in clean energy is falling, as investors favour opportunities in the US and Asia instead, according to New Energy Finance.  NEF says that VC and PE investment in clean energy companies was up 68% to $ 8.6 billion in 2006, from $ 5.1 billion in 2005. However, while investment in the Americas was up 138% to $ 5.3 billion, and Asia saw growth of 45% to $1.3billion, investment in Europe dropped 2% to $1.9 billion.  It is ironic because Europe's policies have generally been more green.  NEF suggests a number of reasons why Europe may be falling behind, including: the traditional weakness of Europe's venture capital industry, compared with that of the US; 'Balkanised' national markets, each with their own regulations supporting clean energy; and bureaucratic processes for technology support.

The company makes eight recommendations for policy-makers:

1. Improve general macro-economics for innovation and entrepreneurship;
2. Identify and break down regulatory barriers to markets for new clean energy providers;
3. Reduce investment risk by improving stability and longevity of clean energy support mechanisms;
4. Use the public sector to create markets through preferential procurement of clean solutions;
5. Introduce pan-European standards for clean energy, fuels and technologies;
6. Promote the development of supporting services such as testing and certification, training, information provision and insurance;
7. Avoid the temptation to pick winners, whether through green funds or any other mechanism; and
8. Decouple technology support programmes from social and political goals.

Australia, and Ontario banned the incandescent light bulb and now at least seven U.S. states are thinking of following suit. Member of Congress Jane Harman introduced a bill requiring all bulbs to be as efficient as fluorescents by 2012. This is a fantastic example of what "can" be done. And the major bulb manufacturers GE and Philips embraced it.

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Climate Change and Environment

The report of the IPCC working group 2 notes that billions of people face shortages of food and water and increased risk of flooding, but you need not worry - people living in poverty would be worst affected by the effects of climate change.  Outlining the report's findings, Martin Parry, co-chairman of IPCC Working Group II, said evidence showed climate change was having a direct effect on animals, plants and water.Key findings of the IPCC Working Group 2 report include:

• 75-250 million people across Africa could face water shortages by 2020

• Crop yields could increase by 20% in East and Southeast Asia, but decrease by up to 30% in Central and South Asia

• Agriculture fed by rainfall could drop by 50% in some African countries by 2020

• 20-30% of all plant and animal species at increased risk of extinction if temperatures rise between 1.5-2.5C

• Glaciers and snow cover expected to decline, reducing water availability in countries supplied by melt water

It is the second in a series of IPCC reports coming out this year, together making up its fourth global climate assessment. The first element, on the science of climate change, released in February, concluded it was at least 90% likely that human activities are principally responsible for the warming observed since 1950. The third part, due in May, will focus on ways of curbing the rise in greenhouse gas concentrations and temperature. A fourth report in November will sum up all the findings.

In the US, the Supreme Court decided against the EPA, in favour of 12 states and 13 environmental groups, frustrated by the administration's inaction on global warming, which challenged the Federal government to regulate CO2 nationwide.  In a 5-4 decision in Massachusetts v. EPA , the Court ruled that the EPA has the authority to regulate greenhouse gases, and that states can sue to force it to comply.   Justice John Paul Stevens wrote the majority opinion, in which he said greenhouse gases are considered pollutants under the Clean Air Act, and as a result, the EPA has the necessary authority to regulate their emissions. In September 2003, in response to a petition by environmental groups, the EPA said it did not have the authority to regulate green house gas emissions because they are not pollutants! The US government is increasingly being pushed to regulate carbon from within, as this judgement shows, and from without by Kyoto signatories. In future US car makers may face stricter emission and economy standards, Congress is more likely to pass laws related to controlling carbon emissions, and of course there might be an increase in litigation by states and others alleging harm from global warming.

The UK Met Office released data showing that April was the warmest since records began.  The provisional mean temperature for the UK was 10.0C (50.0F), beating the previous historical high of 9.2C (48.6), recorded in 1943.  The average temperature for the UK over the past 12 months is also shaping up to record a new high of 10.4C (50.7F).  Meteorologists also expect this month to be the warmest April in central England for more than 300 years. The provisional mean figure in the region for April 2007 is 11.1C (52.0F) - that is 3.2C (5.8F) above the long-term average.Dr Sparks, one of the lead authors of a Europe-wide study, published last August, which provided "conclusive proof" that the seasons were changing, said that the latest figures from the Met Office came as no real surprise, and were consistent with climate models that projected a rise in temperatures. The researchers found that spring was beginning on average 6 - 8 days earlier than it was 30 years ago.

Packets of Walkers crisps (American = chips) have appeared on the shelves carrying the world’s first “carbon labels”, enabling customers to gauge the effect of their buying habits on the climate. The labels will show that 75 grammes of carbon dioxide are emitted to produce and transport 34.5g of Walkers crisps “from seed to store”.

The European Parliament's monthly move from Brussels to Strasbourg, the "travelling circus", generates more than 20,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year.  The Green Party commissioned a study by York University's Professor John Whitelegg which says the carbon cost is equal to 4,000 households in London. Nearly 800 MEPs travel by air, road and rail to Strasbourg - along with hundreds of EU officials, journalists, lobbyists and 15 lorry-loads of official documents. If the parliament stopped meeting in Strasbourg, it could get rid of more than 2,000 offices, a debating chamber and 50 conference rooms. The report was published on the same day the parliament planned to set up a temporary committee to propose new measures tackling climate change.

The Canadian government published its strategy on climate change, which acknowledges that the country will not meet its Kyoto Protocol commitment. Its new target is to cut emissions by 20% between now and 2020. Environment groups labelled the strategy a sham because, when combined with industrial policies, the country's emissions could rise. Canada is the first nation to publicly abandon its Kyoto target without leaving the protocol. Many other nations inside the protocol, such as Spain and Ireland, are a long way from their own targets; and the Canadian decision opens up the possibility that others will follow suit and choose not to meet their commitments.  The US and Australia are the only two countries with Kyoto targets to have left the 1997 treaty.  These three, Canada, Australia and the US, are heavily reliant on mining and extraction industries.

The World Resources Institute and the Goldman Sachs Center for Environmental Markets produced an analysis of ways to promote the policy and market structures for deploying low-carbon technologies to mitigate climate change.  While the fundamental conclusions are not new, the source of the statements - a bulge bracket investment bank - is. The report, Scaling Up: Global Technology Deployment to Stabilize Emissions, identifies a major obstacle to addressing the climate challenge: the daunting scale of potential solutions - reducing emissions to safe levels means transforming the way we produce and use energy, whether in power, transport, or heating and cooling, as well as many important industrial processes.  Furthermore, the report targets are only to maintain the level of emissions rather than reduce them.  Reduction is required to preserve the biosphere.

In the US, with more than $48 billion in funding for clean technology R&D in 2006 alone, it's clear that government, corporate, and financial have turned on to the promise of the technology. But a new report from Lux Research warns that the boom in funding for clean tech may be a bubble. Among the signs the authors note as suggesting a bubble in the making, IPO value for cleantech rose from $1.6 billion in 2005 to $4.1 billion in 2006, and venture capital raised climbed to $1.5 billion from $ 623 million, primarily on solar and biofuel deals. That investors are rushing to get in on these two sectors while avoiding other opportunities in air, water, and waste suggests to Lux researchers that an investing frenzy is underway.  However, while the frenzy may ebb, the long term need for alternatives will bring back very high growth in clean tech until it has predominantly replaced fossil fuels.

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ICT

The annual e-readiness rankings by the Economist Intelligence Unit shows Asian and African nations now catching up with big net users such as Denmark. The report says the digital divide is shrinking, partly due to broadband which is now cheap and affordable in almost every nation, but it warns that much hard work remains to be done to get the best out of the net for citizens and companies.

Following Dell's announcement to offer Linux, Dell is also redressing its policy of forcing buyers to take Vista.  Responding to customer demand Dell has restarted selling new PCs with Windows XP installed on them.  Vista has been upsetting PC users.  The decision reverses a policy begun in January that meant Vista was the only operating system available on almost all new home machines.  Dell's feedback site was swamped with calls for the return of the relatively stable XP software. Microsoft is keeping to a plan to stop selling XP even though surveys show a cool response to Vista among consumers (a poll by Harris Interactive found that only 10% of those questioned plan to upgrade to Vista in the near future).  XP will stop being available on new PCs from the end of January 2008.

Meanwhile, Microsoft is planning to push its software in developing countries.  It will  sell for just $3 (i.e. the marginal cost of production)  in some parts of the world to governments in developing countries, if they provide free PCs for schools.   Of course users (i.e. the governments) will be tied into MS software for evermore afterwards, at full price!

Chinese computer maker Lenovo has topped a ranking of the world's most eco-friendly electronics firms.  Compiled by Greenpeace, the quarterly guide to greener electronics report ranks firms by how green their production processes are and what they do to recycle hardware they sell. In previous reports Lenovo ranked low for eco-friendliness but in 2007 it scooped the top spot over Nokia, Sony Ericsson, Dell, and Samsung. Apple came last of the 14 firms Greenpeace profiled in the report.

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Holonics and LOHAS

Holonics * Health * Environment * Education * Living

Holonics

The following brief case study outlines the creative solution taken by the Spanish-owned utility Unión Fenosa  when it took control of eight state-run electricity providers Colombia in 2002 and discovered that more than half of its 1.45 million customers lived below the poverty line. The company's arrears portfolio was 500 billion Colombian pesos (€ 250 million), while its energy losses through illegal connections amounted to about € 50 million per year. Rather than cut users off completely from the grid, Unión Fenosa established a business  tailored towards the low-end consumers. The result was Energia Social, a subsidiary of the company's Electricaribe division. The new business differs from traditional utilities. It did away with the notion of individual billing. Communities with sub-standard electricity supply such as Santa Marta did not have meters to measure per-user consumption. The company therefore carried out a census to see what electrical appliances each home had. From this, it calculated an average consumption for each neighbourhood and charged the district accordingly.The bill is then be divided according to the number of inhabitants. Energia Social introduced a flexible payment system, enabling users to pay by instalments according to their ability to pay.  It also began collaborating with small local companies to undertake functions such as billing, payment, disconnections, reconnections and customer service. Operating under the Energia Social brand, these local representatives act as the face of the company in the community. To date, the approach has provided direct employment for 130 local people and indirectly created an additional 1,200 jobs.  Everybody wins.

A stimulating interview with Edward de Bono, one of the great thinkers of our time, was reported by the Guardian.  De Bono's ability to open up our perspective shines through and will offer insights to those familiar with his work as well as those new to it.

Health

Guns are not healthy.  Despite another school massacre, this time at Virginia Tech, America continues to believe that more guns leads to less violence.  Even commentary from students witness to the events on campus in April are reluctant to say better gun control would have reduced the possibility of this lunatic act.  The modest laws of gun control in the US are applied so laxly that they become almost meaningless - the shooter should have been restricted from purchase because he was registered as being unstable, and ammunition was bought online.  The saddest reflection of this tragedy is that even students - who have a tradition of being open in their thinking - seem reluctant to vote for stronger gun control.  When the US does move on from a primitive social dynamic in which WMD are considered household necessities, we will know that the country's culture has emerged to a more enlightened and interdependent dynamic.  At the moment, the trend is regressive - the current administration allowed a ban on assault-weapons to lapse in 2004 making access to AK-47s possible for all.

The link between exposure to chemical pesticides and Parkinson’s disease has become even clearer, following the release of data from two new studies. Scientists have demonstrated that farm labourers who are exposed to the weedkiller ‘paraquat’ are two to three times more likely to develop Parkinson’s disease, the degenerative brain condition that leads to paralysis. A second study showed that animals exposed to paraquat develop a build-up of the protein alpha-synuclein in their brains. Alpha-synuclein has been linked to cell death in Parkinson’s patients. Although the increased risk of Parkinson’s disease in farm workers has been suspected for some time, the link is difficult to prove statistically owing to the long periods of time between the initial exposure to pesticides and the onset of illness. These new studies made a breakthrough by determining pesticide exposure through examination of farm records, determining when pesticides had been bought. Recent research has suggested that by 2030, the number of people suffering from Parkinson’s in the world’s 15 most populous countries could rise to 8.7 million, an increase of more than 4.6 million on today’s figures.  Another reason to GO ORGANIC!

Environment

Official data in China shows that more than 10% of China's farm land is polluted.  While this may not pose an immediate threat to the nation's food production, the trend of deterioration of land combined with exploding need will put pressure on food production and increase prices.  This may lead to unrest that spreads to other sectors and countries..  Arable land shrank by nearly 307,000 hectares (760,000 acres) in the first 10 months of 2006.Excessive fertiliser use, polluted water, heavy metals and solid wastes are to blame as rapid economic growth has had a damaging impact on China's environment.  Its cities, countryside, waterways and coastlines are now among the most polluted in the world.  Heavy metals alone contaminate 12 million tonnes of grain each year, causing annual losses of 20 billion Yuan (€ 2 billion).  Unfortunately, clean-up efforts are often thwarted by lax enforcement of laws and administrative activity at a local level.

A protected rainforest in one of the world's richest biodiversity hotspots has suffered an alarming collapse in amphibians and reptiles, suggesting such havens may fail to slow the creatures' slide towards global extinction.  Conservationists working in a lowland forest reserve at La Selva in Costa Rica used biological records dating from 1970 to show that species of frogs, toads, lizards, snakes and salamanders have plummeted on average 75% in the past 35 years. The researchers, led by Maureen Donelly at Florida International University, believe climate change has brought warmer, wetter weather to the refuge, with the knock-on effect of reducing the amount of leaf litter on the forest floor. Nearly all of the species rely on leaf litter to some extent, either using it for shelter, or feeding on insects that eat the leaves. The researchers also analysed weather records for the region, which revealed a rise of more than 1C in temperature over the 35-year period and a doubling of the number of wet days. The study was published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

In order to meet future food demands, the rate of cropland expansion would have to continue at a similar rate to the past 50 years - about 0.8% each year.  In Assessing the water challenge of a new green revolution in developing countries, Johan Rockström and colleagues from the Stockholm Environment Institute, Sweden, analysed water requirements for food production in 92 developing countries, including India, Kenya and Nigeria, using data from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.  The expansion of agricultural land is a major cause of damage to natural ecosystems. The authors say that to meet the MDG target, 50% more fresh water (an additional 2,200 cubic kilometres per year) must be used for food production than at present. And if water production is not managed more efficiently, with measures such as better use of local rains and more efficient measures in water productivity in rain-fed and irrigated agriculture, the amount required will double by 2050, which the authors say would cause further degradation of ecosystems. This kind of data underlies the policy challenges outlined by the WRI/Goldman Sachs report noted in Climate Change and Environment above.

An Indonesian court has cleared a US mining executive and his company of polluting a bay on Sulawesi.  Richard Ness, head of Newmont Mining's Indonesian subsidiary, faced a maximum 10-year sentence if found guilty.  The 20-month trial began after local villagers said they had suffered tumours and skin diseases from toxic chemicals dumped into the water. There is no doubt that conflicts of interest and money underpinned this verdict.  Unless Indonesia is extracting a quid pro quo from Newmont, Indonesia and the environment are the losers at the expense of executives and individuals.

T-Mobile acted to cover up the results of a study into the health effects of mobile phones. The study's chief scientist, Dr Peter Neitzke, claimed that when the mobile operator realised that the research was going to have negative conclusions, executives immediately commissioned other studies which would produce more favourable results. The news came in the same week that some researchers drew a link between the radiation emitted by mobile phone masts and handsets and the sudden, rapid decline in bee populations across the world.

Much has been reported in the past couple of months about the decline of marine life due to overfishing.  National Geographic covers this theme in their April issue offering a colourful illustration of the devastation of piscatorial populations.

It looks as though New York will remodel itself to be more in tune with nature.  Mayor Bloomberg unveiled a 25 year vision to green New York City.  127 initiatives were proposed to clean up land, air, water, energy and transport.  The proposals are ambitious, but certainly achievable and will set a standard for improvement of large cities.

Orri Vigfusson won a Goldman Environmental Prize for his efforts, which have led to a resurgence in salmon numbers in the North Atlantic. He founded the North Atlantic Salmon Fund, an organisation that buys fishermen's netting rights in areas along the migration route of the fish. The award is described as "the Nobel Prize for grassroots environmentalism".   His latest coup was buying out the Irish drift netters (at last!).  Thanks Orri!

Education

The EFA Global Monitoring Report assesses where the world stands on its commitment to provide a basic education to all children, youth and adults by 2015.  There is a long way to go.

UK secondary schools are to teach lessons in "emotional intelligence" to improve classroom behaviour.  This is bound to yield dividends and will hopefully be copied. From the autumn, the "social and emotional aspects of learning" (Seal) project will be available to secondary schools in England. It teaches skills such as resolving conflicts, managing anger, respecting others and playing fairly. The Department for Education and Skills says pilot schemes have had very positive results in primary schools. The type of subject areas covered would include developing empathy - by showing how someone else might feel or another point of view; managing strong feelings such as anger and recognising the rights of others.

More empirical evidence supporting the natural education methods espoused by Pestalozzi and others was reported by the Institute of Education in the UK.  Research shows that babies do not gain long-term benefits from having stimulating toys to play with.  Toys and books had a major link to children's development at the time, but the Institute of Education found no significant future associations. The most important factor, especially for mothers with little education, was playing with and talking to their children.  The report's lead author, Dr Leslie Gutman, said toys and books in the home did have an impact on children's physical co-ordination and social development, but "it just doesn't have an effect 12 months later."

Research also shows that autistic children as young as three can raise their IQ levels with intensive tutoring.  A two-year study into the impact of early intensive behavioural intervention (EIBI) found positive changes in language and social skills.The regime involves children receiving one-to-one tutoring at home for 25 hours a week over a two-year period. The results showed that IQ levels increased among two thirds of the children receiving the early intervention, "very substantially" for more than a quarter of them.  For example one child moved from an IQ of 30 up to 70 and another from an IQ of 72 to 115.  Participants also saw an improvement in motor and social skills.

Children in care in England still lag far behind their peers, despite new figures showing a slight improvement in their performance.  A third of looked after children reached age 16 in 2006 without any qualifications compared to only 2% of all children that age. And only 12% gained the benchmark five good GCSEs last year, compared to 59% of their peers. The UK Department for Education and Skills had aimed to get children in care achieving school exam results which are at least 60% as good as those of their peers by 2006. Some 58% achieve the required standards by the second year of primary school, but this drops to 47% by the end of primary school and 30% by the end of Key Stage 3 (age 14).
This compares to 85%, 81% and 74% of all children respectively. This is a sad indictment of how we can leave our neighbours behind.

Similarly, toddlers who spend three or more days a week in nursery are more likely to become anti-social, worried and upset, UK government research, A National Evaluation of Neighbourhood Nurseries, found.  The evaluation of a € 500 million scheme to expand children's centres found youngsters were more likely to behave poorly the longer they spent in care, though the report also found 30 hours in care increased children's confidence. The research comes as teachers warn children are being "institutionalised" by the push to get mothers into work.

Also in response to structured learning and inflexible curricula and entrance criteria, pupils are being discouraged from taking A-level maths as schools in England chase higher places in the league tables.  The Royal Society of Chemistry said that as maths was a difficult subject, schools feared examination failures which would threaten their standings and universities are increasingly having to run remedial classes in maths. With league tables and university entrance governed by A-level points, easier subjects are taken.  In a paper entitled Why League Tables Have to Go, Dr Pike of the RSC said it was not unusual for students taking chemistry and biology to take another non-mathematical "quite unconnected" subject. This contrasted strongly with countries like China where maths was taught to all up to the age of 18.

Protein extracted from 68 million-year-old T. rex bones has shed new light on the evolutionary link between dinosaurs and birds.  Researchers compared organic molecules preserved in the T. rex fossils with those of living animals, and found they were similar to chicken protein. The finding is consistent with the idea that birds can trace a direct evolutionary line to dinosaurs. A US team of researchers who published the finding in Science journal, says their technique could help reveal evolutionary relationships between other living and extinct organisms.

Living

The results of a national survey announced this Earth Day (22 April) show that individual Americans view US citizens and corporations as behind the rest of the world when it comes to taking action to protect the environment. The survey, conducted by GfK Roper Consulting asked whether U.S. individuals are ahead, behind or equal to people in other countries in terms of being "green."  43% of Americans say their fellow citizens are lagging, 27% say they are ahead and 22% cite them as equal. Similarly, 38% indicate U.S. corporations are behind their foreign counterparts, 25% think they're ahead and 28% say they are equal with respect to environmentalism.

The UN reported that more than 100,000 people in rural India have benefited from an innovative loan scheme that helps families buy home solar power systems.  The $ 1.5 million project, led by the UN Environment Programme, supports Indian bankers who offer finance to people who want to purchase a unit. The sunlight-powered systems are used to light homes and shops instead of expensive and polluting kerosene lamps. In terms of greenhouse gas emissions, the UN says a single wick lamp each year burns about 80 litres of kerosene, which produces more than 205kg of carbon dioxide. An estimated 100 million families in India use kerosene lamps. Officials hope to expand the scheme to Tunisia, China, Ghana and Indonesia.   A system capable of powering two to four small appliances, or lights, costs about $300-$500.  The Indian Loan Programme helps its bank partners offer lower interest rates, longer payback periods and smaller deposits.  Most importantly though project workers have credited solar powered lighting with helping schoolchildren achieve higher grades, and better productivity for cottage industries. There are also health benefits associated with making the switch. The majority of homes in rural India are poorly ventilated, leaving the occupants exposed to harmful particles emitted by the lamps. 

Astronomers have found the most Earth-like planet outside our Solar System to date, a world which could have water running on its surface.  The planet orbits the faint star Gliese 581, which is 20.5 light-years away in the constellation Libra.  Our planet earth is heated by the sun, a star about half way through its 10 billion year long main sequence, after which it will become a red giant when it will boil planet earth.  Gliese 581c is a red dwarf which is expected to burn for hundreds of billions of years so may offer a habitat in 5 billion years when we need one. (What the 'super-Earth' could be like from BBC.)

The European Commission has released figures showing a rapid rise in the number of dangerous goods withdrawn from sale across the European Union.  The increase is seen in Brussels as proof that an EU-wide alert system is working better to protect consumers. The number of non-food items banned from sale more than doubled between 2004 and 2006. Toys now form the biggest category of hazardous goods on sale.  Examples posted on the website of the rapid alert system, Rapex, include:

• A teddy bear, which a child could take apart, and choke on the filling, or be cut by a sharp internal part

• A mini-motorbike, with a poorly guarded drive chain, and badly insulated wiring next to the fuel tank

• A counterfeit Superman toy containing poisonous high-lead paint

• A skin cream-gel containing a dangerous fungus

Mexico opened personal choice by approving a law allowing abortion on demand in the first 12 weeks of pregnancy.  Mexico City's hospitals will be required to perform the service and people may travel from elsewhere in Mexico or South America to get the service.

As the Pope turned 80 he published a book, along with other luminaries, discussing and promoting his belief in creationism.  This comes at a time when the "theory of intelligent design" has been discredited in law in America and when the "Atlas of Creation", an Islamic creationist 770 page tome is being distributed to Arabic, English and French speaking schools.  Creationists are in a difficult corner, because scientific arguments do not support creationism and ignorance is fast evaporating from congregations.  It is another sign of religious institutions being whittled away because they do not adapt to new knowledge, despite a growing need for spiritual congregation.

In the US, the Department of Veterans Affairs has agreed to add the Wiccan pentacle to a list of approved religious symbols that it will engrave on veterans' headstones. The move was part of a legal settlement with Americans United for the Separation of Church.  Recent data shows that there are more than 1,800 Wiccans in the Air Force alone.

Activities and Media

April was sunny!  The warmest and driest April that many of us in Ireland can recall.   While it put pressure on seedlings and budding plants in the garden, we all enjoyed the summer weather, especially over Easter holidays.  But we also checked our irrigation systems in case they become necessary later in the summer!

We also enjoyed a rollicking time as stock markets shot up.  But the roller coaster ride made us a bit queasy so we reacted rather bearishly and harvested some gains.

The overarching theme of the month for us though had to be education.  Catalysed by decision time for our children, we focussed on sensitive issues like boarding or not, bilingual or not, and curriculum.  I encourage you to browse the news reports in the education section above, though our reflections always come back to the natural methods of education and this is where our R&D will continue to focus.

The Bloodless Revolution  has been an enjoyable read.  It is surpising to learn of the luminaries from Bacon to Newton to Rousseau to Einstein that strongly advocated a softer lifestyle based on yogic principles.  Their various rationales for their unwillingness to kill for food is surpisingly broad covering science and philosophy, including Christian rationalisation.  An entertaining look back into to the history of enlightenment.

The Global Campaign For Education brings attention to the gross education deficits around the world.  We draw your attention to this subject because education is by far the most effective and lasting solution to poverty.

FringeHog Tags the World is a collaborative media project designed to build an interactive database of photographs and images that illustrate emerging ideas and trends impacting the future.

You can get access to Ethical Markets TV, founded by Hazel Henderson, by downloading and installing their toolbar here. A great media resource for those focussing on SRI, CSR etc.

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