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Astraea News and Views
September 2006

• Perspective
• Geopolitics * Risk and terror
• Energy * Climate Change
• IT
• Integral systems and LOHAS
• Activities and Media
• For investment and trade notes see GRI Equity Review

Perspective

September was naturally dominated by reflections on the fifth anniversary of the destruction of the World Trade Center.  Most of us who care to think about our world are confounded by the phenomenal contrast of our species, which can synthesise DNA and yet behaves so primitively that violence is the first resort of diplomacy.  In the name of freedom we restrict our own freedom and blame others. In the name of democracy we fuel sectarian violence and civil-war.  In the name of God and goodness we kill and allow  innocents to die from poverty.  Humans are a problem for this planet and we will cause our own extinction if we do not behave as if we love life more. [Editor's note: This paragraph refers to humanity at a species level, not a particular country or other subset. Some readers in the past have appreciated this emphasis.]

While people generally want the same things from life - peace and equity - there are strongly opposed views of how this may be achieved.  Readers will know that we are peace-mongers so I will let the reported news and views in Geopolitics reflect that, and here in Perspective will talk about two big picture reflections that have arisen in the past weeks.

The first concerns criticality.  Readers of this review generally believe that humanity's intelligence is enlightening.  Some will point to the problems of the world and simply note that they are big and need new thinking to resolve.  Some will point to new trends in environmental care, community engagement and governance.  Some will simply point to advanced consumer technology and the luxurious lifestyle that so many can enjoy.  Others are engaged in a community of conscious consumers who invest in spiritual development and LOHAS.  Whichever opinion group(s) you fall into, the data shows that enlightened systems and thinking are growing fast to replace flat world thinking.  But the debate remains: when will humanity's behaviour as a whole be dominated by an integral or holonic perspective?  Because until that change occurs, operating to a new paradigm is hard work against the flow.

I believe that the critical mass of new thinking is near. That critical mass of people is not 50% of the population. Most people don't influence trends, they follow them. It is only 10% or so of the population that determines the trends. And the preponderance of enlightened thinkers in this group is significant. This is natural because change agents tend to come from the privileged who are better educated and therefore further along the curve of intellectual emergence. In the sphere of science, Ray Kurzweil has articulated the technological singularity or time at which scientific advances accelerate logarithmically because of cross-fertilisation - and he reckons we are at the initial cusp of that emergence. And it was in an interview with Niall Ferguson of Harvard Business School, in which he discusses the forces of globalisation as permanent and natural step in intellectual development which is now pervasive, having reached its critical mass. The signs therefore indicate that the critical mass of leaders pursuing enlightened thinking is being reached now. In the coming half decade we will live through the tipping point in global culture from feudal, hierarchical competition to enlightened, cooperative, integral living.

The second reflection concerns our approach to education and nurturing children. While it is based on personal experience I hope it will resonate with readers and that our pedigree will give the idea enough support. I believe that the single thing we can do to address human failings is spending time with our children, dare I say it, love our children. When young people are neglected by family, even if they are under the umbrella of a reliable guardian, such as a boarding school, the natural lesson learned is survival. And that lesson teaches one to suppress empathy in order to achieve personal gain. If this lesson is not supplanted by compassion, and it rarely is, the resulting adult then exists with a colder heart and a learned and practical selfishness. It is appropriate for a child to be selfish, for a period, as it learns about social interaction. Unfortunately in human world culture, this lesson is compounded rather than adapted to a lesson for interdependency, and humanity perpetuates a society built upon values of greed and selfishness. In fact, a happier world is being created by love and sharing, and these values must be put first quickly, while we still may enjoy our natural world.

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Geopolitics

September was naturally dominated by remembrance of the destruction of the World Trade Center.  As might be expected the occasion was used for some political posturing, which generally reemphasised the divide in America of people for and against war in Iraq.  These statistical graphics from the BBC illustrate some of the changes that have occurred since 9/11.

Aside from the remembrances and the political posturing more signs came to light that we must move on.  Especially because the tragedy of the WTC has been used as an excuse for war in the name of democracy. 

Professor Joseph Nye from Harvard University in "Soft Power:  Making the World Safe for Diversity" summarises why this is the wrong kind of war:

Respect for others' cultural traditions is important for a successful foreign policy, but some Americans believe it is equally essential to promote the values of democracy and human rights that we believe in.

Encouraging liberal democracy and human rights, however, should not mean imposing American values by force. Democracy promotion is better accomplished by soft attraction than hard coercion, and it takes time and patience. The United States should lead by example and remember the historical wisdom of being the "shining city on a hill." The United States would be wise to try to encourage the gradual evolution of democracy but in a manner that accepts the reality of diversity.

And the NYT editorial "9/11/06 - view from America"

The feelings of sadness and loss with which we look back on Sept. 11, 2001, have shifted focus over the last five years. The attacks themselves have begun to acquire the aura of inevitability that comes with being part of history. We can argue about what one president or another might have done to head them off, but we cannot really imagine a world in which they never happened, any more than we can imagine what we would be like today if the Japanese had never attacked Pearl Harbor.

What we do revisit, over and over again, is the period that followed, when sorrow was merged with a sense of community and purpose. How, having lost so much on the day itself, did we also manage to lose that as well?

The time when we felt drawn together, changed by the shock of what had occurred, lasted long beyond the funerals, ceremonies and promises never to forget. It was a time when the nation was waiting to find out what it was supposed to do, to be called to the task that would give special lasting meaning to the tragedy that it had endured.

In the extract below, "Good and Bad Power:  The Ideals and Betrayals of Government", UK Prime Minister Blair's former Head of Policy, Geoff Mulgan, looks at the conditions that enable governments to act ethically and effectively.

Our best guarantees that rulers will act morally come less from imposing rigid rules and more from establishing powerful ways to call them to account so that others can judge if their claims are self-serving. Here there has been much progress with the spread of inquiries, commissions, as well as codes and rules.  Modern democracies are full of third party institutions - at an international level like the OECD, Transparency International or the big foundations - that can examine decisions and help the public to make rounded judgements.

Democracy is no longer directly threatened by competing ideologies. Nor does it look as vulnerable to policy failure as it did in the 1970s or the 1930s. Instead its biggest threat may be more subtle: the threat that the public may become such passive observers that they can no longer participate in decisions, and no longer calibrate their judgements. The great philosopher Bertrand de Jouvenel once wrote that a society of sheep begets a government of wolves.  Anyone who has practical experience of exercising power in a school committee or a local council soon comes to understand the complexities of power, and widespread experience of power keeps governments honest. By contrast too much centralization and too much power in the hands of technocrats and managers leaves the public detached and disengaged and prone to oscillate between excessive identification with leaders and excessive contempt, between populism and cynicism.

The great Italian political thinker Azo, writing in the thirteenth century, described the legacy of Rome as one in which 'the people never transferred power except in such a way that they were at the same time able to retain it themselves.'  This remains the best guarantee of good government, and the best description of the spirit with which any renewal of government, either here or elsewhere, needs to take place.

These views echo the enlightened rationale for peace and cooperation and we hope will become accepted wisdom soon.  It is not too late to change, and if we do not, the potential hot spots, like Korea, Iran and Russia, may prove to be more volatile than humanity expects.

Directly related to the rise in terrorism was an outcry over incautious words by the, not quite so conservative, Pope.  The Pope made a speech in Germany in which he quoted a medieval ruler who said Muhammad's innovations were "evil and inhuman".  Naturally this led to widespread condemnation in the Muslim world. It may even have caused violence as  gunmen killed a 65-year-old Italian nun and her bodyguard at the entrance to a hospital where she worked in the Somalian capital, Mogadishu.   A Vatican spokesman said: "We are worried about the consequences of this wave of hatred and hope it doesn't have grave consequences for the church around the world."  But the Pope continued his direct approach in another speech when he cited a passage from St Paul that risked being interpreted as hostile by Jews, which described the crucifixion of Jesus as a "scandal for the Jews". His apology was slow and not very apologetic: "I am deeply sorry for the reactions in some countries to a few passages of my address at the University of Regensburg, which were considered offensive to the sensibility of Muslims. These in fact were a quotation from a medieval text, which do not in any way express my personal thought."  (Read the Pope's speech.)  Fortunately the hubbub has subsided, but what is really needed is far more cooperation among religions.  In fact, if the world were to see a gathering of Christian and Muslim religious leaders it might go a long way to dissipating the religious facism seen in both communities.

Worryingly, China announced detailed controls on the distribution of news by foreign news agencies, banning all content  that violates its own tight media restrictions.  The new measures, which took effect as soon as they were issued by the  official Xinhua News Agency, limit foreign news agencies to  distributing news only through Xinhua or entities authorized by  Xinhua.  The detailed rules ban the distribution in China of news content that  disrupts "China's economic and social order or undermine China's  social stability," Xinhua said.  The limits also ban news that undermines the country's "national unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity," it said.   Press freedom is an important part of social infrastructure required for social development in a growing economy.  Fortunately the internet, despite attempted controls, still lubricates information flows in China.

Thailand was thrown into turmoil and martial law in September when the army sent tanks and troops into the capital to wrest power from the prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, as he attended the United Nations general assembly in New York. This was the first military intervention for 15 years in the notoriously coup-prone country (18 since it became a constitutional monarchy in 1932). Waking up to this news in September made us very sad because a coup is not an ethical way to run society and there had been a long watershed of declining military involvement in the state.  This is a step backwards, though the superpower-US role model for behaviour has not been great.  Nevertheless, it might play out better than previous coups - it has been gentle and appears popular. 

It was organised by the commander-in-chief, General Sondhi Boonyaratkalin. The army threw a cordon of tanks round the government offices in Bangkok, seized control of television stations, and revoked the constitution. In a move to defend against a counter-coup, a senior general said Thaksin's main deputy, Chidchai Vanasathidya, had been "invited to stay" at Army headquarters.  The coup leaders ordered all soldiers not involved to remain in their barracks. Hundreds of troops were deployed at crossroads and outside hotels and near the royal palace.  The coup met no resistance and went largely unnoticed in the districts popular with tourists.  But street hawkers, fearful of trouble, packed up their wares and headed home early.

Political unrest has been growing in Thailand since Thaksin, elected in 2001, ignited a row in January when he sold a family stake in a telecoms firm. Faced with mass protests amid allegations of corruption and abuse of power, he held a snap election in April but the constitutional court annulled it and called for a new election later this year.  The King seems to be behind the military solution as the leaders of Thailand's military coup have been given formal royal approval, in a special televised ceremony. The leaders of the coup have announced army officer General Surayud Chulanont as the country's new prime minister.  It is planned to attempt to rewrite the constitution and hold elections within a year.

The US has imposed sanctions against Thailand in response to the military coup which ousted civilian Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.  The move involves cutting off $24 million in military assistance, according to the US state department. Ironically, a state department spokesman said the aid cut involved military education and training, peacekeeping operations and counter-terrorism. Funding for humanitarian purposes would however continue.

Apparently the coup may have been staged to give Thaksin an out.  It was catalysed by the growing imbalance between police (ex. Thaksin) and military (previously #1 power) and an upcoming political reshuffle. Its harbinger was the drying up of the black market for dollars last week - people knew something was coming. It was also done in a very low key way.  Most ministers (including deputy PMs) were out of the country.  All of Thaksin's family is abroad. The Minister of Defence (the senior remaining political officer and formerly army) escaped a couple of hours before his house was raided and the one other senior political officer was asked politely to stay indoors. For many it is a relief from the impasse that has festered since April. So while it is an unsavoury sight it may prove to be positive within 6 months.  It forces a relook at the constitution too.

Abuse in Africa continues, though it is of modest interest to most of us because it has little effect on the price of oil or our lifestyle.  According to UN humanitarian chief Jan Egeland sexual abuse in the Democratic Republic of Congo is a cancer "that seems to be out of control".  Delivering a report to the UN Security Council, he called on the Congolese authorities to act more firmly to end violence against civilians.  Following country visits, he said the situation in northern Uganda is now more promising than it has been in years, but the challenges facing DR Congo are enormous.   

In the Ivory Coast some 26,000 Abidjan residents have sought medical treatment, complaining of symptoms such as headaches, vomiting and breathing difficulties following a toxic pollution scandal.  The illness and deaths caused has angered people such that youths in Abidjan rioted, beating up a minister and burning an official's home.  Transport Minister Innocent Anaky Kobenan was dragged from his car, while the house of port director Marcel Gossio was torched, witnesses say. The two men are among those accused of responsibility for dumping the waste, which has killed seven people. The waste came from the ship, the Probo Koala, and has been found in at least 11 open-air sites around Abidjan.  The company which owns the ship, Trafigura Beheer BV, says it is extremely concerned and has sent oil and mining experts to Abidjan to help the authorities.  Prime Minister Charles Konan Banny's cabinet resigned and he said a deal had been signed with French firm Seche to work in the 11 sites across the city.

And in Sudan the killing continues while it has rejected a UN decision to send a 20,000-strong force to the Darfur region. There is no definitive figure regarding the number of people who have died, although a study by US researchers in September claimed the total was 200,000. Other surveys have varied enormously, suggesting anything from 70,000 to more than 300,000 deaths. More than two million people are believed to have been displaced.  (Quick guide: Darfur)

Oil rich Venezuela has been in the spot light for over a year now as it has nationalised some businesses and Chavez's socialist rhetoric is trumpeted.  But recent numbers on oil exports to the US shows what really matters to the US administration: not democracy and the rule of law, but oil.

U.S. oil imports from Venezuela, 2000: $15 billion
U.S. oil imports from Venezuela, 2005: $28 billion
U.S. oil imports from Venezuela, 2006: $34 billion*

At the consumer end, popular dissatisfaction by 7-Eleven's customers with Venezuelan policy has encouraged them to drop Venezuela-backed Citgo as its gasoline supplier after more than 20 years as part of a previously announced plan by the convenience store operator to launch its own brand of fuel.  Citgo Petroleum is a Houston-based subsidiary of Venezuela's state-run oil company and 7-Eleven is worried that anti-American comments made by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez might prompt motorists to fill-up elsewhere. Chavez has called President Bush the devil and an alcoholic. The U.S. government has warned that Chavez is a destabilizing force in Latin America.

Petropolitics also fired up in Russia as environmental permits were revoked for 2 major projects off Sakhalin Island.  Sakhalin I and II, led by ExxonMobil and Shell respectively are $ 15-20 billion projects which Russia will attempt to renegotiate.  Russia is posturing from a strong position - oil revenues have filled the government coffers and they are hardly worried about investors concerns of risk since the country is known to be prone to criminal violence let alone political contrivances.

Charismatic Koizumi stepped down at the end of September.  He modernised Japanese politics in important ways and leaves a proud legacy.  Abe, taking over, is youthful but beyond that a bit of a dark horse.  Nevertheless expectation is on the upside and we expect that Japan will continue to revitalise and reform.  A summary of Koizumi's legacy of change by the BBC is here.

The spirit of protectionism continues to run high in America.  The US Senate has overwhelmingly endorsed the building of a fence along part of the border with Mexico, in an effort to curb illegal immigration.  The bill was approved by a vote of 80-19 - with leading Democrats such as Hillary Clinton joining the Republican majority that had proposed the measure. The bill must be reconciled with a similar move passed in the House of Representatives.   Supporters of the 1,125km fence said it was a crucial tool to fight illegal immigration - which is expected to be a key issue in November's mid-term elections.  Unfortunately, it will be expensive, it will not resolve the demand for cheap labour in America, nor solve the problem of unregistered workers in America. And it is another example  of conflict, reminiscent of the cold war, that our world could do without.

A key issue at the IMF's meeting is how the organisation should change itself, with some critics arguing that it needs a fundamental overhaul. Despite significant changes in the world economy since the IMF's inception over 50 years ago, critics claim that it has failed to adequately reflect this in its power structure. This has been especially true when it comes to the voting power of developing nations such as Brazil and China, whose economies have boomed in recent years.  To address some of the concerns, the IMF is proposing to increase the voting power of four member states; China, South Korea, Turkey and Mexico, before looking at other nations.  India - though in favour of increasing voting rights for developing nations - is opposed to the IMF's two-tier plan.

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Risk and Terror

War has become socially dividing; it is breaking us up. So we suggest a change in our thinking.  Viewing Iraq as a military action results in very negative analysis from the  rationale for the action, to its implementation, its costs, an exit strategy and a legacy.  We ought to look at it, and from now on administer and execute it as, a global police action, rather than a military action. Considering a police action changes the tone of an international approach as well as the domestic reaction.  Police are civilians and therefore have a vested interest in the community they serve, whereas military bodies, whether foreign or national, operate outside the rule of law and therefore are seen less favourably. This vision may have been a compromise that was never reached in 2003. There is still time to do that and turn a vicious spiral of violence in to at least a stable society. The lessons of encouraging peaceful communities in places like Brixton, UK suggest a path to stability is available and quick.  The implementation of a police force, first via UN, and within a year, locally recruited and trained provides the infrastructure required to bring safety to Iraq.  The international community involvement will decline, in particular US influence of government and economy, so that help can be delivered with less political innuendo. All involved would save money and save face. One can at least dream.

In the headlines for much of September was the failure of the "war on terror" not least how counter productive it has been in both by raising terrorist fervour and in dividing America. A high level assessment of terrorism trends by American intelligence agencies has found that the American invasion and occupation of Iraq has helped spawn a new generation of Islamic radicalism and that the overall terrorist threat has grown since the September 2001. The classified National Intelligence Estimate attributes a more direct role to the Iraq war in fueling radicalism than that presented either in recent White House documents or in a report released by the House Intelligence Committee. The intelligence estimate, completed in April, is the first formal appraisal of global terrorism by United States intelligence agencies since the Iraq war began, and represents a consensus view of the 16 disparate spy services inside government. Titled “Trends in Global Terrorism: Implications for the United States,’’ it asserts that Islamic radicalism, rather than being in retreat, has metastasized and spread across the globe. An opening section of the report, “Indicators of the Spread of the Global Jihadist Movement,” cites the Iraq war as a reason for the diffusion of jihad ideology. Officials discussed some of the document’s general conclusions but not details, which remain highly classified.

While it is been shown by the US government itself that its approach to terrorism is counterproductive, this will not detract from the fear-mongering of the incumbent administration as it tries to scare voters into keeping Republicans in Congressional elections in November.  Bush and friends are also using scare tactics to loosen up requirements concerning wire-tapping and treatment of captured terrorist suspects.  Both worrying, the first because it avoids due process - a foundation of justice and America. The second policy on treatment of prisoners is worrying because it continues the double standard of one rule for US another for Others, it is un American and it has been shown empirically that hard interrogation just doesn't work.

Bush's new military tribunals' law gives him the power to detain indefinitely anyone who meets a broad definition of an "unlawful enemy combatant"; strips detainees in US military prisons of the sacred right of "habeas corpus", or the right to challenge their detention in federal court; and immunises US officials from prosecution for the worst of what they did at Abu Graib, or in the secret prisons where the most valuable captives were held. The new law will probably be challenged in court, perhaps all the way up to the Supreme Court. Bush seems genuinely to think he needs these measures to protect Americans from terrorism, but he is wrong. Americans will be paying for decades to come for this short-sighted strategy. It is unfortunate that we have allowed this law that is immoral and possibly unconstitutional. Rendition can go on as it did before, and if the US catches another al-Qaeda member tomorrow his interrogators would have virtual carte blanche for how they treat him. The military can keep its hands clean, while the CIA plunges into this clandestine mess.  And the negative repercussions, such as those highlighted in the government's own report, will be felt.

Unfortunately Canada, has been overenthusiastic too.  A government commission exonerated a Canadian computer engineer of any ties to terrorism and issued a scathing report that faulted Canada and the United States for his deportation four years ago to Syria, where he was imprisoned and tortured. The report’s findings could reverberate heavily through the leadership of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, which handled the initial intelligence on Mr. Arar that led security officials in both Canada and the United States to assume he was a suspected Al Qaeda terrorist. The report’s criticisms and recommendations are aimed primarily at Canada’s own government and activities, rather than the United States government, which refused to cooperate in the inquiry. But its conclusions about a case that had emerged as one of the most infamous examples of rendition draw new attention to the Bush administration’s handling of detainees. 

The concerns over Iran's nuclear ambitions subsided in September, though negotiation and posturing continues. The US pressed the Security Council for sanctions, but this must be managed gently because the moral high ground has been lost.  And, raising the risk in financial markets, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson raised concerns over the exploitation of the banking systems of the leading industrial nations by at least 30 Iranian front companies involved in illicit activities.

The nuclear threat continues to loom because of the inappropriate example set by America, Britain and others.  The rationale against nuclear weapons has been explored by Dr Strangelove, but a more sanguine picture is painted by Judge C.G. Weeramantry in The Nuclear State (2m 41sec).  He explains how the proliferation of nuclear weapons constitutes a violation of international law. Some nuclear powers, supposedly in favour of nuclear non-proliferation, are actively building up existing arsenals. He talks about the United State's missile defense shield and warns that the possibility of an incoming missile reaching its target demands careful consideration. A more sensible policy is one of total abolition. Nuclear powers can and must lead on this.

In Iraq killing continues. Sectarian cleansing has begun in mixed areas, with 100,000 Iraqis fleeing their homes in recent weeks. Veteran US journalist Bob Woodward claims that the true extent of insurgent attacks in Iraq has been hidden by the administration, as he releases his new book, State of Denial. Woodward has had better access to policymakers in the Bush White House than any other writer. In a preview interview he revealed that former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger has become a frequent adviser to President Bush.  State of Denial is a follow up to earlier volumes on the Bush White House which have contained a vivid detail of who said what to whom but have been largely uncritical of the President. Indeed, they have been recommended as essential reading by Bush supporters.

The farcical trial of  Hussein also continues.  Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki fired the judge overseeing the second phase of the trial of Saddam Hussein, accusing him of bias toward the deposed Iraqi ruler. Aides to Maliki said pressure had been building from Kurds and others to oust the judge after he told Hussein in court that he was not a dictator. The firing was condemned by human rights advocates as improper political interference by Maliki’s government, which is dominated by Shiites and Kurds persecuted during Hussein’s rule. Human Rights Watch said the firing “sends a chilling message to all judges: toe the line or risk removal.”

At the end of September Israel withdrew the last of its troops from Lebanon, fulfilling a key condition of the UN ceasefire that ended its invasion of Lebanon. But not before four gunmen attacked the American Embassy in Syria, storming the compound with grenades and automatic weapons before being repelled by Syrian security forces. Three of the gunmen were killed and a fourth was wounded.  People are not happy with the behaviour of America in the region.  The legacy left by Israel is drifts of stinking rubbish in Gaza and belligerent vandalism by young men with opportunity simply removed from them, closed hospitals, broken power stations - a hell.

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What is happening to oil prices?  They have dropped significantly over the past couple of months to about $ 60 a barrel.  We expect prices to continue rising with this retreat merely being a part of greater volatility that is a consequence of the complexities of globalisation.  Others expect demand for oil to drop as other energy sources come in to greater use; they expect substitution to occur relatively quickly.  We think that substitution will happen, but not in the next year.  The moment when a critical mass of change agents is reached will signal the change from increasing oil prices to moderating demand for oil.  This has not yet occurred and therefore we expect the current level to be in the bottom quartile of the price trend.  How far away is the inflexion point?  Our best guess is 2011 and that is gut feel for what is happening in the alternative energy field and financial markets as much as anything else.  The biggest sign of change will be a reorientation of US policy to embrace alternative fuels, even Kyoto.  If this happens it may be considered to be the inflexion point.

The table at right summarises some of the economics of alternative energy.  It is extracted from The Economist's  survey of climate change The Heat is On (see below Climate Change.)  The opportunity cost of not having a habitat are not included.  And they will be ignored by producers, policy makers and consumers, and therefore it seems that humans are pushing to adopt nuclear alternatives because we are lazy.

California made a bold move, filing a suit against the world's largest auto manufacturers, charging that greenhouse gas emissions from their vehicles have cost the state millions of dollars. It is discussed in Investment above.

Greenpeace International released two reports on the potential contribution of wind and solar to world energy demand. The first report, "Solar Generation", produced with the European Photovoltaic Industry Association, shows that solar photovoltaics  can realistically provide enough for two billion people by 2020. The industry would provide 2.2 million jobs and reduce C02 emission equal to the output of 140 coal plants. The report sets out a blueprint for a Euro 62 billion industry that supplies 16% of the world's electricity by 2040. Global shipments of PV modules are growing by 40% a year, with global revenue for 2005 estimated at Euro 10 billion. In 2006, the solar industry will invest well over Euro 1 billion along the value chain in new solar factories and R&D to increase economies of scale and to lower the costs for PV systems. The authors urge governments to create a secure environment for the industry's growth through support programs, primarily feed-in tariffs which guarantee a specific price for every kWh fed into the grid. 41 countries, states and provinces have introduced such a policy to allow consumers to operate a rooftop solar system economically.

Electricity produced from wind and solar energy could meet a substantially larger chunk of global demand by 2020-2025 if the right policies are put in place, trade associations claim. Current forecasts by the International Energy Agency indicate that global energy demand will rise by more than 50% by 2030, with 60% of that increase covered by oil and gas (80% if coal is included). Under the baseline scenario, the share of renewable energy grows from 8% in 2003 to 9% in 2030 while that of nuclear declines marginally, below renewables. Even under its most optimistic scenario, in which energy-importing countries take strong action to cut demand and promote alternative energies, the IEA still forecasts continued heavy world reliance on oil and gas by 2030. Under this so-called Alternative Policy Scenario, global CO2 emissions would still increase by around 30% by 2030, fuelled in large part by booming demand for oil and gas in Asia and an ever-increasing world population. Under the baseline scenario, CO2 emissions will be 52% higher in 2030 than they are today.   World energy forecasts published on 5 September by GWEC, the global wind industry trade association, predict "a serious shortfall between demand and supply could become evident soon after 2010". The report, entitled "Plugging the Gap", says the combined oil and gas supply shortfall could reach 10% by 2020 and climb to 18% by 2030. (See WCSBD report here.)

Separately, according to a new report by the Worldwatch Institute and the Center for American Progress, "American Energy: The Renewable Path to Energy Security", renewable resources currently provide just over 6% of total U.S. energy, but that figure could increase rapidly in the years ahead. Many of the new technologies that harness renewables are, or soon will be, economically competitive with fossil fuels. Dynamic growth rates are driving down costs and spurring rapid advances in technologies. Since 2000, global wind energy generation has more than tripled; solar cell production has risen six-fold; production of fuel ethanol from crops have more than doubled; and biodiesel production has expanded nearly four-fold. Annual global investment in "new" renewable energy has risen almost six-fold since 1995, with cumulative investment over this period nearly $180 billion.

Some of the findings include:

• America boasts some of the world's best renewable energy resources, which have the potential to meet a rising and significant share of the nation's energy demand. For example, one-fourth of U.S. land area has winds powerful enough to generate electricity as cheaply as natural gas and coal, and the solar resources of just seven southwest states could provide 10 times the current electric generating capacity.

• All but four U.S. states now have incentives in place to promote renewable energy, while more than a dozen have enacted new renewable energy laws in the past few years, and four states strengthened their targets in 2005.

• California gets 31 % of its electricity from renewable resources; 12 % of this comes from non-hydro sources such as wind and geothermal energy.

• Texas now has the country's largest collection of wind generators. The United States led the world in wind energy installations in 2005.

• Iowa produces enough ethanol that, if consumed in-state, would meet half the state's gasoline requirements.

• Renewable energy creates more jobs per unit of energy produced and per dollar spent than fossil fuel technologies do.

An ambitious EU energy-efficiency plan covers many areas and refers to a binding target to slash fuel consumption in cars. On 22 June 2005, the Commission tabled a 'Green Paper' on energy efficiency, outlining a series of ideas which it said could save Europe some 20% in energy consumption by 2020 and slash its energy bill by € 60 billion every year. EU member states have highlighted housing and transport as the sectors where the savings potential is greatest. But they insisted that the EU adopts realistic and wide-ranging measures such as soft law, product labelling, support measures, certificates and voluntary agreements. The document spreads action over six years (2007-2012) and consists of four pillars:

• Behavioural change with awareness campaigns targeted at consumers and the larger public;

• legal instruments to ensure existing EU laws are used to their "full potential" with a possible revision of targets;

• financial instruments including tax incentives and using sources of financing such as the EU's regional funds, and;

• global aspects including trade and development policy, international agreements and treaties to disseminate and export cleaner technologies.

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Climate Change and Environment

The Economist published their survey of climate change The Heat is On.  Surprisingly there remain sceptics that climate change is happening or that it matters, or perhaps that they can or should do anything about it.  This sobering survey should help persuade everyone that our behaviour is causing the death of the planet and therefore we must change.   Look at the disappearing Blomstrandbreen glacier,  1918 and 2002. A couple of graphics are presented here to summarise the message, but please browse the survey anyway.

Richard Branson, billionaire owner of Virgin Atlantic Airways, made a multi-billion dollar pledge at this week's Clinton Global Initiative conference to commit all profits to global warming solutions. 100% of the profits from the Virgin Group's train and airline businesses could amount to at least $3 billion over the next 10 years. Branson said, "It's important for the transport industry to support development of environmentally responsible fuels." He plans to use cellulosic biofuels to run his fleet of almost 100 aircraft. To do that, The Virgin Group also announced it would invest up to $400 million worldwide in green fuel technologies over the next three years. For the first deal, Virgin participated with several investors to finance California-based Cilion (see Investment above), which raised a massive $200 million - one of the largest venture rounds ever by a clean energy company. Cilion is a brand new company - formed in June - with plans to build seven corn-based biofuel plants by 2009.

The Carbon Disclosure Project is arguably the largest collaboration among institutional investors in history. This year's CDP unites 225 institutional investors, with $ 30 trillion in combined assets either owned or under management.  As in previous years, the group has written to the CEOs of the FT Global 500 asking them some pointed questions about their responses (or lack thereof) to the climate problem.  This year's "information request" had the greatest gravitas to date, with a seven-fold increase in shareholder assets behind the questions relative to the project's first year. The results, as always, were illuminating. Among the Report's most salient findings: 

• Climate risk potentially impacts a much broader range of industry sectors than generally acknowledged;

• The variability of climate risk is considerable, both between and even within industry sectors;

• Contrary to widespread opinion, climate chaos can also bring significant economic opportunities and benefits, including accelerating energy efficiency and the commercialisation of "clean" technologies;

• Accordingly, climate risk has three dimensions, not just one. In addition to the potential level of risk, investors need to consider two further factors: companies' ability to manage that risk, and their ability to recognize and seize commercial opportunities on the upside;

• For some, well-positioned firms, carbon regulations could actually be financially beneficial; and

• While investors as a group are now far more aware of climate chaos, very few have to date acted on that awareness by integrating climate risk into their day-to-day investment decisions.

ASrIA launched the Official Report for the first Carbon Disclosure Project in Asia. The aim of the CDP is two-fold. Firstly, to inform investors regarding the significant risks and opportunities presented by climate change and secondly, to inform company management regarding the serious concerns of their shareholders regarding the impact of these issues on company value. This report examines the disclosures from 125 Asian companies covering nine countries: China including Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. As a result, this year marks the first time that Asian investors have a representative sample of responses to evaluate on climate change fundamentals. This makes it possible to begin tracking important global sector comparisons and to assess different Asian country level trends.

The Bush administration continues its solitary resistance to cooperation in the fight against global warming.  The US government announced in mid-September that it will invest more than $3 billion in research to avoid global warming by developing "visionary" technological breakthroughs. The new Climate Change Technology Programme Strategic Plan is the technological component of the climate-change strategy presented by Bush in 2002. The main technologies to be developed under the programme are hydrogen, biorefining, clean coal and carbon sequestration, nuclear fission and fusion. Energy efficiency, one of Europe's main responses to fight climate change, is noticeable by its absence from the programme.

When daylight returns to the South Pole after the total darkness of the polar winter, it sets off a series of chemical reactions that destroy ozone in the stratosphere. As spring progresses in the Southern Hemisphere, NASA satellites observe the resulting development of the Antarctic “ozone hole,” an area of exceptionally low concentrations of stratospheric ozone. The hole begins to develop in mid-August each year and peaks in late September or early October. As summer approaches, weather conditions become less favorable for the ozone-destroying reactions, and the ozone layer stabilizes until the next spring.

This image from September 29, 2006, shows the ozone concentration in the stratosphere above the South Pole observed by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument on NASA’s Aura satellite. Greens and yellows show areas with the highest ozone amounts, while blues and purples show where ozone amounts are lowest. A purple veil of extremely low levels of ozone stretches across most of Antarctica, which is roughly centered in the image. Ozone Hole Watch

Researchers from the Marine Biological Laboratory, Massachusetts have calculated that rising precipitation and melting ice are flushing enough fresh water in to the Arctic Ocean that the direction of flow of the great ocean currents (the drift streams) may be reversed within a century.  This is much sooner than previously thought and will bring rapid climate change to many parts of the world and habitats that rely on ocean warming and cooling for their existence.

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IT

There has been much comment about Yahoo’s disappointing online ad sales results, with some wondering if the burgeoning online ad boom has stalled. Some suggest that this probably has more to do with Yahoo’s slow adoption of new technologies (as ZDNet’s Ryan Stewart argues), plus some cannibalization of Google/Yahoo by social networking sites like MySpace. Either way the news makes certain VC-backed blog plays even dicier than they already were.

Linux use continues to expand.  In India a Kerala state-wide policy will put linux in to all schools and IDC expects the Indian Linux market will grow at 21% annually for the next few years.  Don't bet against the penguin.

Those of you using your PC for music might be interested to hear of Mixx, a DJ mixer for Linux.  We had an excuse to test this software and found it to be quite fun and easy to use with cross-fader and playback speed controls.  Its another great example of Open Tech making the world happier!

For open tech users, the Mozilla suite is now called Sea Monkey.

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Holonics and LOHAS

Holonics * Health * Environment * Education * Living

Holonics

We read about a new Theory of Everything that is gaining ground.  String theory has consumed most of the talent and money in physics for a decade or so.  It is the dominant theory that attempts to integrate quantum mechanics and the theory of relativity.  Loop Quantum Gravity an alternative proposed in 1986 is gaining interest.  The difference is that string theory sees matter-energy pulsing in a fixed framework of space-time, whereas loop quantum gravity sees matter-energy pulsing in a changeable framework of space-time.  The similarity is that neither has been tested experimentally.  The growth of interest in loop quantum gravity is healthily diversifying application of resources in the world of physics.

BusinessWeek reports on a boom in remanufacturing.  Its attraction in wringing productivity from depreciated assets is well rewarded, though it requires more integral planning and design.  In fact, the description provided suggests open tech principles. And remanufacturing pays off. Robert T. Lund and William Hauser, two engineering professors at Boston University, recently surveyed more than 270 remanufacturers. They found that, on average, labor and overhead represented about 60% of the costs to produce remanufactured goods. That's nearly a complete inversion of the traditional cost breakdown between labor and materials. In most cases, according to managers that do it, the overall cost usually runs less than 70% of building a brand new product. At its core, remanufacturing is as much a service business as a product business. For the process to work, companies can't just forget about their products once they are shipped from the factory. Instead, they have to form a replacement relationship with customers.

Initial system and product design is critical. Most companies would not consider spending more up front to extend a product's life. But it can be a competitive advantage. As Paul Hawken, an author on sustainability issues, puts it: In reman, "you design for utility, which is how useful is this when it comes back, rather than how useful is it going out."  Environmental laws also may force companies' hands. The European Union has rules that put companies on the hook for the post-consumer waste their products cause. Most companies, though, aren't used to thinking that the things they expel -- waste, products, resources -- have value. But the growth in remanufacturing symbolises a long-term shift away from labor productivity toward resource productivity. Economics, not environmental concerns, is the driving force. "It's not like you're doing it because you're a nice guy or because you think the EU shouldn't have so much chronic unemployment. You do it because you just look at the numbers."

Health

A "virtually untreatable" form of TB has emerged, according to the World Health Organization. Climate change is exacerbating the spread of infectious diseases, according to new research.  Warming temperatures are causing organisms to migrate, Professor Paul Hunter told a conference in the UK. Hunter, head of health protection at the UK's University of East Anglia, presented research tracking the movement of disease-causing organisms in Europe and North America to the Festival of Science in the UK city of Norwich. In Europe, ocean swimmers have been infected with illnesses normally associated with warmer waters.  And Professor Hunter warned not enough was being done to monitor the spread of big killers such as malaria in Africa, due to the warming of the Earth.  "There are already significant indications of disease burden occurring in Europe as a result of climate change," he told the conference. One organism on the move is Vibrio vulnificus, which can cause severe illness, and in some cases death, in humans, the research found. It only grows in warm waters, such as those in the Gulf of Mexico, but has now been reported as far north as the Baltic Sea in Europe, and killed one person in Denmark. In Italy, 100 holidaymakers had been taken ill after coming into contact with an organism Ostreopsis ovata which had extended its habitat because of warmer waters. And Congo Crimea Haemorrhagic Fever, which causes bleeding from the skin, mouth and nose, has also began to appear in areas where it was previously unknown. The spread of such organisms is probably due to milder winters rather than warmer summers. But the burden of climate change will fall on the poorest countries in the world, and the tropical countries. In Africa there are potentially many millions of cases of malaria occurring as a result of climate change which might not have occurred earlier. The migration of ticks and midges also caused diseases like malaria to spread. The researchers also believe that infectious diseases borne by humans, such as TB and HIV, are likely to spread more widely as people migrate to escape drought and other effects of climate change.

At the same conference, the President of the British Association for the Advancement of Science, Frances Cairncross, told delegates it was time for the world to begin focusing on how to live with climate change, rather than solely on preventing it. She said the Kyoto Protocol was "ineffectual", in part because several big nations were not signed up to it. "We almost certainly can't stop climate change", she said.  "We probably can slow it down a bit and we should certainly try, but broadly, the main thing we are going to have to do is to adapt. The rich countries should help the poor countries to adapt - as well as helping them to introduce less energy-intensive technologies."

In the UK, Scientists from Liverpool and Glasgow Universities have recently completed a survey of 36 dairy farms (commissioned by the Organic Milk Suppliers Co-Operative) in which they found that organic milk contains on average 69% more omega-3 than conventional. The researchers believe the higher ALA levels were in part due to the organic cows’ higher clover diets. This latest study follows research recently carried out in Denmark which showed that organic milk contained higher levels of vitamin E, omega 3 and antioxidants.   Now 14 of the scientists who produced the report are calling on the FSA to acknowledge the nutritional superiority of organic milk. The FSA has said it will consider the new data “carefully and in the usual way”. For some “the usual way” will have an ominous ring to it, and you can’t help thinking that after careful consideration the Agency will decide that “more research is still needed”.  Previously the Agency has refused to recognise that organic and conventional foods are different nutritionally, however, news in August that the FSA will have an organic keynote at their gathering next year suggest a more cooperative relationship.  The FSA says it has still to be convinced that organic milk is intrinsically more nutritious than conventional milk but has agreed to look at the latest findings carefully.

In the US, focussed around California, the number of cases of a virulent strain of E. coli linked to fresh prepackaged spinach grew to at least 94 in 20 states.  Federal health authorities identified an organic produce company here in California as a possible source of some of the tainted spinach.  At least 14 of the sickened people were gravely ill  and one had died, a 77-year-old woman in Wisconsin.   A processor at the centre of the outbreak, Natural Selection Foods of San Juan Bautista, announced a voluntary nationwide recall of its Earthbound Farm brands of prepackaged spinach and salad mixes as well as prepackaged spinach it processes for numerous other companies, including Dole. Prepackaged spinach has been processed, washed and sanitized and placed in airtight bags or plastic trays. 

But the dilemma is "How do you get an animal disease from a vegetable?!"  Unfortunately, the detective trail ultimately leads back to a seemingly unrelated food industry - beef and dairy cattle.  E. coli is abundant in the digestive systems of healthy cattle and humans, and if your potato salad happened to be carrying the average E. coli, the acid in your gut is usually enough to kill it. The villain in this outbreak, E. coli O157:H7, is far scarier, at least for humans. Your stomach juices are not strong enough to kill this acid-loving bacterium, which is why it’s more likely than other members of the E. coli family to produce abdominal cramps, diarrhea, fever and, in rare cases, fatal kidney failure. Where does this particularly virulent strain come from? It’s not found in the intestinal tracts of cattle raised on their natural diet of grass, hay and other fibrous forage. In fact O157 thrives in a recent biological niche: the unnaturally acidic stomachs of beef and dairy cattle fed on grain, the typical ration on most industrial farms. It’s the infected manure from these grain-fed cattle that contaminates the groundwater and spreads the bacteria to produce, like spinach, growing on neighboring farms. In 2003, The Journal of Dairy Science noted that up to 80% of dairy cattle carry O157. (Fortunately, food safety measures prevent contaminated fecal matter from getting into most of our food most of the time.) Happily, the journal also provided a remedy based on a simple experiment. When cows were switched from a grain diet to hay for only five days, O157 declined 1,000-fold. This is good news. In a week, we could choke O157 from its favorite home even if beef cattle were switched to a forage diet just seven days before slaughter, it would greatly reduce cross-contamination by manure of, say, hamburger in meat-packing plants. Unfortunately, it would take more than a week to reduce the contamination of ground water, flood water and rivers, all irrigation sources on spinach farms, by the E-coli-infected manure from cattle farms. The United States Department of Agriculture does recognize the threat from these huge lagoons of waste, and so pays 75% of the cost for a confinement cattle farmer to make manure pits watertight, either by lining them with concrete or building them above ground. But taxpayers are financing a policy that only treats the symptom, not the disease, and at great expense. There remains only one long-term remedy, and it’s still the simplest one: stop feeding grain to cattle.

California’s spinach industry is now the financial victim of an outbreak it probably did not cause, and meanwhile, thousands of acres of other produce are still downstream from these lakes of E. coli-ridden cattle manure. So give the spinach growers a break, and direct your attention to the people in our agricultural community who just might be able to solve this deadly problem: the beef and dairy farmers.

Unfortunately the WHO has taken the drastic move of promoting DDT against malaria.  The disease kills more than a million people a year, 800,000 of them young children in Africa. Dr. Arata Kochi, who leads the group’s global malaria program, says expanding its use is essential to reviving the flagging international campaign to control the disease.  But there is a conflict of interest. Dr. Kochi has powerful allies on DDT and, more broadly, on using insecticide sprays, in Congress and the Bush administration - at the news conference, Timothy Ziemer, who leads Bush’s $1.2 billion malaria undertaking, stood at Dr. Kochi’s side. We can only assume there has been significant lobbying from vested interests in drug and chemical companies.  Chris White, malaria programme leader with the African Medical and Research Foundation, accuses the West of "(throwing) out opinions without really understanding the context or culture of Africa." For DDT to be effective against the disease, at least 80% of all households must be covered every 6-12 months, and this involves coordinated teams. White suggests that to even imagine any such "full-scale military exercise" in the Congo basin, for example, is ludicrous. Nets, on the other hand, last four to five years. "The new WHO statement is misleading and operationally unsound," heconcludes.

Every year the fast-food chains, soda companies and processed-food manufacturers spend billions marketing their products. You see their ads all the time. They tend to feature a lot of attractive, happy, skinny people having fun. But you rarely see what's most important about the food: where it comes from, how it's made and what it contains. Tyson ads don't show chickens crammed together at the company's factory farms, and Oscar Mayer ads don't reveal what really goes into those wieners. There's a good reason for this. Once you learn how our modern industrial food system has transformed what most Americans eat, you become highly motivated to eat something else.  This article, One Thing to Do About Food: A Forum, by leading food, health and sustainability advocates promoting better awareness of what we eat is worth reading.  And if the recent legal suit by California against leading car manufacturers (see Climate Change) is a guide, it may not be long before food companies are in the sites of litigators.

Environment

We have noted previously the uncounted benefit of environmental services which allow us to consume and pollute as we have liked, and how these services are being compromised by selfishness and ignorance. Ecological economist Mark Anielski presented discomforting data at Canada's 10th National Forest Congress indicating that boreal forest conservatively provide $ 250 billion of services.  If these ecosystem services were counted in Canada, they would amount to roughly 9% of GDP, more than the GDP contribution of Canada's huge mining sector, 4%, or its booming energy industry, at 5.6 %.  "The boreal is like a giant carbon bank account. The forests and peatlands store an estimated 67 billion tonnes of carbon in Canada alone -- almost eight times the amount of carbon produced worldwide in the year 2000". Storing carbon and absorbing carbon dioxide are just one of 16 ecological services the boreal provides.  "We couldn't calculate values for them all, such as providing food and habitat for bees that perform valuable services like pollination".  Other services like waste recycling and soil formation also went uncounted.   Most of the world's original wild forests have been logged or developed, and today, only about 20% remains, mainly in the boreal and Amazon region. Canada's portion of the boreal represents more than 1.3 billion acres -- over 25% of the remaining intact forest on the planet.  The globe-spanning boreal forest is the last great forest ecosystem -- larger even than the Amazon. The boreal is also the largest terrestrial storehouse of carbon, making it one of the world's best defenses against global climate change. Governments need to begin accounting for those services before allowing timber, oil and gas and mining to carve up the world's remaining northern forests.  Another rationale for expanding economic measures beyond "GDP" as discussed in Interest Rates.

Following the World Trade Organisation's public release of its ruling that the EU acted illegally in banning GM imports from 1999 to 2004, the US has urged the European Union to speed up its process for approving new genetically modified products.  The case was instigated by the US, Canada and Argentina who were critical of an EU moratorium on GM food crops.EU officials said the ruling had little impact because the moratorium had already been lifted.   Since the case was first brought to the WTO in 2003, the EU has given decisions on 10 GM product applications and is reviewing more than 30 others. The 1,000-page WTO ruling confirmed a preliminary verdict that was issued in February, and was released to the countries involved in the dispute in May.  

But you should note that the ruling did not address the issue of whether GM crops were safe or if they could be compared to naturally occurring products.  Most EU consumers take a precautionary approach to release of GMO because of the very high, undefined, risk of natural disaster.  Crops including corn or soybeans that have been genetically modified to resist insects or disease have been widely grown in the US for years, and now some land owners are seeing the consequences as cross-contamination has created transgenic weeds that prevent industrial farming techniques.  And the controls are loose - in August the EU introduced emergency measures to ban imports of US rice that had been contaminated with an unauthorised genetically modified variety. The GM variety was later found in packets of own-brand rice sold in the UK. "Risks should not be taken with public health for the convenience of companies or of government" and on the basis of the incomplete evidence currently available, "I wouldn't eat it myself" said Dr Doug Gurian-Sherman, a former biotech specialist at the US government's Environmental Protection Agency in connection with the GM rice.

On September 1 the UK FSA issued a statement stressing the American long-grain rice, which had become accidentally contaminated with “low levels” of GMOs and was being held at British ports, was “illegal”. The statement made it clear that food retailers had a responsibility to “ensure the food they sell does not contain unauthorised GM material”.  But the FSA assured the big supermarkets that it would not make them withdraw the rice. Friends of the Earth has already found GM material in two types of own-brand rice sold in Morrison supermarkets and believes the GM rice is to be widespread throughout Britain.  Shadow environment secretary, Peter Ainsworth, described the FSA’s conduct as “a massive scandal” and said it “smelt of a cover-up”. Ironically, as reported last month, the unauthorised rice, known as LLRICE601 and developed by Bayer CropScience , was never taken to market. However traces of it have turned up widely in other US rice, possibly because pollen from the GM rice spread to conventional crops during commercial trials. 

Following August's conincidental emphasis on water scarcity and water wars, you may be interested in papers from the IWA World Water Congress here.

India has depleted its groundwater at an alarming pace over the last few decades.  The country is running through its groundwater so fast that scarcity could threaten whole regions, drive people off the land and ultimately stunt the country’s ability to farm and feed its people. With the population growing past one billion and with a driving need to boost agricultural production, Indians are tapping their groundwater faster than nature can replenish it, so fast that they are hitting deposits formed at the time of the dinosaurs.  If groundwater can be thought of as a nation’s savings account for dry, desperate drought years, then India, which has more than its share of them, is rapidly exhausting its reserve. That situation is true in a growing number of states. Indian surveyors have divided the country into 5,723 geographic blocks. More than 1,000 are considered either overexploited, meaning more water is drawn on average than is replenished by rain, or critical, meaning they are dangerously close to it. Twenty years ago, according to the Central Groundwater Board, only 250 blocks fell into those categories.

Organic certification relies on inspection, but there is a better way.  Chas Griffin has recommended a programme of mentoring to the UK's Soil Association and we endorse it wholeheartedly.  It improves upon the current inspection system because it is kept "straight" by producers who are committed to organic principles, it encourages learning within the community as mentors help members learn from one another, and it would be cheaper enabling small-holders, the optimal production system, to obtain certification.

Education

Education starts in the womb.  While in the field of psychology the influence of mother's behaviour on the psychology of the child throughout its life is controversial, increasing evidence shows that the influence is profound - it influences the ways genes work.  Moshe Szyf of McGill University discussed his research at the meeting of Neural Developmental Disorders which shows that epigenetic imprinting could be a general mechanism whereby experiences are translated into behaviour.  This area of biology is increasingly important - it was only a couple of years ago (end 2004) that it was recognised that genetic encoding was a function not just of the parental chromosomes but also the RNA soup in which fertilisation occurs, and more.  Why mention this in Education?  Because education is about nurturing humans and that starts during planning, when the DNA pool is chosen, and is so critical in the time from conception to young adulthood.  And because natural education, which our research suggests is the appropriate goal, is based on experience - empathy in head, heart and hands.

A new book by Daniel Golden, The Price of Admission: How America's Ruling Class Buys Its Way into Elite Colleges - Who Gets Left Outside the Gates, paints a sad picture of widening inequality in education in the US, that matches the rise in economic inequality and challenges the culture of meritocracy for which America is rightly proud.  60% of places in elite universities are given to applicants with a hook like rich or alumni parents to sports.  Harvard admits 40% of legacy applicants, compared to 11% overall.  And the faculty all contrive in the game too.  While change is beginning it is needed much faster, not least of because American competitiveness is being eroded by such favouritism.

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