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March Round-up

• Perspective
• Geopolitics * Risk and terror
• Energy * Climate Change
• IT
• Integral systems and LOHAS
• Activities, Books and Gatherings
• For investment and trade notes see GRI Equity Roundup

Perspective

March blossoms from winter for the northern hemisphere temperate climates. The spring equinox focused attention on nascent growth which it is hoped will flourish in the months to come. In nature we can enjoy the warmth of spring without the manic activity of summer - weeds have not yet overpowered our efforts. Easter, this year contemporaneous with a solemn mood as the Pope's health wavers, also creates a mood of hope and optimism for plans set but not yet carried out. This mood almost seemed to be reflected around the world: the US administration attempts to become more conciliatory and cooperative in international politics, Israeli and Palestinians seem to be agreeing a way forward, Hong Kong and Taiwan are slowly shaking off their parental cocoons.

But the mood of optimism should be tempered by the growing list of priorities for global management. Our failure in rich economies to make progress to the Millennium Development Goals and the increasing concern over the failure to reduce poverty of most people in the world are signs of increasing economic and geopolitical tension which will loosen only with whole system change.

Relevant to our wake up call is the film The Corporation, briefly reviewed below, which should be required viewing for all managers as a fast primer on challenges facing large businesses today. It focuses on the US jurisdiction but has lessons for us all. I do not take issue with corporations per se - that is too emotive. But the disconnect between owners ( i.e. you and me with an investment portfolio, pension or other savings) and the management of business has become too extensive. We should not complain about the way things are if we do not take responsibility for our own behaviour, whether it is consumption or investment.

A paper from IMD on the need for integrity in managers offer the sobering advice that integrity is not necessarily important, because corporate culture does not value it! (Do you need integrity to be a successful leader?) While integrity and flexibility are reported to be the most important factors in successful managing, the paper recognises that not owning up to mistakes etc is likely to be undiscovered or ignored if certain objectives are met. It is of course this culture that leads to Enron risk and disasters.

People in America have thought much about life and death and the rights of people during March because of the legal debate over Terri Schiavo. It is in stark contrast to views expressed about death in Iraq. The end result of this bioethics dilemma was ironic - allow her to die, but by starvation! It is emotional and uncertain issues like this that demand our attention in order to remove tensions and liberate people's energy.

Global culture has not yet fully emerged to an enlightened dynamic.  Many executives from traditional businesses and organisations that we meet have sympathy with more responsible initiatives both at work and home, but they are reluctant to change first.  Often they say "a crisis is needed, then economic and social behaviour will adjust".  This is sensible.

However, it is rare for humanity to wake up until it is too late, perhaps the best example is the Second World War in which the USA was supplying finance and industry to Germany into 1942 despite many innocent deaths in the years before.  The perspective of the Asian Crisis (not the tsunami but the economic debacle of 1996 till after 2000) offers a frightening lesson.  It was not until currency devaluation of 50% took place that government and business in Thailand began to contemplate reforming practices which were unethical, collusive and inefficient.  In fact it is only recently that people feel real changes have started to be implemented and many unsavoury practices have rejuvenated.  What if this is the sort of shock that is needed to wake us up?  Can you imagine the pain of a one time shock of a depreciation of your currency so that it can only buy half what it does today?  It is unthinkable. We must change our behaviour, habits and consumption, individually, today if humanity is to succeed, even survive.

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Geopolitics

Tung Chee Hwa finally stepped down from the role of Hong Kong's Chief Executive.  His retirement three years early was obscurely managed.  This in itself does not bode well for Hong Kong's executive nor for the tensions in Taiwan and other disputed territories.  The implications of the resignation of Tung for the China/Taiwan issue are obscure because the resignation has revealed so little information.  China is keeping its cards close to its chest. 

But China is certainly not going to play meek.  With the example of the US invasion of Iraq and US displays of power and rhetoric in the Middle East, Iran, even Europe, China will present a firm position.  Soon after the official announcement of Tung's resignation, China passed a new law approving the use of military force if Taiwan declares independence.  This is the most worrying development, though it will be accompanied by a gradual tightening of economic and social relations as Taiwan increasingly demonstrates its tendency for independence and democracy.

The Middle East seems to be making progress towards a more enlightened politics, though this would be a departure from the track record. Syria said it will withdraw from Lebanon, and local and international pressure to do so is high. Israeli and Palestinian leaders seemed to agree a step forward, involving releasing suspects and more self-governance, which has been initiated. No great changes there yet, but momentum appears to be building on top of the increasing freedoms enjoyed by Iraqis.

The Chechnya war continues and stakes were raised as leader Aslan Maskhadov killed. This action is now being considered genocide by some observers and the statistics and graphics seem to support that view. The desire for Russia to control an oil pipeline being constructed through Chechnya, in particular the revenues associated with it, is the principal motivation. The war is another issue of concern for investors and businesses in Russia, reflecting an increasingly imperialist policy.

The World Bank's new President Paul Wolfowitz is a much debated appointee because of his role in supporting the Iraq war. A healthy discussion may be seen on http://www.worldbankpresident.org/.

Greenspan's comments on globalisation and financial imbalances in March bear attention. He does not make casual comment so the problem of the US trade deficit now has a significant authority drawing attention to it. Planning for a worst case scenario now would therefore be a valuable risk management exercise.

The US continues to disappoint in the area of civil liberties. The restructuring of intelligence services is important though the raft of legislation allowing un-monitored government investigation has set the record back decades. But we came across an insidious example of the fear of people: Verizon a major internet service provider was found to be blocking non-US emails! This is a society where guns are so liberally available that another school massacre took place during March. It is hoped that the original values of the founding fathers will be rejuvenated and an openness in society will be reborn (without the guns), but the ability to repeal aspects of legislation like the Patriot Act will be contentious and difficult.

An entertaining and useful portal on globalisation is delivered through the PBS website.  Sponsored by major corporates it may have some bias, though its utility is data delivery.

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Risk and Terror

The high school massacre in the US is tragic and demonstrates a cultural psychopathy. It was reflected in the US's dismissive response to the wounding of an Italian journalist and the death of an Italian special agent killed by US soldiers.  Nicola Calipari, who negotiated Giuliana Sgrena's release, died as he shielded Ms Sgrena from shots. There was an investigation, but Italians are grossly unhappy and blame is unlikely to attach. If there was a sense of cooperation among the parties involved it is unlikely that the error would have occurred and, if it did, that excuses would be accepted, but rancour has been fueled instead.

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Energy

Oil was flirting with $ 60 a barrel.  Pressure may ease as spring reduces heating demand, but high prices are becoming expected and alternatives to fossil fuels sought.  The high prices are also benefiting small operators, like Tullow Oil, whose marginal exploration endeavours now have significantly higher payouts.

Pumping Poverty: Britain's Department for International Development and the oil industry a new report produced by Plan B to coincide with the EDM has been endorsed by nineteen other organisation. It investigates the role of British overseas development aid in facilitating oil development and finds that - far from helping the world's poorest people - such aid often serves its wealthiest corporations, leaving the poor worse off than before and aggravating global climate change. Pumping Poverty can be viewed online on: www.planb.org or www.carbonweb.org

Beyond Oil - the oil curse and solutions for an oil-free future a 32-page A5 booklet brings together background info on oil and conflict, repressive regimes, development, oil industry workers, and climate change. Together with information on the revolving doors and mutual support between the oil industry, government and the International Financial Institutions which fund new oil projects, it lays out the UK's involvement in the oil curse, and the action you can take to challenge it. See it at Plan B or download it here.

The U.S. Senate paved the way to allow oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). The U.S. Senate voted against an amendment to strip ANWR instructions from the Senate Budget Resolution. While Bush administration officials hailed the vote, Democrats lashed out at Republicans for getting the vote in through the back door - attaching it to the budget resolution, where fewer votes are needed. NGO's, who have been working feverishly to bring the few swing votes needed in their favor, said this is only the beginning of the fight - there is a long way to go before the Refuge is opened for oil drilling.

A recent study by Argonne National Laboratory found that ethanol generates 35% more energy than it takes to produce, reinforcing the fact that production of the corn-based fuel yields a net energy gain. The findings of the Argonne study support earlier research conducted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Michigan State University, the Colorado School of Mines, the Institute for Local Self-Reliance and other public and private entities that determined ethanol has a positive net energy balance. A USDA study released in 2004 found that ethanol may actually net as much as 67% more energy than it takes to produce. The U.S. Department of Energy's Office (DOE) of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy said the Argonne study, conducted by Michael Wang, should help quell debate about the net energy balance of ethanol.

A summary of a report on clean energy options is available here.

Climate Change

Another quake in Indonesia was felt during March, but did not have the same intensity or devastation of the December one. It is unlikely that these are caused by climate change, though they are a violent reminder of nature's volatility.

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IT

Another step in the march to open systems occurred in March as SCO's patent infringement suit against IBM in relation to Linux faltered. SCO is also facing economic difficulties which make the litigation less important.

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Integral Systems and LOHAS

The end of March saw the spring equinox and the attendant celebration of Easter which presented some interesting observations: Less than half of UK adults know why Easter is celebrated (it is a Christian tradition to memorialise the crucifixion of Jesus and his life's work); more people celebrate Easter in China or Africa than either Europe or North America. It is numbers like these which demonstrate the evolution of culture. In developed markets individuals are addressing religion and spirituality more critically, which often results in initial rejection followed by an enlightened search for a spiritual compass. In emerging economies, the structure of institutional religion provides an anchor of hope that poverty will be escaped and goodness is possible despite tough economic conditions.

Vicki Hird of Sustain UK highlights the issue of unsustainable food distribution in a recent report.  The energy consumed in transporting organic food from growers in Africa and South America to supermarkets in Europe and North America is more detrimental than the benefits derived from their sustainable growing.  Of course, these foods are still better than imported non-organic foods, but consumers need to bring fair trade home and buy locally produced foods.

As many as 60 percent of life-supporting ecosystems are being degraded, according to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment carried out by 1,300 scientists in 95 countries which warns that this degradation could get significantly worse over the next 50 years. The ecosystems most under threat are fresh water, fisheries, air and water regulation, and the regulation of regional climate, natural hazards and pests, the report says. Following are some of its key findings:

• - Two services - capture fisheries and fresh water - are now well beyond levels that can sustain current, much less future, demands.

• - The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased by almost a third since 1750, and 60 percent of that increase has happened since 1959;

• - More land has been converted to cropland since 1945 than during the whole of the 18th and 19th centuries combined;

• - One quarter of the world's coral reefs and about 35 percent of the mangroves, in countries surveyed, were destroyed or badly degraded in the last decades of the 20th century;

• - More than half of all the synthetic nitrogen fertiliser ever used has been used since 1985, causing water pollution problems around the world;

• - Levels of poverty remain high and inequalities are growing - over one billion people survive on less than a dollar a day, 856 million are undernourished and between 1 and 2 billion are affected by water scarcity;

• - The degradation of ecosystems is harming many of the world's poorest people and is sometimes the principal factor causing poverty - 1.8 million people die annually due to inadequate hygiene, sanitation or water supply;

• - The Millennium Development Goal to halve poverty and hunger between 1990 and 2015 will not be achieved and hunger and child malnutrition will remain problems even in 2050;

• - Wealthy countries cannot insulate themselves from ecosystem degradation.

For a summary go here and for a user-friendly web presentation of the report go here.

Bowling For Columbine again?  An unhappy student killed nine and wounded 12 at a high school in north central USA.  This is tragic but unlikely to galvanise people to positive action such as controlling the spread of guns, promoting constructive values and providing interesting activities and opportunities for young people.

The UN voted to declare opposition to human embryo cloning research and experiment in light of high unknown risks and because of opposition from Catholic states.

But the big news in the story of Life and Death is that a US judge ordered that the feeding tube be removed from Terri Schiavo, a brain-damaged woman despite last-minute efforts by Congress to stop it. Mrs Schiavo's parents wanted to keep her alive, while her husband Michael, who is her legal guardian, did not. It took nearly two weeks for Schiavo to die once the feeding tubes had been removed.  It is ironic that quick painless euthanasia was not preferable after all the debate about pain and suffering.

National Geographic March issue had interesting coverage of the human brain and mind.  One interesting fact for parents is that a foetus' brain start restructuring in the second trimester, in other words it matters what stimulation the foetus receives prior to birth.  The use of new understanding of the mind allows us to manage our own mental development, temperament and, importantly, life decisions.  The mind is particularly interesting because it is the location of the link between physical and metaphysical existence.

According to Robert Hooijberg of IMD, integrity is not essential for leaders! This appears to be because companies do not value it. Nevertheless it is important for success. You can see his paper here.

The US's emergence to social equality took some more bumpy steps forward as San Francisco allowed same gender marriages and 11 states moved to make them illegal.

It appears that bird flu may be migrating again from Asia to Europe as Ireland and UK start to get nervous about another outbreak. While it is not likely to become pandemic, the spectre of new disease created by industrial systems continues to rise.

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Activities, Books and Gatherings

Astraea is launching a retreat for personal and business transformation: Nurturing Natural Performance. You can download a pdf flyer here or call + 353 59 9155037 for more information. The guides leading the retreat offer over 150 years of life experience including global CEO, healer, publisher, therapist, investor, author, yoga trainer, parent, entrepreneur, gardener and more. The retreat offers the opportunity to significantly enhance your capacity in less than a week and is well suited to executives and managers in business, government, or international development. It is invaluable to those embarking upon career or lifestyle changes.

Pam was published in March. Yoga Therapy Ireland featured a two page spread on yoga in Carlow by Pam. It has received compliments from the yoga community - congratulations! You can read the draft here.

A range of books were screened or read. Our complete selection to date is online here, though it is worth noting a few here. At the suggestion of a best selling author and friend, we read Gurdieff. Gurdieff was an unusual character who attempted to link eastern spirituality with western culture in the early 20th century. While his work was hindered by the nascent understanding of atomic physics at that time, his critical thinking and experiential approach was ahead of its time and the school of thought deserves some attention in the study of the practical connection between body and spirit. The occult references can be a bit off-putting but are necessary for want of a non-partisan language.

Emergence by Barbara Marx Hubbard is a valuable exposition of the opportunity to open humanity to spiritual development while we have the opportunity to rescue earth from pollution. A passionate author this is becoming required reading for mangers building sustainable systems.

The Corporation - a documentary on corporate power is required viewing for all managers in large corporations. The two hours required to watch this film will prepare managers for responding to public debate on corporate failures of ethics and motivate solutions. It is unfortunate, however, that the focus is on US and US companies which have plainly escaped the law of the state as well as social morality. The authors do not point out that the form of organisation itself is not to blame - because of course there are good corporations and bad partnerships, individuals etc - but the people behind them, including consumers and shareholders who can change behaviour. This movie is a wake-up call for capitalists who think everything is OK.

The most enlightening and best value gathering on new thinking is coming up at the beginning of May. Book your place at BeTheChange while you can.

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