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January 2005

• Perspective
• Geopolitics * Risk and terror
• Energy * Climate Change
• IT
• Integral systems and LOHAS
• Activities, Books and Gatherings
• For investment and trade notes see GRI Equity Roundup

Perspective

The Coming Wave

Our principal commitment to walking the talk is hands on horticulture and conservation at Ballin Temple. In the last week of January as I was harvesting leeks an uncomfortable thought made itself known: we really do not care to invest in our health and well-being, but will spend on convenience. Most of us will pay a premium of 30% or more at the local store or for a packaged meal, irrespective of the industrial quality of the food, but balk at similar premiums for naturally produced fare. At BT we are lucky - those leeks are real food, delicious and not easily acquired by most people. But most of us are blind-sided into convenience and Super-Size diets. Commenting as a trade insider, even at the fancy restaurants often enough you will have processed and treated ingredients - taste the MSG!

As associates have pointed out "things are changing, people increasingly want to get real food and availability is increasing". But the realist in me doubts the intent of role models ."Its too difficult, complicated or costly" is often the refrain from people who make million dollar decisions and are paid many multiples of what the gardener earns. And when I see the expenditure on the Asian quake ($ 650 million) compared with the Iraq War ($ 250 billion), this perception of carelessness is reinforced. But we are lucky. Family and friends here are blessed to be able to enjoy the gifts of life. This has encouraged me to share our connections with nature. Therefore in 2005 I will help a group of seasoned personal coaches to deliver enlightening experiential retreats at Ballin Temple. I hope you too find time to breath fresh air, taste clean food and water and experience the fulfillment of being alive.

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Geopolitics

The interim report on the Millennium Development Goals (pdf 1.4 MB) was released in mid-January saying that we are behind schedule and have much to do to catch up. Written by Jeffrey Sachs, the report calls for much higher spending on development. The MDG report says developed nations could do much more to prevent poverty, hunger and disease around the world and urges a vast increase in development aid to the world's poorest countries. Correspondents say targets to halve poverty by 2015 are way off track. Disease, war and incompetence combined with a lack of will in the developed world have already made the MDG virtually meaningless. Trade rules need to be changed and infrastructure developed in poorer countries to allow them to compete. Financing of workable poverty-reduction schemes is required. 

On a positive note, the UK has signed a debt relief deal with Tanzania and plans to make similar offers to 70 poorer nations around the world. Under the plan - which could cost the UK £1bn - countries must spend the cash saved on health, education and welfare. The offer is made unilaterally but the UK is asking other countries to join them.

The World Economic Forum in Davos, after years of expounding the benefits of the global economy and trade, stood at a crossroads after its business-dominated members cast aside those two issues to focus on poverty and equitable globalisation instead! The took the unusual opportunity to vote at a four-hour "town hall" assembly of the elite on the top six issues that global leaders, and the forum, should tackle most urgently. 64 percent of a core group of 750 participants opted for poverty, next on the list of issues was "equitable globalisation" (55 percent), followed by climate change (51 percent). Education, conflict in the Middle East and global governance -- the efficient, democratic and corruption-free functioning of governments and international institutions -- were the next three. Although the global economy and trade were included by the Forum's organisers in the original shortlist of 12 issues, the clusters of executives politicians, academics and cultural figures sidelined them.

The World Social Forum, the contemporaneous gathering with a greater focus on emerging economies, took place in Brazil.

The real effect of the Asian quake and tsunami are now being felt. Tourism in the affected countries has evaporated - although it has been a principal source of income for a large part of these populations. Fisheries in many countries have also been devastated where some countries have lost about three-quarters of their fishing boats. Trade and tourism are needed to rebuild these countries. The outpouring of aid has been impressive - in Ireland over 20 million Euros was given by private donors, more that the government and a massive amount on a per capita basis. Unfortunately crime and graft are to be seen on the ground and the infrastructure to help is not functioning.

Soaring oil sales and a budget surplus mean Russian debt is no longer a risky investment, according to Standard & Poor's which has classed Russian bonds as "investment grade", up from their former "speculative" rating. Russia is now a net creditor rather than a debtor. Gold and foreign currency reserves of $ 119 billion back its foreign public debt of some $ 113 billion. Russia's reputation among investors has been hurt in recent months by asset seizures such as that imposed on Yukos. S&P said the solidity of government finances outweigh the risk, and this appears to be fair. However, private investment risk remains high and the culture of corruption is encouraged by the controls being implemented by Putin.

In mid-January hundreds of heavily armed Venezuelan troops invaded one of the country's largest and most productive cattle ranches, launching what Chavez describes as his "war against the estates." This approach has never worked, neither in Zimbabwe recently or , closer to home, Ireland from 1870 - 1950. Chavez has signed a decree under which authorities are expected to seize scores of other farms. This assault on private property is merely the latest step in what has been a rapidly escalating "revolution" by Venezuela's president that is undermining the foundations of democracy and free enterprise in that oil-producing country. The response from the international community, including Venezuela's democratic neighbors and the US, ranges from passiveness to tacit encouragement.

America inaugurated Bush again. The second term will not be easy despite a positive sentiment today. The roadmap for peace in Iraq will be pursued, expensively. An intended reform of social security will be attempted as a reaction to the recognition that the system is virtually bankrupt. Privatising social security will merely remove the perception of blame from the administration and put the burden of support for older generations on the less economically affluent in America. The rich will continue to be comfortable. The problem will remain.

China has ordered a halt to construction work on 26 big power stations, including two at the Three Gorges Dam, on environmental grounds. The move is a surprising one because China has high and growing demand for energy for its booming economy. The State Environmental Protection Agency said the 26 projects had failed to do proper environmental assessments. Some of the projects may be allowed to start work again with the proper permits, but others will be cancelled. Included on the agency's list were two power stations being built at the $ 22 billion Three Gorges Dam project on the central Yangtze. The stoppages would appear to be another step in the central government's battle to control projects licensed by local officials. Previous crackdowns have tended to focus on projects where there was overcapacity rather than environmental grounds. The government has encouraged construction of new electricity generating capacity to solve chronic energy shortages which forced many factories onto part-time working last year. In 2004, China increased its generating capacity by 12.6%, or 440,700 megawatts (MW).

Zhao Ziyang died at 85. He had long suffered from multiple diseases affecting his respiratory and cardiovascular systems, and had been hospitalised for medical treatment several times. China almost never commented on Zhao, who had been expected to succeed Deng Xiaoping as the country's paramount leader, until Zhao was removed from office at the height of the Tiananmen protests.

Mahmoud Abbas won the Palestinian election.

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Risk and Terror

The US administration asked Congress for an additional $ 80 billion for military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. This request pushes the total provided for operations against terrorism to more than $280 billion since 11 September 2001. Congress has already approved $ 25 billion in emergency funds for this fiscal year. In previous years, $ 120 billion has been made available for Iraq and $ 60 billion for Afghanistan. The reports came as the US army said it was planning to keep at least 120,000 troops in Iraq for the next two years, as part of a force of 150,000. This massive expenditure is a significant part of the US deficit running at close to $ 500 billion a year. It makes the $ 650 million for aid to the Asian nations hit by the tsunami insignificant. Anyone who sends their children to school, rather than military camp, will know where the billions should be spent if peace and democracy are sought.

Alberto Gonzales was nominated to be Attorney General.  He has used word play to redefine torture as acceptable.  And it has been accepted by America.  This is not only regressive and disgusting, it also jeopardises troops who will no doubt face similar treatment from their captors simply for revenge.  What is going on?

In its 527-page annual report covering the developments in human rights in more than 60 countries in the past year, Human Rights Watch says that when a country as dominant as the US openly defies the law, it invites others to do the same. It recommends that an independent US commission should look into prisoner abuse at Iraq's US-run Abu Ghraib jail. The report also calls for more military protection in Sudan's Darfur region. According to the New-York based group, abuses committed by the US have significantly weakened the world's ability to protect human rights. "The US government is less and less able to push for justice abroad, because it's unwilling to see justice done at home," said Kenneth Roth, executive director of HRW. The administration has failed to take responsibility for the treatment of prisoners. HRW also highlights the coercive interrogation techniques used on prisoners at Guantanamo and Abu Gharib jail. (Guantanamo 'torture letter' * Abu Gharib inmates remember ). Link TV, a new cable service promoted by Harry Belafonte, is running face-to-face interviews with Americans around the country expressing their grief and sorrow to Iraqis in particular. Some are in tears or simply speechless. "A practice that was once a clear and abhorrent violation of the law has become in effect the law of the land", as Mark Danner says.

HRW also accuses the world of showing "callous disregard" for the 70,000 people killed and up to two million made homeless in the Darfur conflict. "Darfur is making a mockery of our vows of 'never again'," said Mr Roth. HRW singles out China and Russia - UN Security Council veto members - for being more concerned about protecting oil contracts and arms sales to Khartoum than saving lives. The report says a large UN-authorised military force is needed to protect citizens, and criticises Western powers for handing the situation to the relatively inexperienced African Union. It also calls for an international criminal court to ensure crimes committed in Darfur do not go unpunished. It found that human rights conditions remained grave in Iraq and Israel, and had deteriorated in Iran, with little sign of improvement in the rest of the Middle East.

Fahrenheit 9/11 won the US public vote for best movie. Nominees for the People's Choice Awards were picked by a 6,000-strong Entertainment Weekly magazine panel, and winners were subsequently chosen by 21 million online voters. Director Michael Moore dedicated his trophy to soldiers in Iraq. Fahrenheit 9/11 is the first documentary to top $100m (£53.3m) at the worldwide box office, according to Screen International.

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Energy

The price of oil is not going to decline to levels seen a couple of years ago. Oil producers, processors and distributors are having profit bonanzas - all oil majors are reporting massive profits this year. There is no reason for them to change, yet. Alternative energy sources are increasingly viable and their adoption is attractive. The increase of oil prices has changed the market place though many have not seen it yet. The cost per kg of gasoline/petrol is $ 1.50 while even hydrogen is only $ 2.00 - 2.50 per kg - a differential far lower than the difference in the price of oil between 2003 and today. The saying "a rising tide lifts all boats" is applicable, albeit ironically literal in this instance.

Climate Change

Many people will have felt the violence of nature as storms swept many parts of the world, and will have noticed unusual weather - heat, cold or wet - which may be increased climate volatility.

The world may have little more than a decade to avert catastrophic climate change, politicians and scientists say. A report by the International Climate Change Taskforce says it is vital that global temperatures do not rise by more than 2oC above pre-industrial levels. Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels that would trigger this rise could possibly be reached in about 10 years or so. The report says limiting temperature rise to 2oC is likely to mean making sure atmospheric CO2 concentrations do not rise above about 400 parts per million (ppm). They have already reached about 380 ppm, and have been rising recently at more than 2 ppm annually, meaning the taskforce's threshold could be crossed by about 2015.

A recent conference on climate change hosted by the UK Meteorological Office has made presentations available here.

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IT

If you like Google and you have security issues or sensitive information, this item is important. Through our network we were introduced to Google-Watch. The web of cross holdings and reasons why using the Google search engine jeopardises security are discussed in detail on the site. In summary, they use an "immortal cookie" that does not expire till 2038, they record all searches, they retain all information indefinitely without a privacy policy and their cache appears to be illegal. They also hire former espionage professionals, their toolbar updates automatically without permission thus giving access to your hard drive. None of these are issues with Yahoo or other engines. As you might imagine we've changed our default search engine. An alternative is to use Scroogle which removes the sensitive private information when you search. Yahoo seems to be at least as productive and the company is run in a more open way. It was a great shame to discover the insidious ways of Google because it has raised the whole standard of search engines, but it has obviously betrayed the trust users placed in it. (We've had a similar experience with MS which we loved when they implemented a windows GUI for PCs in 1984, but has since the early 1990s overreached itself.)

Open technology is rapidly gaining ground. IBM pledged to make 500 patents available to open-source software projects in a commitment to de-monopolise the desktop software market. Linux growth is particularly significant and leading businesses are committing resources to integrating the management methodology into their businesses for the improvements in morale, efficiency and productivity that are evident. BusinessWeek presented useful coverage in January highlighting its attractiveness for modular industrial applications such as vehicles, robotics and supercomputers as well as the business management technology - "cooperating gets you further along than screwing your neighbour". This sentiment is also reflected in human behavioural studies by Kurban and Houser that consistently demonstrate humans' predilection for reciprocity over dominance or submission.

Microsoft suddenly dropped a long-running legal battle with the EU, but without admitting defeat after years of fighting. It will instead bow to demands from Brussels that it offer to unbundle some of its software, like the Media Player package that currently comes pre-installed with all versions of Windows. For the first time, European consumers will have the choice of whether they want Media Player supplied in new PCs or not, a move that's more significant for the precedent it sets than any immediate change it will create in the software market.

LinkedIn.com is a contact network service that can be useful for controlling internet based networking while improving access and screening. One of our associates has included us in their expanding network and at first blush it appears quick, secure and professional. Others are available.

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Integral Systems and LOHAS

America's approved bank of human embryonic stem cells is contaminated and possibly dangerous. The discovery marks a major setback for the United States and its efforts to dominate what many see as the next revolution in medical technology. The key lines, from which American researchers are attempting to derive nerve, islet and other types of stem cells to repair a damaged body, have been contaminated with a non-human molecule that makes them unsafe to use in treating patients. The fear is that contaminated cells are likely to trigger a fatal rejection in patients. All traditional culture-dish methods used to grow human embryonic stem cells rely on animal-derived materials, notably foetal calf serum and "feeder cells" from mice. This material appears to be the source of the contamination. Experiments showed that contaminated human embryonic stem cells became, effectively, like animal cells and were attacked by human antibodies, thus rendering them useless as a potential therapeutic tool in humans. Regulations in the US which only allow federal funding to be given to research on embryonic stem cell lines created before 2001 means a change in the law is required. Patrick Cusworth, a spokesman for the pro-life charity Life, said: "If anything, this latest report has demonstrated the sheer unpredictability of embryonic stem cells, and the enormous potential hazards if these were implanted into human patients."

Farmers in India use Coca-Cola as a pesticide for cotton and chili rather than offerings from Monsanto, Dow etc because its effective and much cheaper!  (Stop drinking Coke!) .

"We're losing 33 percent of our crops to pests before harvest, despite the fact that we are putting about 1 billion pounds of pesticides into the U.S. environment every year. That percentage is exactly the same as what was being lost in 1942 [before large-scale use of pesticides]. Thus, the pesticide technology has failed. And the same actors that brought us the failed chemical-pesticide revolution are now bringing us what is going to be the failed biotechnology revolution." Miguel Altieri.

Michael Newdow tried and failed to remove reference to God in the US President inaugural ceremony (which mentioned "freedom" 27 times, "liberty" 15 but not "war"). Newdow said the inclusion of prayer made him feel like a "second class citizen" because of his belief. Judge John Bates of Washington, DC ruled that Mr Newdow failed to show that he suffered serious injury because of the prayer's inclusion. He ruled that last-minute changes to the itinerary for the inauguration would cause "considerable disruption" to a heavily-planned national event. Last year Mr Newdow failed to have the words "one nation, under God" removed from the Pledge of Allegiance recited in school assemblies across the US. Two years ago Mr Newdow, who is qualified both as a doctor and a lawyer, won a ruling from a San Francisco court that the mention of God in US public schools violated the constitutionally-enshrined separation of church and state. But the ruling was later overturned by the US Supreme Court when it determined that Mr Newdow did not have legal custody of his daughter when he filed a suit on her behalf.

Half the world's people now live in cities. City residents, 1980: 1.7 billion; city residents, 2005: 3.0 billion. In 1800, the world had about 1 billion men, women, and children. About 3 percent, or 30 million of them, lived in cities and towns (defined as places of 5,000 people or more). A few hundred thousand pastoral nomads and hunter-gatherers continued to roam around wilderness areas, while the vast majority of people lived in farms and villages. To a modern eye, even the cities of the past would resemble small towns: classical Athens, like Biblical Nineveh and Babylon, seems to have had 30,000 to 50,000 residents. Imperial Rome had 250,000 or so; Lady Murasaki's Heian-kyo 50,000 to 100,000; Saladin's Cairo may have topped 200,000; the Tang Dynasty's Chang- an, optimistically, 500,000.* Revolutionary Boston counted 20,000 residents, and the Atlanta burnt by General Sherman in 1864: 10,000.

(* Some sources say "two million" for Chang-an. Chang-an's city wall enclosed about 84 square kilometers of land, while modern Beijing's 10 million residents live on 17,000 square km. Half a million could work if most of Chang-an's people lived outside the walls. Two million is hard to accept.)

A simple count of big cities shows how much the world has changed. In 1955, 103 cities had populations of more than a million people, with New York and Tokyo the only two over 10 million. Now 20 cities have topped 10 million, and 428 are above one million. Since 1980, for example, Bogota has grown from 3.7 to 7.6 million people. Port-au-Prince is likewise up from 700,000 to 2.1 million; New Delhi from five to 15 million; Lagos from 2.6 to 11.1 million; Kabul from one to three million; Bandung from 1.8 to four million; Sana'a from 240,000 to 1.6 million; and Bamako from 500,000 to 1.7 million. At the very top are Tokyo with a metro population of 35 million; then Mexico City, Mumbai, Sao Paulo, and New York City.

In total, three billion of the world's 6.2 billion people live in cities. This is up from only 1.7 billion in 1980, and forecast to hit five billion by 2030. Rural populations, meanwhile, have peaked and are supposed to begin falling around 2010. A list of the world's 100 biggest cities: http://www.worldatlas.com/citypops.htm. The United Nation's population division's report on urbanization (335 pages). More research from the Population Research Bureau.

The human development indicators interactive map located on the Social Watch website is really worth a visit.

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