{"id":3006,"date":"2017-01-20T13:50:50","date_gmt":"2017-01-20T13:50:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/astraea.net\/blog\/?p=3006"},"modified":"2017-01-21T10:40:07","modified_gmt":"2017-01-21T10:40:07","slug":"where-the-world-is-going","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.astraea.net\/blog\/where-the-world-is-going\/","title":{"rendered":"Where the world is going, today."},"content":{"rendered":"

If you are an expert in your field you have a good idea of what is going on in that area.\u00a0 That’s how you make a living.\u00a0 Most of us express views about news and events that are outside our area of expertise especially if we think that they might effect us in some way, like politics and economics.\u00a0 The Presidency of the United States of America is one of those things.<\/p>\n

Everyone will be talking about the new US administration in America today.\u00a0 Some will be earnest, some dismissive, some joyful, some sad or angry.\u00a0 Irrespective of your emotions or political leanings, its impact will affect you. <\/p>\n

While there is uncertainty about the intentions of the new administration, there is a serious question of competence.\u00a0 Few of the appointees have laudable track records of public service or even expertise in the areas for which they are responsible.\u00a0 That has been made clear in the media to such an extent that what has been an amusing diversion – the rise of Trump –\u00a0 has become a sad, frightening reality of bigotry, incompetence, greed and fear-mongering.\u00a0 The track record and rhetoric of those coming to power reveals the values that underpin their behaviour.\u00a0 Those values suggest a regressive intent in numerous areas from education to energy to finance to environment to regulation to international cooperation.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>So what of those values?\u00a0 They appear to be centred at the more primitive end of the spectrum of behaviours exhibited by higher life forms.\u00a0 One little word seems to encapsulate the culture: ego.<\/p>\n

The natural trend to higher values, which are displayed by sophisticated, mature systems, is being set back by political dynamics which remain feudal and, in America at least, potentially incompetent too.\u00a0 Feudal empires of the past rose because they were well administered, whether that be Rome, Mongol, or British, and they failed when the resources to maintain the pyramid of power waned. That is happening to America as oil resources become more difficult to obtain.<\/p>\n

Power structures also descend in to chaos when control mechanisms (read bureaucracy and administration) become corrupted, which is occurring rapidly in America now.\u00a0\u00a0 It is ego that underpins a feudal dynamic.\u00a0 Even with great wealth and privilege, as America and Americans possess, people can feel cheated when their expectations are not met.\u00a0 When advertising and media raise one’s expectations to the realm of fantasy, while one’s appreciation of what you have is ignored, the instinctive reaction is to want more.\u00a0 That is what many voters in the UK and the US wanted when they voted for Brexit and Trump respectively.\u00a0 They voted for change, simply change.\u00a0 They want system change, but chose not to look beyond the election to what kind of change might come.\u00a0 They were attracted by the rhetoric and fanfare and felt affinity with those fanning the flames of discontent.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>In America voters have demanded attention to their needs by voting for system change.\u00a0 But the system will not change without people taking responsibility for the consequences of their own rhetoric and behaviour.\u00a0 The new administration is filled with wealthy, elitist, oligarchical, but technically weak, appointees.<\/p>\n

This regression to feudalism is also seen emerging around the world as economic power continues to be concentrated in the hands of fewer, larger organisations and resource rich states, which influence laws and peddle favours to accrue assets.<\/p>\n

The principal resource that is fought over remains oil.\u00a0 It fuels the emerging affluence in Central Asia, the fighting in the Middle East, the brinkmanship between Russia and the US.\u00a0 China leans on the table of power as it sells cheap labour and offers increasing consumer demand to the world, while trading favours to get access to oil and mineral wealth.\u00a0 Technology and weapons are used by the US, Europe, Russia and China to elicit favours and access to resources in Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia.\u00a0 These dynamics of global economic and political power will continue to be wielded by elites around the world.\u00a0 The US administration is likely to behave in a more mercantile, self-serving way with less interest in global common goods and common welfare because it does not serve the newly appointed representatives.<\/p>\n

It seems ironic that we all want the same things, like food, home, friends, entertainment, creativity, peace, and we don’t want others to suffer, yet the global order retains a primitive dynamic.\u00a0 Increasingly people want system change, but have not faced the reality that they must change too.<\/p>\n

The alternative to a pyramid of power controlled from the top, is a democratic economy of enlightened (educated) people.\u00a0 That option is barely available.\u00a0 Popular enlightenment of political and economic systems remains only at the edge of institutional systems, where people collaborate to initiate change in the way humanity treats one another, treats the environment and manages global resources.\u00a0 The initiatives of change largely come from social entrepreneurs and philanthropists who invest in salvation for the destitute at home or abroad, in education, in low impact living and clean technologies.\u00a0 We can dream.<\/p>\n

So, quickly, what trends can be expected with our new administration in America?<\/p>\n

Energy is the driver of human life both at a personal level and a system level.\u00a0 Fossil fuels, especially oil, have been the cause of geopolitical tension for two centuries, allowing the continued expansion of feudal power so that a few global elite own the system.\u00a0 Oil has also allowed the technological and social development of humanity to ignore the laws of nature.\u00a0 The planet is suffering and this impacts human well being in fundamental ways, like access to clean food, water and air, not to mention a stable climate and the pleasures of natural phenomena like wildlife, jungles, and seas, all of which are being decimated to the point of extinction.\u00a0\u00a0 The incentive to pursue alternatives to fossil fuel will be muted by the vested interests now being appointed to political power.<\/p>\n

Sadly, the militant pursuit of oil will continue under the new administration.\u00a0 It will continue to underpin violence in the Middle East and Africa and the growth of armaments.\u00a0 The focus is moving to Central Asia where warlords are building empires which are liable to corruption and criminal activity.\u00a0 These states and oligarchs have not yet entered the military arena, though they might.<\/p>\n

The greed for oil and the way it is obtained continues to underpin geopolitical intent.\u00a0 It fuels the rhetoric of terrorism and dictators, democratically elected or not.\u00a0 This is dangerous.\u00a0 Some have gone so far as to put nuclear strikes on the list of possibilities.\u00a0 Do not discount that.\u00a0 In America, greed will probably encourage a muzzling of mainstream media and private dissent of the policies.\u00a0 Unfortunately, resistance by people wanting more open and equitable administration is likely to be violent.\u00a0 Civil unrest is never pretty, never cheap and a sign of regression.\u00a0 It is always the responsibility of the administration, never the fault of the people, but it is always people that get hurt.<\/p>\n

Equity markets have already bumped up since the election, buoyed by the expectation of looser regulation, including of the financial sector.\u00a0 The big will get bigger.\u00a0 But risks will increase.\u00a0 They might not crack the market, but there are fundamental weaknesses in the global financial system which have not been addressed.\u00a0 High on the list is the “pension crisis” a massive gap between pension obligations and the ability of funds to pay those liabilities.\u00a0 As pension terms get shaved and more people’s savings are lost, people will become unhappy and the bubble will implode.<\/p>\n

The weight of debt in the financial system limits the opportunity to expand credit, though that will be attempted.\u00a0 The foundation of the modern banking system, fractional reserve lending, is close to capacity as approximately 97% of money is now based on debt – the system leverage is high.<\/p>\n

Interest rates are low.\u00a0 This is reflective of the excesses that remain from the naughties boom and the ongoing disintegration of systems which makes leverage unattractive.\u00a0 Also, concerns over endemic risk in the financial sector which retains as much corruption and collusion as it did when the Global Financial Crisis struck.\u00a0 But there will be moves to increase interest rates by the new administration.\u00a0 This will make life difficult for most people who still retain large amounts of debt, mostly mortgages, and will make investment difficult for SMEs who still face challenging times.\u00a0 As always, those at the top will reap the greatest rewards.<\/p>\n

As the cost of money might rise, the cost of time, or wages, will experience continued downward pressure.\u00a0 Technology is where capitalists want to put their money.\u00a0 Automation is cheaper than people, and it doesn’t talk back.\u00a0 Science and technological advances are worthy, but the edge of science is so far beyond what we need to enrich our lives that new discoveries simply will not help us.\u00a0 And we will not be able to afford the gadgets without income.\u00a0 The answer lies not in more of the same, but in the direction of human enlightenment – that means education.<\/p>\n

Education systems are long overdue for a revamp.\u00a0 The traditional system does little to prepare us for life or teach us about the world we live in.\u00a0 The mindset of the education system demands liberation from teaching to refocus on learning, from bureaucracy to creativity, from individual performance to collaboration, from singular focus to the ability to think.\u00a0 There is too much to say about the direction education must go in.\u00a0 Sadly it is likely that the new administration will remove resources from public education let alone improve the system.<\/p>\n

In conclusion, if you are part of the establishment or connected to it, by your employment for example, the immediate future may well be bright.\u00a0 For those lower down the pyramid, not so much.\u00a0 The billions at the bottom will continue to be pushed down.\u00a0 The stability of global systems, especially financial and political, is increasingly fragile.\u00a0 The chance to evolve them remains low because few incumbent leaders have the vision or selflessness to change the system.\u00a0 The outlook for nature, for our planet, has not improved.\u00a0 So, if system change is your priority, take a breath, maintain your trust in yourself and be the change that you want to see in the world.<\/p>\n

Good luck.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

If you are an expert in your field you have a good idea of what is going on in that area.\u00a0 That’s how you make a living.\u00a0 Most of us express views about news and events that are outside our area of expertise especially if we think that they might effect us in some way, …
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