holonics
The Big Picture

body

mind

spirit

About
Astraea

Holonics

Library

Blog

Courses

Astraea News and Views
March 2007

archive     credits   sign-up

• Perspective  
• Geopolitics * Risk and terror
• Energy * Climate Change
• IT
• Integral systems and LOHAS
• Activities and Media
• For investment and trade notes see GRI Equity Review

Perspective

The boiling frog analogy* doesn't help much if you're the frog.

Everything we see, hear or feel tells us that we are giving up our souls for convenience.  That we are eating ourselves out of house and home.  But we keep doing it.  Even if we know we ought not.  Even if we know how to live differently.  But we eat more than we need and give less than we take.  Me too.

Watch the video here which presents a timeline of forecast developments over the next century.  The words and pictures show a trajectory in which humanity chooses a convenient, virtual reality rather than choosing to live with nature.

But take heart.  The observations post 2099 are at least insightful:  "conscious entities do not have a physical presence" and "life expectancy is no longer a viable term in relation to intelligent beings". (Both surprisingly by technophile Ray Kurzweil.)   That is something understandable, after all we all know we have an identity, a self, a spirit, that bit inside that is "me".  And we all know its not a part of our physical anatomy.  It may be in our mind, but it is not part of our brain.  (A scientific perspective is revealing too: 96% of all cells in our bodies die and are replaced each year - we don't die with the cells we're were born with.  But we keep our "self" irrespective of what happens to our bodies.)  So while we plainly don't know the route our system change will take, we already have the intuition of the destination, and its got nothing to do with money or power.  This system change is an ethical revolution.

Humans may be distinguished from other life (though not separated) by greater emotional capacities.  Our emotions give us morality.  The feelings we have drive moral judgement.   It is this capacity that is being stimulated by emerging consciousness around the world.  How we make decisions on moral, not scientific grounds, will determine the future of the species and planet. 

It seems that we may be realising that the water termperature is rising.  Let's hope we're not frogs.

* Put a frog in hot water - it will jump out.  Put a frog in cold water and heat it up - the frog will boil to death because it doesn't notice the gradual change.

Top

Geopolitics

As nation states vie for supremacy in various arenas, we can step back to reflect on whether this is a continuation of machievellian human politics or a system change is possible.  Of course I believe that change is happening, and necessarily so.  And it seems that the current move of China to become the world's largest economy in a few years from now is giving the opportunity for change.  As the weight of China's population is leveraged onto global economics and politics, opportunities for change are increasing.  New opportunities, new alliances, new cooperation are blossoming around the world.  And they are not focussed on the magnet of American wealth.  The American federation will always shine - the US is young, vibrant, rich and its culture as cosmopolitan as any - once the administration lets the country realign its priorities it will once again be in the vanguard of positive development.  Europe is a stable, expanding fraternity that balances the strength of tradition and organisation with the energy of new growth and innovation.  But China, India, Asia and other emerging markets are where new systems and leading social and industrial infrastructure will emerge in the coming decade - because it can.

Bush toured South America attempting to rebuild waning influence.  Many South American states are leaning increasingly to ward socialist regimes as a backlash to the grossly unequal wealth accumulated by a few rich, while the vast majority of the population stagnated.  His efforts will yield little.  A more strategic approach would have been to tour evangelical churches in South America which a the other fast rising force next to socialism.  It is fuelled by a need for more equality, wholesome values and a lively practice that reflects the pagan culture of not so long ago.  Bush could have flaunted his evangelical credentials and built a resource for the near future.  Instead his tour will be quickly forgotten and achieved little.

Much has been said about the authoritarian dynamic that Russia exerts internally and on its neighbours.  This has never been attractive.  While Russia is suffering the natural spike in crime and inequality that always comes from rapid development (US and western Europe are no exception - slavery and segregation) it also appears that there is more of a concerted effort to channel the massive oil wealth into building lasting infrastructure, rather than individuals.  The government is funding education, housing and healthcare.  We should not underestimate the benefit that will derive and you can expect to see a globally competitive Russia in a decade.

It is welcoming to see Japan and Australia sign a mutual defence treaty in mid-March.  While any kind of military action is reprehensible, this reconcilliation is surprising given the antagonism between the two countries in WWII, including the treatment of Australians in Japanese POW camps.  It is a token treaty but underlies increasing comfort with interdependence between nations.  It will also help balance China's position in the region - although China's goals appear far from imperialist - except perhaps with respect to Taiwan and Tibet.

According to extracts from a diary of one of his advisers, Japanese emperor Hirohito expressed doubts about going to war with China in the 1930s and 40s. They show Hirohito was afraid the Soviet Union would intervene. According to a diary entry in October 1940, Hirohito expressed concern that the Japanese army had underestimated China when it launched a full-scale invasion in 1937.  While the entries are interesting, the most encouraging feature is that these inside perspectives are being published, demonstrating that Japan is maturing enough to face itself, despite stumbles like Abe's denial of sex-slavery.

Canadian politics seem to be moving forward as the separatist Parti Quebec has lost support which is now given to Action Democratique du Quebec.  ADQ adopts a more modern federalist approach which will leverage multicultural identity.  Plans for independence may be shelved indefinitely. PQ and  the ruling Liberal Party both fared badly, losing its majority amid a surge by the right-of-centre ADQ, which advocates more autonomy for Quebec, but within a federal Canada.  It appears Quebec will have a minority government for the first time in more than 100 years.  The last referendum, in 1995, rejected separation by about 1% point; the new alternative has struck a chord.

Ireland Sinn Fein and the DUP agreed to agree.  Devolved government is to return to Northern Ireland following an historic meeting between the leaders of the DUP and Sinn Fein. Ian Paisley and Gerry Adams, sitting side by side for their first news conference in Stormont, confirmed that power-sharing would begin on 8 May.

Resentment towards the EU is growing in Turkey as their application to join the club is impeded by what are seen to be unnecessary and unfair hurdles.  While the delays may be reasonable and reflect the stated policies of the EU, Turkey does not feel that joining the EU is its only path and sees alliances with other neighbours, including Middle Eastern countries. It would be of more benefit for the EU to welcome Turkey and support its development as a gateway to the Middle east rather than not.  While not top of the list of priorities, Turkey may play an important role in integrating western and middle eastern states.

Another optimistic move in Cyprus.  Greek Cypriots have demolished a key section of the barrier dividing the island's capital city, Nicosia. The Green Line has separated Cyprus's Greeks from the Turkish population since 1974, when Turkish troops occupied the north. Ledra Street - a pedestrianised shopping area - would be the sixth crossing point on the divided island.

Zimbabwean opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai continues his struggle even after he and other activists were beaten while in police custody. Tsvangirai and 12 of his supporters were treated in hospital after what he called a "sadistic attack".

The WBCSD offers a non-partisan review of Policy Directions to 2050: A business contributions to the dialogues on cooperative action. Its emphasis is firmly on partnerships - between government, businesses and consumers, and its over-arching mission prioritises the need to maintain economic growth in tandem with a transformation of the way we all access, produce and consume energy.

International Women's Day was 8 March offering an excuse to focus on the planet's key resource.  It coincided with Japanese PM Abe's denial of sex slaves of the pacific, one of the most heinous crimes committed against women.  While Japan denied its role in the coercion of some 200,000 sex slaves in world war II, Germany, conversely as President of the EU advocated making holocaust denial a crime.

The World Bank embarked on its year-long, $20 billion-plus fundraising drive that will test donor countries' willingness to live up to promises made following the Gleneagles agreement on debt relief and to support the bank under the leadership of Paul Wolfowitz. The money is needed to replenish the International Development Association (IDA) – the bank's main financing arm for poor countries – for the three-year period from July 2008. The negotiations, which include discussion of policy priorities, will help define the shape of the World Bank for years to come.

March 25 marks the 50th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome. Europe has accomplished much during the 50 years. The Economist offers a special report which discusses its future.  While the EU has been very successful it has adopted some of the inefficient characteristics of bureaucracies of the past.  Its challenge now is to become more efficient, while expanding.  It will also need to take its culture to a higher level of openness and interdependence outside Europe if it is to maintain leadership in its geopolitical functioning.  Perhaps of greater interest than the report linked above is a video Europe in  2020 in which Dutch futurist Marcel Bullinga offers a tantalizing glimpse of Europe in the year 2020--a society boosted by the transparent, intelligent, virtual world. ("Europe in 2020" is also posted at YouTube.)

The new World Bank Online Atlas of the MDGs is a visualization of the Millennium Development Goals.  You can view maps of key indicators for each of the eight MDG goals. It is designed to make a wide range of data for over 200 economies easily accessible. Available in French and Spanish check it out here and here. More info and a non-interactive Millennium Development Goals Map: Charting Progress toward a Better World is available here.

Risk and Terror

The Strait of Hormuz has come on to the radar screen.  It is a narrow, strategically important stretch of ocean between the Gulf of Oman in the southeast and the Persian Gulf in the southwest. It is noteworthy because on the north coast is Iran and it is an important shipping channel.

We really need more thinking and proposals like that of Prof. Dr. Jean-Pierre Lehmann a highly respected expert on global trade and political economy who writes "What if we turned Iran from  a Threat to an opportunity?  Could Iran become another China?".  Lehmann usefully offers five actions to integrate, rather than aggravate, Iran.  His short list of steps Western leaders should consider are:

• Stop treating Iran as a pariah nation.

• Recognize and apologize for the abuses committed especially by London and Washington in the past, especially during and in the decades following the 1953 coup d'état.

• Engage more non-Western actors in the conflict resolution process in the Middle East, with India potentially playing a key role.

• Lift all economic sanctions against Iran unconditionally, giving strong encouragement for Western businesses to invest in and trade with Iran, providing Iranian executives with management education — and encouraging Iranian entrepreneurs to engage with Western markets.

• Accelerate and intensify Iran's accession process to the WTO.

David Hicks, an Australian trained by Al Qaeda, is the first Guantanamo detainee to be convicted before a military commission. He plead guilty to providing material support to terrorist organization.  The guilty plea may be hailed by the Bush administration supporters as affirmation of its efforts to detain and try terrorism suspects at Guantanamo, although government's detention policies still face legal and political challenges.  However, the day of the plea, the military judge Col Ralph H Kohlmann surprised the courtroom by barring two of Hicks's lawyers, leaving a as lone defense lawyer.  Australian officials, who described Hicks as a 'lost soul,' have been pressing the US to resolve the case, and Hicks might serve the sentence in Australia, where the case has drawn intense criticism.  Hick's father says the plea is simply to get out of Guantanamo.

The US is instigating a surge of force in Iraq in an attempt to quell the civil war and bring stability to society.  This is well beyond its traditional comfort zone of using limited resources to disrupt an enemy.  Strategically it might want to withdraw from Iraq, unless there is a mitigating factor that makes the miltary cost worthwhile.  The immediate reaction is that this compensation is provided by a secure supply of crude oil.  The problems in Iraq are well beyond the problems that they had pre-2003 - sectarian violence of the type seen in Northern Ireland and Palestine/Israel.  The surge in force is not a sustainable solution.  It can only be positve if it is brief, successful and followed by a massive nurturing injection of capital, infrastructure and services to re-create an economy.

Darfur is the place that needs a surge.  But who would want to die for Sudan?

A poll of Iraqis on the anniversary of the invasion by the US does not read happily - see the chart on the right.

Also, anti-war protests took place across America and elsewhere, marking the 4th anniversary of the invasion.

A new Palestinian elected government was a small consolation to the demands of Israel for engaging in a peace process.  Unfortunately Israel continues to rebuff the Palestinian elected government by not recognising it and continues to hold Palestinian funds held in Israeli banks.  Until the US and other Western commentators encourage Israel to behave in line with international law they will continue to bully others in the Middle East.

Top

Energy

Volumes in the global carbon market are expected to grow 50% this year, according to analyst company Point Carbon, which expects some 2.4 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent to be traded in 2007, up from 1.6 billion tonnes in 2006.  Their Carbon 2007 report indicates that the value of transactions in the carbon markets is forecast to grow much less dramatically between 2006 and 2007, despite higher volumes. Contracts traded to the tune of € 22.5 billion changed hands in 2006 but, given lower average carbon prices likely for 2007 compared to 2006, that figure is forecast to rise to € 23.6 billion. The results were derived from a web-based survey, for which the company received 2,250 responses, of which 60% represented emitting companies. Of those that were active in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, 65% claimed that the scheme had led them to "initiate internal abatement" measures to reduce emissions – up from just 15% in 2005. It found that moving production outside Europe in response to the EU ETS was mentioned by less than 3% of respondents as their primary means of complying with emissions targets. The EU ETS represented 62% of the market in terms of volume, and 80% of its value in 2006. Brokers accounted for 71% of trading, with the remainder traded on exchanges, the majority (above 75%) on the European Climate Exchange. On average, survey respondents expect the price of allowances in 2010 – in the middle of Phase II of the EU ETS – to be about €17.5 a tonne, compared to €15.55 currently. However, the other major section of the carbon market – the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism – is forecast to stay more or less flat, at 552 million tonnes (Mt) of CO2e, from 562 Mt in 2006.

The Ecologist presents a useful  report on Biofuels. 

The Economist's March Technology Quarterly offers a valuable review of current alternative technologies, including a review of the prospect of sourcing biofuels from wood.

MIT published a report about the future of coal. An interdisciplinary Massachusetts Institute of Technology  panel examined how the world can continue to use coal, an abundant and inexpensive fuel, in a way that mitigates, instead of worsens, the global warming crisis. The study, "The Future of Coal – Options for a Carbon Constrained World," advocates the U.S. assume global leadership on this issue through adoption of significant policy actions. (It follows a previous report about the future of nuclear energy, which took the position some years ago that  "The nuclear option should be retained precisely because it is an important carbon-free source of power."

The US switched to daylight saving time, or summer time, three weeks earlier than usual to cut fuel consumption and help the environment.  Summer time will last until 4 November, a week later than in previous years. The extra four weeks are expected to help cut energy consumption, as demand falls for electricity in the evening if it is still light.  The measure was signed into law two years ago as part of the Energy Policy Act which aims to encourage new energy technologies.

Top

Climate Change and Environment

The climate change debate is heating up!  The surge in concern about climate change which has been catalysed by the Stern Report, WEF and, recently in March, the IPCC report has tipped sentiment strongly in favour of those advocating change.  The most visible sign of this is that those who say that climate change is not necessarily human caused are becoming more reluctant to voice their position and are being vilified if they do so publicly.  Some have even received death threats.

While the massive bulk of evidence demonstrates that disruption of the earth's natural carbon cycle by massive release of CO2 from fossil deposits in a short space of time (5 decades) have destabilised climate, some influential people contend that evidence is not conclusive.  Those of us sitting on the fence should bear in mind some important considerations.  Firstly of course, is that because the majority view is that carbon is forcing global warming, regulations and lifestyles around the world are changing to reflect that view - so you should plan for that to happen.  Also worth considering is that there is persuasive evidence of general destruction of the biosphere caused by careless consumption which offers persuasive rationale for much faster adaptation of human consumption patterns.  All of the global problems, from the physical changes in the planet's chemical cycles, like the carbon cycle, to the metaphysical problems, like war and poverty are interdependent and resolvable by adapting current systems to reflect an interdependent system rather than one in which humanity is somehow distinct from the rest of the planet.

Both those saying climate change is natural as well as those saying it is human caused, should bear in mind that climate change is only a part of the spectrum of problems created by human overconsumption and it is important that we moderate our behaviour to reduce all these impacts on the biosphere.  After all, whether natural or human-caused, climate change is a problem.  And we have means to moderate it - these means should be employed.  A simple reference for the range of problems caused by humanity's overconsumption of natural resources is the Millennium Development Goals, not just the 7th.  Or you could use simple hierarchy of needs: freedom (resolve slavery, provide food and water), habitat (a place to live and a clean environment), humanity - education and a job for all.

A group of 65 institutional investors and US companies called on Congress to pass federal legislation to cut greenhouse gasses that lead to global warming. Organized by Ceres and the Investor Network on Climate Risk (INCR), Investors and Business for US Climate Action presented a "Climate Policy Call to Action" with detailed explanations of responses to climate change they believe need to happen on a nationwide scale. This is the largest group of pension funds, state treasurers, state/city comptrollers, financial service firms, asset managers, foundation endowments and US companies ever to ask the Congress and federal government to act on this issue. The "Climate Policy Call to Action" compliments earlier reports addressing climate change and policies from the United States Climate Action Partnership and the Global Roundtable on Climate Change and adds to these reports as it comes from the perspective of US investors and businesses.

Geo-engineering has found increasing favour.  Geoengineering involves planetary scale infrastructure built to cool the planet.  It might involve seeding clouds and changing weather patterns.   Or even more fantastic schemes - like carpets of mirrors floating on the sea to reflect heat up!  While these schemes may appear to resolve the immediate concern, they will create more problems of their own and may not even resolve the initial challenge.

Pan Yue sets out the case for green GDP accounting in his article Taking account of China’s growth.  China has the fastest growing, and soon to be largest, economy in the world and calculating its impact on natural resources, on public health and the environment is critical. Pan Yue is deputy director of China's State Environmental Protection Administration (SEPA) and is one of a new generation of outspoken Chinese senior officials, Pan has given rise to a tide of environmental debate, attracting enormous attention and controversy. This essay was first published (in Chinese) as A talk about green GDP (2004).

And more encouraging news from China.  March 31, 2007, marked opening ceremonies for the first “Green China Day,” established to increase awareness of the need for environmental protection.

Al Gore slips up, whoops ... apparently his house/office is not very environmentally friendly, even when compared to W's ranch.  The Gore's 10,000 square foot Belle Meade residence consumes electricity at a rate of about 12x the average for a typical house in Nashville (191,000 kwh versus 15,600 kwh). While there are mitigating factors (further discussed here), this is still a surprising number, given that the residence is approximately four times the size of the average new American home. The ranch home owned by Bush in Texas, (dubbed "the Texas White House") is estimated at about 4,000 square feet, all on one floor. The ranch utilizes an efficient geothermal heating and cooling system that pumps ground water through a heat exchanger to warm the house in the winter and cool it in the summer, a system that expends roughly one-quarter the energy of a conventional heater/air-conditioner. Water used by the house is reclaimed, treated, and reused, and rainwater funnels from the home's gutters into a large cistern, which holds the water for garden irrigation.  Well done W!

The Japanese capital has experienced its first winter without snow for 131 years.  The Japan Meteorological Agency said it had recorded no snow in central Tokyo between December and the end of February, the official winter months. This the first time no snow has fallen in winter since records began in 1876.

Top

ICT

Last month, after some unexpected ICT surgery, we were able to offer a first hand report of various operating systems including Vista.  As you would expect from us, it was not flattering to Vista.  However, to get a view from an MS evangelist read Vista: Slow and Dangerous by Stephen Wildstrom and save yourself cost and heartache for the coming years.

Computer giant Dell will start to sell PCs preinstalled with open source Linux operating systems.  The second largest computer maker in the world said it had chosen to offer Linux in response to customer demand.  Earlier this year, 100,000 people took part in a Dell survey in which more than 70% of respondents said they would use Linux.  Dell has not released details of which versions of Linux it will use or which computers it will run on, but promised an update in the coming weeks.  I can not help wondering if they are hedging their bets because of the bad rap Vista is getting - are consumers refusing to buy PCs with Vista (which manufacturers are under agreement to pre-load?)  It is also extraordinary in that it is a completely opposite marketing strategy  in the industry - normally customer demand is built by million dollar promotion pre-launch, not with no marketing  but a persistent demand from users!

The US government is about to start opening up the process of reviewing patents to the modern font of wisdom: the Internet. The Patent and Trademark Office is starting a pilot project that will not only post patent applications on the Web and invite comments but also use a community rating system designed to push the most respected comments to the top of the file, for serious consideration by the agency's examiners. A first for the federal government, the system resembles the one used by Wikipedia, the popular user-created online encyclopaedia.

Top

Holonics and LOHAS

Holonics * Health * Environment * Education * Living

Holonics

The roadmap for the 21st century, developed by Peter Pesti at Georgia Tech, is a condensed and stimulating inventory of predictions for the next century.  It is thought provoking.  Many of the extraordinary developments are listed for the coming decade or two.However, you should note that it focuses on technology, the advancement of which is almost taken for granted.  Some predictions are distracting - like the forecast of rebirthing an extinct species in 2010, which might be possible, but of course rebirthing its habitat will not be possible.  This, like other visions, focuses on science, technology and engineering, whereas for the planet to survive the problems created in the 20th century, humanity's growth and development must be in the spiritual sphere, while material consumption stabilises.  We are at the beginning of an ethical revolution which must accelerate greatly for a decade.  During this time we will either learn cooperation and interdependence with other life; or our imminent expiration will be assured.

The Zen of Investing is a nice parable depicting the ebb and flow of emotions which can cloud common sense in managing one's own investments.

It occurred to me that many people in small business are forced to manage holonically to survive. In our case, one example is managing human resources with over 100% turnover - one position has been replaced 5 times in the past year.  We employ help which must necessarily be flexible - tasks range from building to horticulture to logging to ground maintenance and sometimes sales and marketing.  The people that take on the work must enjoy the diversity and environment and realise that pay is modest (like working with horses - its for love not money).  And we have to be prepared to invest the time and effort to manage and train each person - some get up the learning curve quickly, others may not advance much at all - which is not long term sustainable for us.   Some of the approaches are perhaps unexpected.  We are flexible in our perceptions of who will succeed - some look great but can't stick it and vice versa.  We clearly state that the work is hard and pay modest, and keep our expectations modest for the first week.  We offer lots of independence on tasks which are rectifiable if not done well - if the person picks up the jobs quickly good, if not, we do not raise the bar until simple jobs are done properly.  we put a high value on politeness and communication - if they care to be polite they are less likely to mistreat equipment, other assets and relationships.  Obviously I prefer longer engagements, but now that we're more familiar with our own methods, an engagement of only a month will still pay for the matriculation costs, which is pretty good and keeps everyone happy.  It would be impossible to prescribe this system in a traditional organisation.  On the other hand an organisation built on open systems does this naturally.

Health

It is sad to hear of the degradation of organic standards in the US from within the industry.  Two rapidly growing and profit-obsessed corporations, Horizon and Aurora Organic, are sourcing much of their milk from intensive confinement dairy feedlots, where the cows have little or no access to pasture. These businesses started as authentic forward thinking organisations and have been hijacked by soulless management and shareholders.  Now three other major organic dairies, Stonyfield Farm, Organic Valley, and Humboldt Creamery have joined forces with Horizon and Aurora to lobby the USDA to keep dairy standards vague and unenforceable, by not requiring any specific percentage of the cow's feed to come from pasture. The National Organic Standards Board and the overwhelming majority of the nation's dairy farmers have repeatedly stated that at least 30% of an organic cow's feed during the growing season should be coming from pasture. Scientific studies have shown that milk and meat from pastured animals are qualitatively healthier than milk and meat derived from animals kept in unhealthy and inhumane concentrated animal feeding operations.

Meanwhile, European MPs backed an amendment to the new EU Organic Regulation that would reduce the threshold of accidental GM contamination of organic food from 0.9% to 0.1%. The European Parliament also called on the Commission to adopt stricter overall rules on GMOs which would see the ‘polluter pays’ principle applied to GM farmers found responsible for contaminating the food chain. Though the MEPs’ amendments are not binding on the European Commission the EU agriculture commissioner, Mariann Fischer Boel, reacted positively to vote: “Parliament has proposed a range of amendments which improve the  original proposal and the Commission will take them on board.”   The EC’s intention to treat organic food in the same way as conventional food in respect of accidental GM contamination has been a major source of concern for the organic sector and environment groups and I'm not sure where this will lead in light of WTO rulings and agri-chems deep pockets.  But it is certain that people want to retain the choice of clean food, even if regulators and big business tries to hinder this.

The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation plans to spend more than $500 million in the US over the next five years to reverse the increase in childhood obesity. It is one of the largest public health initiatives ever tried by a private philanthropy. The foundation estimates that roughly 25 million American children 17 and under are obese or overweight, nearly a third of the 74 million in that age group, according to Census Bureau data and a 2006 study published in The Journal of the American Medical Association.   The foundations effort intends to capitalize on and enhance efforts by the food industry and school districts and governments to address the problem. Several snack food producers are making changes in their packaging and ingredients, and three soft-drink companies said they would no longer supply sweetened drinks to school cafeterias and vending machines. Several states have mandated changes in school menus, increased physical education requirements and begun reporting students’ body mass index scores to parents.

Robert Wood Johnson, who built Johnson & Johnson into one of the world’s largest health and medical care products companies, established his foundation at his death in 1968 with 10,204,377 shares of the company’s stock. He committed it to improving the health of Americans.  The foundation played a major role in curbing tobacco use in this country, spending $446 million from 1991 to 2003 toward that goal, and it plans to use those experiences to shape its attack on childhood fat. Since 1995, the number of adult and teenage smokers has declined 12.6% and 18%, respectively.

Many of us have friends or family who have suffered cancer, even to death.  It is interesting to read that screening for cancer may do more harm than good.  It appears that early diagnosis is of little value because it does not result in better prognosis.  As a review of the research says: Despite these early diagnoses, though, there was no reduction in the number of people who went on to develop advanced cancer, nor a significant drop in the number who died of the disease (38, compared with a prediction of 39). Considering that early diagnosis prompted a tenfold increase in surgery aimed at removing the cancer (the predicted number of surgical interventions was 11; the actual number was 109), and that such surgery is unsafe—5% of patients die and another 20-40% suffer serious complications—the whole process seems to make things worse.

A new study, "How Should Treatment Decisions Be Made for Incapacitated Patients, and Why?" by D.I. Shalowitz, E. Garrett-Mayer, and D. Wendler suggests that an advanced computer-based decision tool can predict your preferences for life-support treatment as accurately as a family member.  The decision tool, developed by David Wendler of the National  Institutes of Health and colleagues, uses the incapacitated patient's circumstances (e.g., Alzheimer's patient with pneumonia) and personal characteristics (Native American, male, over age 60, well-educated). The program analyses treatment preferences of similar individuals in these circumstances and predicts how likely this patient would be to accept antibiotics to treat his pneumonia.  Wendler's team analysed how well the decision tool performed compared with surrogates (i.e., loved ones) who were queried about a patient's choices in a hypothetical scenario involving terminating life support.  Both the surrogates and the computer were roughly 68% accurate in predicting the patient's choice.  Wendler believes that improved computer-based decision tools could surpass the decision-making abilities of loved ones, who may be burdened by stress.

And research continues to demonstrate that the emotional disruption is caused by a failure of the frontal cortex which is induced by stress.  This failure is not evident in machines and therefore makes a powerful argument for reducing the control of doctors from the decision making process.  This is compounded by the moral hazard which results in over prescription, if not inappropriate prescription, by conventional medical doctors.

The UK Food Standards Agency wants food firms to cut individual portion sizes of snacks and confectionery products.  The call is contained in a newly published FSA consultation on Saturated Fat and Healthy Eating. The FSA believes that making smaller portion sizes more widely available could help to reduce Britain’s growing obesity crisis. Currently smaller portions are confined mainly to supermarket multi-packs. The Agency is also concerned that confectionery companies are continuing to market ‘king size’ bars and sweet packs, just under new guises such as "share bars" ... how about "share bar" for one!

Environment

Water, water, nowhere... March 22 was World Water Day, an UN initiative to draw attention to the dreadful conditions in which many millions of the world's citizens draw their water.

We mentioned Colony Collapse Disorder last month and the news continues to deteriorate. Mysterious decimation of German bee populations has bee-keepers worried.  The phenomenon in the United States is gradually assuming catastrophic proportions. The consequences for agriculture and the economy could be enormous.  Since last November, the US has seen a decline in bee populations so dramatic that it eclipses all previous incidences of mass mortality. Bee-keepers on the east coast of the United States complain that they have lost more than 70% of their stock since late last year, while the west coast has seen a decline of up to 60%. Experts at Cornell University estimate the value bees generate, by pollinating fruit and vegetable plants, almond trees and animal feed like clover, at more than $14 billion.

Walter Haefeker, on the board of directors of the German Beekeepers Association and vice president of the European Professional Beekeepers Association, says the problem has a number of causes, one being the varroa mite introduced from Asia, second being the widespread practice in agriculture of spraying wildflowers with herbicides and practising monoculture and thirdly being the controversial and growing use of genetic engineering in agriculture.  Manfred Hederer, the president of the German Beekeepers Association, has reported a 25% drop in bee populations throughout Germany with declines of up to 80%, and he speculates that "a particular toxin, some agent with which we are not familiar," is killing the bees. There is also a Penn State working group that feels that it is a concatenation of multiple stresses causing the bee death. Use of other pesticides - particularly imidacloprid which has leads to immune system failure and disorientation in other insect species - is also a front runner and less well publicised but possible causes would include the increase in various forms of microwave radiation and climate change. CCD-like events have happened before and one of them, in 1896, was associated with major weather events.  One positive sign is that bees in our roof have rejuvenated with the warm spring weather!

Albert Einstein said: "If the bee disappeared off the surface of the globe then man would only have four years of life left. No more bees, no more pollination, no more plants, no more animals, no more man."

Great news for us in Ireland -  BASF has abandoned plans to grow genetically modified potatoes here. It is now opting to grow them in Britain where there are fewer restrictions!   BASF delayed starting the trial last year citing the onerous monitoring requirements imposed by the EPA. The company has decided to abandon the Irish experiment and has opted to trial the GM potatoes in the UK instead, provoking the ire of environmentalists there.

The UN has launched StEP, a global initiative to tackle the growing mountain of electrical and electronic waste.  The private-public partnership hopes to create a global recycling standard, extend the life of products and improve the market for second-hand goods. The world's annual volume of "e-waste" is expected to exceed 40million tonnes in the near future.

San Francisco has banned "Witches' Knickers" (aka plastic shopping bags).  Retailers will have to start offering paper bags or ones made from potato starch.  The city expects to clean up the streets and trees and also save money by reducing clean up costs.  They also hope to save 800,000 gallons of oil a year!  In Ireland the taxing of plastic bags was very successful - almost overnight people started taking bags to the shops with them and plastic bags have virtually evaporated from the country lanes and city alleys.

The State of  World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2006  was released in March. Although the proportion of the world’s marine fish stocks rated by the Food and Agriculture Organisation as overexploited or depleted has remained stable over the past 15 years, the status of certain highly migratory and high-seas species is cause for serious concern.  The FAO voiced "serious concern" over a number of species of fish caught on the high seas and called for better monitoring and management of the stocks. "The condition of stocks of certain species that are fished either solely or partially in high seas areas outside of national jurisdictions is cause for serious concern," it says in its report. Of the fish stocks monitored, 17% are over-exploited, 7% depleted and 1% "recovering from depletion". More than half of stocks of highly migratory sharks and 66% of high-seas and straddling fish stocks, including hakes, Atlantic cod and halibut, orange roughly, basking shark and bluefin tuna, rank as either overexploited or depleted.

Education

It is welcoming to see national histories around the world being rewritten from a more impartial perspective.  China, Korea and Japan were in the headlines during March as they discussed and clarified their wartime histories, in particular recognising the horrific treatment of sex-slaves.  And Ireland is revising its history taught in schools.  As The Economist explains this revision is a healthy maturing of cultures as people recognise past injustices and biased reporting.  Unfortunately the practice of propagandist history remains, as we see in Zimbabwe which is experiencing the kind of suicide that Ireland committed nearly 100 years ago - breaking up economic units (farms) and putting them under the management of people with no skills or training for that role, while also cutting off relationships with the outside world. I wonder when America will own up to its own history - the conquering and oppression of native people less than 200 years ago, slavery, financing of the Nazi regime from early 1930s to early 1940s, apartheid and more. When these lessons are revealed in school, America will have matured.

In the UK, some local authorities are trying to cut their truancy rates by urging parents of persistent truants to say they will home educate.  Home education charity Education Otherwise says parents of truants and disruptive pupils are being urged to sign pre-typed de-registration slips.  The charity contends that the practice gives home educators a bad name and plans to take evidence of it to education ministers.  But it sounds like a possible solution to getting parents to engage more with their children, and it would at least remove the cost to other students disturbed by truants' behaviour.  New figures show the UK's secondary school truancy rates are rising. Truancy rates are 18% higher than had been thought after a new way of counting absences was adopted. Education Otherwise said it knows of at least two local authorities encouraging home education amongst troubled families in order to improve truancy figures.  (Parents can be fined up to £1,000 for allowing their children to truant.) 

In the UK, by law, parents of children who are already in school can opt to educate them at home once they have informed the head teacher. Home education is lawful as long as parents provide the child with an education deemed to be suitable to their age. They are not required to provide any particular type of education, obliged to have premises equipped to any particular standard or have any specific qualifications. Home education inspectors employed by the local authority are supposed to liaise with parents about the education of a child - but they do not have any legal right to visit the home.  (Home Education advice from the BBC)

Economists increasingly recognise investment in early years as providing the biggest returns for societies. And these are wider society gains, reducing the financial and social costs of prisons, health care, drug abuse, and unemployment.But there is a danger that these gains could be jeopardised if the focus of pre-school is too heavily on preparation for formal education. Making children feel failures in reading and writing before they have learned to interact with their peers (e.g. to play outdoors, and to work collaboratively) may undermine the other real gains of early education and care. Early Childhood Research Collaborative

In the UK a bicentennial commemoration to mark the abolition of the slave trade was interrupted when an invited guest to Westminster Abbey strode out in front of the altar declaiming hypocrisy of the proceedings and demanding an apology for slavery. He is the founder of an African pressure group called Ligali. Archbishop of York Dr John Sentamu balanced the protester's invective by saying "I hope the anger he expressed is matched by that he should have towards those African chiefs who grew fat through the capture and sale of their kith and kin for trinkets."  At least one benefit came from the incident - the event was reported in the papers and so perhaps more of us can become aware of the dirty secrets of or forebears.

The world's geologists are to bring together all their maps, producing the first truly global resource on rocks.  Known as the OneGeology project, it will pool existing knowledge about what lies under our feet, and present it through one web portal. It is led by the British Geological Survey and calls on scientists from more than 55 nations.  It hopes to be able to display searchable rock data for the entire Earth down to the scale of 1:1,000,000.   It should also become a key support tool for cross-national agencies and companies that want to investigate and understand the Earth's exploitable resources, including mineral and water reserves.

According to a study in the journal Nature, the extinction of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago had little effect on the evolution of mammals.  One theory had suggested the rise of the mammals was directly linked to the disappearance of the dinosaurs.  The evidence challenging the connection comes from the most complete family tree compiled for mammals. It shows how different groups, such as primates and rodents, are related and when they diverged.  An international team compiled the mammal "supertree" from existing fossil data and from genetic analyses. (Mammals family tree pdf 1.6MB) According to the established view, the extinction of the dinosaurs removed the constraint to mammals spreading, allowing mammals to diversify and flourish, and placing them on course to their present position of dominance on Earth.  Under this model, placental mammals split into major sub-groupings, which originated and rapidly diversified after the mass extinction event - thought to have been caused by an asteroid or comet striking Earth 65 million years ago (a point in time recorded in rocks and referred to by geologists as the K-T boundary). However, the supertree shows that the placental mammals had already split into sub-groups by 93 million years ago, long before the space impact and at a time when dinosaurs still ruled the planet. After the origin of these sub-groups - or orders - the rate of mammal evolution fell and remained low again until the Eocene Epoch, 55 million years ago. The start of the Eocene was marked by rapid global warming and an explosion in the diversity of mammal lineages.

Sportacus gives a great example of what education for young people can be.  Magnus Scheving created Lazy Town a funny, fresh show that blends movement, music, comedy and storytelling in a colourful, fast-paced, upside-down world.  Have a look here and see what you think.  There may be something in it for your children.

Living

Back to top.

Contact    Legalese   Site Map

know thyself - Socrates