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The US offically marked its population
passing 300 million in October. It underlines the increasingly
felt fact that the US has a supersized
footprint. The US is a world leader in gross domestic
product, per-capita income, innovative technologies, and many health and
educational standards, but also consumes more than its fair share of nature's
common resources. This can only become more worrisome as numbers increase.
With
just 5% of the world's people, the US is responsible for 25% of global
CO2 emissions. But its changing. While the current administration
seems to be living in a feudal era, there are strong signs that the upcoming
generation of leaders is far more conscientious and even capitalists are
becoming more holonic. BusinessWeek reports on Karma
Capitalism a growing trend of applying eastern philosophy and meditation
to capitalism, which is matched by growing ethical investing and yoga
in the boardroom.
The soft touch is also being pushed in China. Within China, the Soft Power of 'Harmony' has just been reinforced in the Sixth Plenum of the 16th Chinese Communist Party Central Committee, which upholds a policy of 'Building a Harmonious Society' as China's key goal for the next 15 years. This dramatic shift of priority was last mandated in the latest 11th Five Year Plan (2006 -2010). The strategy emphasises the importance of addressing such issues as income inequality, balanced development, poverty relief, social provisions, energy conservation, environmental sustainability, people-based and law-based governance, and the development of civil society. In addition to quantifiable energy saving and emission reduction targets in the 11th Five Year Plan, Liu Jian, Director of the State Council Leading Group Office of Poverty Alleviation and Development, unveiled an ambitious plan on 17th October to bolster non-agricultural economic skills as well as suitable village enterprises amongst 80% of China's poor in some 148,000 targeted villages with a view to lifting them out of poverty over the next five years. Whether or not this happens is uncertain because the track record is not good, but China has surprised us for a couple of decades now and may continue to do so.
This realisation of the futility of relying on hard power is growing globally. How many people still think that quick-fixes like the War in Iraq are success stories to be repeated? But soft power is not easy, requiring a great deal of patience. It does not lend itself to quick fixes. It works on the long-term psychology of attraction leading to the desired change. The intention is to devise tactic and strategy that "win without war" to echo Sun Tzu, or as Bruce Lee said "fight without fighting". For example, the fall of the Berlin Wall and the dramatic changes that followed, have not come about from any direct military attack. Patient, long-term engagement is more likely to yield a satisfactory outcome.
US news-spin seemed focussed on helping Republicans in the mid-term elections: imminent US troop withdrawal from Iraq, a booming Dow and a controversial Republican terror-linked TV advertisement to bolster support ahead of mid-term elections in November (the footage shows al-Qaeda leaders with captions of threatening statements, while the soundtrack of a ticking bomb plays in the background). But it wasn't as easily digested as it has been previously, when good news appeared coincidentally with administration milestones. People are more battle weary. And the integrity of the administration is under scrutiny.
October was awash in the news of Republican sex scandal at the start of October. Yet another sign of an ethical vacuum in the US administration was splashed across news media, after revelations that Republican ex-congressman Mark Foley had sent lurid e-mails to pages - young male staff on work experience. Mr Foley was a member of the House of Representatives caucus on missing and exploited children. Foley resigned over the scandal, said he is gay but denied any sexual contact with pages. In a further twist, a Roman Catholic priest admitted having an inappropriate relationship with Mr Foley 40 years ago. Bush of course said he was disgusted. The response of House Republican leader Dennis Hastert to the knowledge that Mr Foley was sending lurid e-mails was also scrutinised, and appears to be inappropriately liberal. House Speaker Dennis Hastert, who has said he didn't recall the majority leader telling him about former Representative Mark Foley's messages to teenage male pages, met with the ethics committee that is probing what House leaders knew about the contacts. He is not beyond cutting corners - his son is a Washington lobbyist - but he may survive the inquiry. Nevertheless his influence will wane. It may be OK to have relationships with youths, though not minors; its not OK to pretend you don't or obscure issues. Recent polls suggest that the majority of Americans are unhappy with how senior Republicans handled the page scandal and it can not help their mid-term election hopes.
Withdrawal of US troops was the focus of a "solution" for Iraq in October. Iraqi leaders agreed to taking full control of the country's security from US-led coalition forces over the next 1.5 years. General George Casey said Iraq's troops and police are 12 months to 18 months away from being ``completely capable of taking over their own security''. The Iraqis still will need ``some level of support'' from U.S. troops. U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad said the plan includes changing Iraq's constitution to unify sectarian and ethnic factions, establishing a system for sharing oil revenue and steps to crack down on militias. This may be a case of making a timetable in order to make withdrawal happen. And the time is pressing because it would help Republicans in time for US presidential elections in 2 years. But a solution in Iraq is not as easy as that. It is unlikely that an architect could be found to devise a way out and a lasting solution is only possible with the participation of Iraq and her neighbours as well as occupying forces, and which shares oil revenues.
Thai investigators are struggling to find definite evidence that ex-Premier Thaksin Shinawatra is guilty of graft. General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, who launched last month's coup to oust Mr Thaksin, said it was "difficult to implicate" him in any major corruption cases. The news is a major set-back for the coup leaders, who cited massive government corruption as one of the main reasons for the takeover. And there hasn't been a sudden improvement, so people are disgruntled. But Thailand will remain an attractive place.
The World Bank report on Africa paints a positive picture. Africa Development Indicators 2006 says fewer conflicts and increased economic growth has made 2005 - dubbed "The Year of Africa" - a turning point for the continent. Its annual study of the continent found that 16 African states had managed to maintain annual economic growth of more than 4.5% since the 1990s, enabling them to lift more of their citizens above the poverty line. The report also noted that inflation on the continent was down to historic lows, and that the region had managed to weather the impact of higher oil prices in recent years. Also, the number of African conflicts had fallen from a peak of 16 in 2002 to five in 2005. However, foreign investment in the continent was just $10 billion in 2004, only 1.6% of global foreign investment, and that more than 50% of the funds were spent in Nigeria and Sudan. The report also highlighted the difficulty of starting a business in many parts of Africa - taking, across the continent, an average of 64 days.
And, follow the link for an enjoyable lecture by Joe Stiglitz on globalisation.
The evidence is mounting that Bush's "war on terror" has created more of a problem rather than reduced it. Jacob Weisberg writes cynically "That Axis of Evil -It's here now. Thank you, Mr. President" showing how five years ago terrorism was fragmented and ad hoc, while today there are few fence sitters and many groups now have a target for their discontent. And freedoms have been restricted in America and Europe in a vain attempt to control terrorism. Even in the UK, General Sir Richard Dannatt, the head of the army, dropped a political bombshell in mid-October by saying that Britain must withdraw from Iraq "soon" or risk serious consequences for Iraqi and British society.
It may have been hoped that the verdict on Saddam Hussein delivered at the end of October would have proved everything a success. But it did not. The verdict was forgone. And unexpectedly it was a trial in which at various times the defence team has been barred from court, the prosecutors have been dismissed, the judge has been sacked (or resigned) and the defendant keeps being thrown out, or allowed to shout and take control of the courtroom. Not a convincing history.
There
is still staggering violence in Iraq,
where more than 3 1/2 years of war have now taken more American lives,
at least 2,791, than the attack on the World Trade Center. The United
Nations has said at least 100 Iraqis are now killed daily. October
was the deadliest month for American service members in two years.
Even more troubling,
the death
toll in Iraq following the US-led invasion has topped 655,000 - one
in 40 of the entire population - according to a study produced by the
Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in Baltimore and published
online by the Lancet. This is more than 10 times greater than any
previously compiled estimate, but relies on on the ground sampling rather
than official data which only accounts for registered deaths and does
not even match natural mortality rates.The US researchers have the backing
of four separate independent experts who reviewed the new paper for the
Lancet. All urged publication. One spoke of the "powerful strength" of
the research methods, which involved house-to-house surveys by teams of
doctors across Iraq. The Johns Hopkins researchers published an earlier
study in the Lancet in October 2004, which caused similar shock waves.
They say the new work validates the old and shows an alarming escalation
in violent deaths. Nearly a third of the deaths (31%) were ascribed to
the coalition forces. Most of the deaths - 601,000 out of 655,000 - were
due to violence and of those, 56% were caused by gunshot wounds. Air strikes,
car bombs and other explosions accounted for a further 13-14%. The authors
write: "We continue to believe that an independent international body
to monitor compliance with the Geneva conventions and other humanitarian
standards in conflict is urgently needed. With reliable data, those voices
that speak out for civilians trapped in conflict might be able to lessen
the tragic human cost of future wars."
The US may have unwittingly assisted the high death rate by allowing the wide distribution of hand weapons in Iraq. A federal report in October concluded that the American military has not properly tracked hundreds of thousands of weapons intended for Iraqi security forces and has failed to provide spare parts, maintenance personnel or even repair manuals for most of the weapons given to the Iraqis. The report was undertaken at the request of Senator John W. Warner, the Virginia Republican who is the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee and who recently expressed an assessment far darker than the Bush administration’s on the situation in Iraq. Mr. Warner sent his request in May to a federal oversight agency, the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction. He also asked the inspector general to examine whether Iraqi security forces were developing a logistics operation capable of sustaining the hundreds of thousands of troops and police officers the American military says it has trained.
The
tragedy of Iraq is becoming a tragedy for GWB. An ICM
poll ranks the US
president with some of his bitterest enemies as a cause of global
anxiety. America is now
seen as a threat to world peace
by its closest neighbours and allies, according to an international survey
of public opinion. Unfortunately America's reputation has fallen
drastically among former supporters since the invasion of Iraq.
The survey was carried out by the Guardian in Britain and leading newspapers
in Israel (Haaretz), Canada (La Presse and Toronto Star) and Mexico (Reforma),
using professional local opinion polling in each country. It exposes
high levels of distrust. In Britain, 69% of those questioned say they
believe US policy has made the world less safe since 2001, with only 7%
thinking action in Iraq and Afghanistan has increased global security.
British voters see George Bush as a greater danger to world peace than
either the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-il, or the Iranian president,
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Both countries were once cited by the US president
as part of an "axis of evil", but it is Bush who now alarms voters in
countries with traditionally strong links to the US. America's immediate
neighbours, Canada and Mexico, say the same with 62% of Canadians and
57% of Mexicans saying the world has become more dangerous because of
US policy. Even in Israel, which has benefited from American protection
from international condemnation for its occupation of Palestinian state
lands, support for the US has slipped. Only one in four Israeli voters
say that Bush has made the world safer, outweighed by the number who think
he has added to the risk of international conflict, 36% to 25%. A further
30% say that at best he has made no difference. In Britain 71% of
voters now say the invasion was unjustified, a view shared by 89% of Mexicans
and 73% of Canadians. Canada is a Nato member whose troops are in action
in Afghanistan. Neither do voters think America has helped advance democracy
in developing countries, one of the justifications for deposing Saddam
Hussein. Only 11% of Britons and 28% of Israelis think that has happened.
Related
to Iraq and the "war on terrorism", a BBC
survey indicates that nearly a third of people worldwide back the
use of torture in prisons in some
circumstances. More than 27,000 people in 25 countries were asked
if torture was acceptable if it could provide information to save innocent
lives. Although 59% were opposed to torture, 29% thought it acceptable
to use some degree of torture to combat terrorism. Even in the US 58%
say that use of torture was acceptable and are unwilling to compromise
on human rights. You
can see the results reported by Globescan here.
As we noted in Geopolitics, many of us are trying to find a solution for Iraq. Experience there and in other hot-spots shows how difficult this will be. We believe Iraq's solution requires two principles: Involve everyone, especially Iraq's neighbours; and let Iraq keep its resources, and use revenues from them to build infrastructure including schools, roads, power grid and industrial parks.
There was much concern over the underground nuclear weapons testing by North Korea on 9 October. North Korea said it would boost security in that face of US hostility, an uncomfortably visible sign that the military action in Iraq has in fact raised terrorism risk. This has raised the diplomatic stakes at the UN security council and at the six-nation talks. While the history of Iraq suggests that the US should be gearing up for an invasion of North Korea, that is not going to happen because there is nothing there that America wants or needs. DPR Korea is a tough challenge because neither hard nor soft power seem to be working and the internal machinations there are feudal and surreal. As in Iraq, a massive engagement involving neighbours is the shortest likely route to opening up and enriching of DPRK and we look forward to this initiative growing among China, South Korea, US, EU, Japan and the security council.
Israel has acknowledged for the first time that it attacked Hezbollah targets during the second Lebanon war using phosphorus shells. White phosphorus causes very painful and often lethal chemical burns to those hit by it, and until recently Israel maintained that it only uses such bombs to mark targets or territory. The announcement that the Israel Defense Forces had used phosphorus bombs in the war in Lebanon was made by Minister Jacob Edery, in charge of government-Knesset relations. "The IDF holds phosphorus munitions in different forms," Edery said. "The IDF made use of phosphorous shells during the war against Hezbollah in attacks against military targets in open ground." Israel has for the first time admitted it used controversial phosphorus bombs during fighting against Hezbollah in Lebanon in July and August. Lebanon had accused Israel of using the weapons but at the time Israeli officials said they were only for marking. (Phosphorus weapons cause chemical burns and the Red Cross and human rights groups say they should be treated as chemical weapons. The Geneva Conventions ban the use of white phosphorus as an incendiary weapon against civilian populations and in air attacks against military forces in civilian areas.)
Russia surpassed the United States in 2005 as the leader in weapons deals with the developing world, and its new agreements included selling $700 million in surface-to-air missiles to Iran and eight new aerial refuelling tankers to China, according to a new study for US Congress. Those weapons deals were part of the highly competitive global arms bazaar in the developing world that grew to $30.2 billion in 2005 (~ a fifth of Irish GDP!), up from $26.4 billion in 2004. It is a market that the United States has regularly dominated. In 2005, the United States led in total arms transfer agreements, when deals to both developed and developing nations are combined, the total was $12.8 billion, down from $13.2 billion in 2004. France ranked second in total sales, with $7.9 billion, up from $2.2 billion in 2004. Russia was third when sales to developing and developed nations were combined, with $7.4 billion, up from $5.6 billion in 2004.
A new report on global energy consumption and carbon emissions has been issued by PricewaterhouseCoopers. The World in 2050 compares a "business as usual" approach with a "Green Growth Plus" approach that calls for emission reductions due to a greener fuel mix, annual energy efficiency gains over and above the historic trend, and widespread use of carbon capture and storage technologies. Of the scenarios considered in the report, only "Green Growth Plus" strategy stabilises atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations by 2050 at what the current scientific consensus suggests would be broadly acceptable levels.
Renewable resources currently provide just over 6% of total US energy, but that figure could increase rapidly in the years ahead, according to a new report by the Worldwatch Institute and the Center for American Progress, "American Energy: The Renewable Path to Energy Security." Many of the new technologies that harness renewables are, or soon will be, economically competitive with fossil fuels. Dynamic growth rates are driving down costs and spurring rapid advances in technologies.
New research by Shell Springboard shows that the challenge of tackling climate change could create a market of up to £ 30 billion for UK business alone over the next ten years. The research, carried out by independent consultancy Vivid Economics for Shell Springboard, quantifies for the first time the potential size of the market for businesses that develop technologies, products and services that help combat climate change. The findings include:
A market in the UK created by the government climate change programme which could be worth over £30billion cumulatively over the next ten years. By 2010 the market will be double the current size;
The cost of tackling climate change in the UK in 2010 will be affordable at 0.3% of the economy;
Concerted international action to avert climate change could create a global market worth $1 trillion in the first five years alone;
Clearly identified opportunities for small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) across all climate change markets, with case studies of nine SMEs in the UK with leading edge products.
The UK nuclear industry was dealt a double blow in October, with fines and reports coming from all quarters. British Nuclear Group was served with a £500,000 fine for breaching conditions attached to the Thorp reprocessing plant at the Sellafield site in Cumbria. This is a modest price to pay for a leak of 83 cubic metres of nitric acid, containing 20 tonnes of uranium and 160kg of plutonium, in April 2005. On the same day, the government was forced to suspend its plans to sell state-owned British Energy after the company admitted that only one of its eight nuclear power plants was operating at full capacity. The directors also admitted that cracks had appeared in boiler tubes at Hunterston and Hinkley plants, and that investigations were underway into a ‘significant’ leak in a cooling pipe at their Hartlepool facility. This is the technology which is being described by energy minister Malcolm Wicks as ‘clean’. (Read about the real risks of operating a nuclear power plant.)
The Finnish financial minister Eero Heinäluoma annouced that Finland would end reliance on oil by 2030. If they get anywhere near achieving this the country will be a role model for all of us, as well as building a massive global economic competitive advantage. They are quickly following Iceland's lead to become a full "hydrogen economy" by 2020.
For those on the biofuel learning curve, from Brazil here is an interesting video (with subtitles) about ethanol.
The
ozone
hole reached another record in October.
Climate
change could shrink the global economy
by 20% at a cost of up to £ 3.68 trillion (12 zeros) unless drastic
action is taken according to the Stern
Review sponsored by the UK government and managed by Sir Nicholas
Stern. The report warns unless the world moves to cut green house
gases it is heading for a "catastrophic climate change" which would create
the worst global recession ever seen.
It warns that if no action is taken:
Floods from rising sea levels could displace up to 100 million people
Melting glaciers could cause water shortages for 1 in 6 of the world's population
Wildlife will be harmed; at worst up to 40% of species could become extinct
Droughts may create tens or even hundreds of millions of 'climate refugees'
The report is attractive because the study is led by an economist, rather than a scientist, the first major one to do so, and Stern says we have a "moral duty" to cut emissions.
The key to solving the crisis is getting the big polluting countries, such as the US and China, to cut their emissions. The polluters must be made to "pay the price" for the problems they are causing the planet. Green taxes and changing behaviour will help reduce the effect of climate change - but any schemes should encompass the globe. Unilateral moves would not be enough, for example, if the UK shut down all of its power stations tomorrow, the reduction in global emissions would be wiped out in just over a year by increased emissions from China. The review calls on the international community to sign a new pact on greenhouse emissions by next year rather than in 2010/11, when they had planned to agree a successor to the Kyoto agreement on cutting carbon dioxide and other gas emissions.
In October EU Energy Commissioner Andris Piebalgs presented his action plan to cut Europe's energy consumption by 20% in the next 14 years. If succesful, the EU could save more than € 100 billion per year. The plan would also help to cut the EU's CO2 emissions and therefore contribute to reaching the Kyoto targets. The Energy Efficiency Action Plan will be introduced over a period of six years. More than 75 actions were identified in ten priority areas :
new energy performance standards for different product groups such as boilers, copiers, TVs, lighting (from 2007);
new energy standards for buildings and promoting low-energy buildings ("passive houses") (2008-9);
making power generation and distribution more efficient (2007-8);
possible legislation to limit CO2 emissions from cars to 120g/km by 2012 (2007);
facilitate bank financing for investments in energy efficiency by SMEs and energy service companies (2007-8);
boosting efficiency in new member states;
coherent use of taxation with the preparation of a Green Paper on indirect taxation in 2007;
awareness and education campaigns;
improving energy efficiency in urban areas through a "Covenant of Mayors" (to be created in 2007) which will exchange best practices, and;
international agreements to foster energy efficiency worldwide.
It is questionable whether all these actions to improve energy efficiency will also reduce energy consumption (see EurActiv 18 October ).
New report, Up In Smoke 2, updates previous research on Africa and climate change from the an umbrella group of aid and green groups - Oxfam, the New Economics Foundation and the Working Group on Climate Change and Development. Arid or semi-arid areas in northern, western, eastern and parts of southern Africa are becoming drier, while equatorial Africa and other parts of southern Africa are getting wetter. The continent is, on average, 0.5C warmer than it was 100 years ago, but temperatures have risen much higher in some areas - such as a part of Kenya which has become 3.5C hotter in the past 20 years. Andrew Simms, from the New Economics Foundation, said: "Global warming is set to make many of the problems which Africa already deals with, much, much worse. ... In the last year alone, 25 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa have faced food crisis. ... Global warming means that that many dry areas are going to get drier and wet areas are going to get wetter. They are going to be caught between the devil of drought and the deep blue seas of floods." The great tragedy is that Africa has played virtually no role in global warming, a problem caused by economic activity of the rich, industrial countries. Between $ 10 billion and $ 40 billion is needed annually, but industrialised countries have given only $ 43 million - a tenth of the amount they have pledged - while rich country fossil fuel subsidies total $73 billion a year. The agencies say that greenhouse emissions cuts of 60% - 90% will ultimately be needed - way beyond the targets set in the Kyoto agreement.
Also in October the World Wildlife Fund warned that current global consumption levels could result in a large-scale ecosystem collapse by the middle of the century. The group's biannual Living Planet Report said the natural world was being degraded "at a rate unprecedented in human history". Terrestrial species had declined by 31% between 1970-2003. The biodiversity loss was a result of resources being consumed faster than the planet could replace them. To give a frame of reference the report notes that if demand continued at the current rate, two planets would be needed to meet global demand by 2050. They added that if the world's population shared the UK's lifestyle, three planets would be needed to support their needs.
Around the world, ash and thick smoke from wildfires can choke the surrounding skies. While this visible, murky mess seems to disappear with distance from the fires, polluting gases and small particles not visible to the human eye drift upward and are carried away by global air currents. Can large wildfires contribute to smog problems in distant places? Gabriele Pfister, a researcher at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, is part of a team that confirmed wildfire-generated pollution can indeed be an intrepid, unwelcome gobal tourist in Tracking Pollution Around the World. Scientists at NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office have developed sophisticated computer models to forecast how atmospheric circulation carries carbon-containing particles from one part of the world to another.
Kudos to Sir Richard Branson has pledged $3billion to fight global warming, including all profits from his travel firms including airline Virgin Atlantic and Virgin Trains over the next 10 years. The funds pledged will be invested in renewable energy development, according to Sir Richard, who made the pledge as part of the conference organised by the Clinton Global Initiative.
The Economist reported on telecoms convergence. The special report is a handy review of technical and economic drivers of the ICT industry. But actually using new technologies is a great way to understand the behaviour changing benefits. This is mentioned now only because we have been one of the first places in our area to benefit from new wireless broadband. Now while you may have had broadband for some time, for us it is only days old and already it has changed our telecoms behaviour (more VOIP) and seeded potential operational changes. It proves another step change in information access that is already very high: we saw the second plane crash the WTC in 2001 online within minutes of it happening via dial-up web news from a remote nook in Ireland; now we can access video coverage of global events too.
Second Life, an online virtual world, is fast becoming three-dimensional test bed for corporate marketers, including Sony BMG Music Entertainment, Sun Microsystems, Nissan, Adidas/Reebok, Toyota and Starwood Hotels. A sudden rush of real companies into so-called virtual worlds mirrors evolution of Internet itself, which moved beyond educational and research network in 1990's to become commercial proposition. Internet is fastest-growing advertising medium, as traditional forms of marketing like TV commercials and print advertising slow; early forays into virtual worlds could be next frontier for businesses in blurring of advertising and entertainment. For example, Reuters has opened a virtual news agency in the Second Life online world. The bureau will be staffed by Reuters media correspondent Adam Pasick who will report on the lives and business dealings of Second Life's residents. An avatar resembling Mr Pasick, called Adam Reuters in the game, has been created to act as a virtual reporter in the world for the news agency. Second Life has almost one million members and 400,000 of those are regular visitors to the online world.
A recent review by the Guardian reveals a fundamental shift in TV viewing habits which underlies the changing dynamic of advertising channel. The growth in purchases of DVDs of TV series now puts them on a similar footing to movies. Viewers are moving from TV to DVD, as they are also moving from print and TV time to online time. The result will be more effective viewing for consumers (less advertising and other TV filler). It also improves the nature of advertising driving it to be more authentic because viewers, being more selective, ignore or evade advertising that is pulp.
A new version of the Firefox browser for the web 2.0 age débuts in October. Built in to the updated software is anti-phishing technology, to prevent fraud, as well as built-in spell checking and a search engine manager. It is released to go head to head with just released Internet Explorer 7. The Mozilla Corporation, which oversees the development of Firefox, says more than one million people helped refine the final release. Now it is believed to enjoy a 12-15% market share of the net browsing market globally and in some nations the share is far higher.
Oracle, the big database company, announced that it would provide technical support for Linux software distributed by Red Hat, a leading Linux company. But Oracle also said its support would be at about half the price of Red Hat’s service.
Check out the new Yahoo homepage. The company spent huge resources on refining layout of their website, during which they discovered small changes can make massive differences in actual click through. Perhaps you can get some ideas for your online presence.
If you're feeling philanthropic, check out Goodsearch, a search engine that supports a variety of charities allows you to do good while searching well.
It appears that the new emerging growth sector in games is mini-games. The demand by players for simple games that can be played in shorter periods is unsatisfied. Nintendo has made this segment a key target in its newest wave of games and companies like Gameloft which makes games for mobile phones, are booming.
Google agreed to acquire online video-sharing company YouTube Inc. for approximately $ 1.65 billion in stock. YouTube had raised $11.5 million over two rounds of VC funding, from Sequoia Captial and hedge fund Artis Capital Management.
Although the US government has destroyed their online gambling industry through recent credit and bank legislation it remains to be seem whether the industry remains down or morphs, as so often happens in web industry.
Holonics * Health * Environment * Education * Living
"Giving makes you happy" is the message of researchers at the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke in Bethesda, Maryland. According to results published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences giving makes you feel good. But perhaps this is not news for Buffet, Gates, Soros and so many others, especially 30 and 40 something dot com millionaires, who have taken business principles to philanthropy.
And while the rich get richer in the UK and elsewhere, private philanthropy must also grow. Unfortunately in the UK, at least the bottom 20% give relatively 3x as much as the top 20%. That is they give 3% of their income, while the rich only give 1%. That too must change so that the rich give relatively 3x more instead.
Ad agency GSD&M tackles campaigns quickly with a model it calls "dynamic
collaboration." It is based on open
tech principles:
INCLUDE EVERYBODY Invite consultants from wildly different backgrounds --from economists to client executives to professional video gamers--to participate in brainstorming sessions
STRIP THE EGO FROM THE IDEA In the first round, ideas are typed anonymously on laptops. Everyone sees the ideas onscreen, but no names are attached. That keeps the boss and the new hire on the same level.
QUANTITY BEGETS QUALITY Dozens of staffers typing up ideas produces reams of data. Group leaders sift through it, looking for hidden gems that might have fallen through the cracks.
EXAMINE CRITICALLY The group examines the few winning ideas thoroughly.
They battle-test them with harsh critiques before focusing on potential
enhancements.
Visa a leading example of a creative corporate structure which flattens
ownership and control - it is a member based structure. Visa
is now restructuring. Visa is currently a private membership
association jointly owned by more than 20,000 financial institutions around
the world. In the first step, a new company called Visa Inc. will be created
through a series of mergers involving Visa Canada, Visa USA and Visa International,
which includes the regions of Asia Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean,
and Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa. Visa Europe will
remain a membership association, owned and governed by its European member
banks, and become a licensee of Visa Inc. Visa said the restructuring
will improve organizational efficiency, address certain legal claims that
exist in some markets, and increase access to capital. It will be
interesting to see if it maintains the principles of founder Dee Hock.
We expect that it will, and that might make it an even more valuable example
for others to follow.
The November December edition of the Futurist carries two useful discussions for futurists and analysts: their Outlook 2007 and a technology futures scenario discussion by Bill Halal. (You may order either online, or find a hard copy.)
We like Jose's signoff address: "Caracas, Venezuela, Americas, TerraNostra, Solar System, Milky Way, Multiverse" He is a leading transhumanist showing his holonic perspective.
Another big name is cleaning up its food. Walt Disney pledged to cut calories, fat and sugar from its foods over the next two years. Disney said it would target foods sold in its theme parks as well as licensed products carrying the faces of Mickey Mouse and other cartoon characters. Disney's 10-year deal to promote its films through McDonald's Happy Meals expires this year. Under the new guidelines Disney has also pledged to cut trans-fats from meals at US amusement parks by 2007 and from licensed foods by 2008. It plans to extend the healthy-eating drive "internationally" in coming years. Left outside the scope of the initiative was any mention of the considerable advertising for junk food products that is carried on Disney’s television networks, especially Toon Disney and ABC Kids. But the policy change was broadly hailed by food industry experts, who saw it as an important statement in the increasingly vocal debate over what parents want their children to eat and what the food companies are trying to sell to them.
This occurred at a time when health officials say American children are facing an epidemic of obesity. Last month, the US Federal Communications Commission announced plans to study links between the rise of childhood obesity and the adverts shown between children's television programmes. Already McDonalds has been introducing healthy option by offering salads and fruits alongside its burgers after previous criticism over its menu.
Across the rich world people are fatter than ever. In the UK obesity has quadrupled in 25 years with 24% of adults and 17% of 15 year olds dangerously overweight. The National Audit Office believes over 30,000 deaths are caused each year by the condition. A correspondingly massive diet industry has emerged with one unsustainable fad after another being sold as the miracle cure.
Coca-Cola and Pepsi have won their attempt to get the ban on their products in Kerala overturned. The court judged that the ban on sale and production of the drinks, brought in following the recent NGO claims that they contained high levels of pesticides, was harsh, but the main legal point that led to the ban being overturned was that the state government had exceeded its powers in ordering the ban. Such a ban can only be ordered by the national government. Our guess is that crony capitalism was involved.
This year John Lennon's birthday was Ecological World Debt Day the day of the year on which we begin to consume more resources than the planet can renew in its ‘annual lifecycle’. It is the day on which we cut down more trees than will be ready for foresting the following year, we trawl more fish than will reach maturity the following spring, and we produce more effluent than global ecosystems can absorb. Research by the New Economics Foundation, Global Footprint Network and Best Foot Forward shows that ecological debt is growing at an alarming rate. In 1987, Ecological World Debt Day fell on 19th December; a shortfall of only 12 days. By 1995, it had leaped to 21st November. Today, it stands as only three quarters of the year have elapsed, on October 9th. Although a burgeoning population places a great strain on the world’s ecosystems, over-consumption plays a principle role. Supermarket shelves are bowing under the weight of produce bought with borrowed resources, borrowed energy, and borrowed time.
Environmentalists have welcomed a rare admission from Japan that its fishing vessels have exceeded quotas and agreed to halve its annual quota of the popular southern blue-fin tuna as part of an overall cut of around 20% in the allowed catch in this part of the world. The WWF said other countries should have agreed greater cuts in their quotas, in particular Australia, where the quota remains intact. Almost all the southern blue-fin tuna caught in the world is sent to Japan,\which imports about 10,000 tonnes of the fish, which is popular for use in sushi or sashimi dishes. The World Wildlife Fund fears that will still not be enough to give the southern blue-fin tuna a chance to recover. The WWF says consumers should think carefully about how the world's stocks of tuna are managed, when they are deciding what to order in a restaurant.
Organic Myth covered by BusinessWeek raises the concerns over the authenticity of organics. It is especially interesting for three reasons: It is told by a magazine focused on capitalism, is American based (from where the money for subsidised, fossil fuel farming and GMOs flows strongest) and it covers many of the bases. Large incumbents are buying authentic businesses and morphing them into "certified eco" industrial infrastructure. But it is not certain that people are buying into it. Big money must evaluate the fact that people don't want a certificate, they want authenticity. And that means you can take a step in the right direction, like buying Body Shop, but if you don't back it up with attendant infrastructure and operations, that is do the right thing the right way, people learn fast, and then decide. If people are blindsided by money, the costs to remedy become so great that we don't make the same mistake again. If you would like to sit back to hear the same story told another way, watch the Future of Food, which reminds us how armaments manufacturers converted bomb production to fertiliser production to catalyse the explosion of chemical intensive farming.
There are also increasing concerns over organic standards in the UK. Supermarkets are putting pressure on organic food certifiers to lower standards so they can fully exploit a billion-pound industry which is growing by 30% a year. Fears that organic farming is falling victim to commercial pressures to abandon key principles have led to disputes in the Soil Association, the gold standard of the groups that certify "green" products. Lawrence Woodward, a pioneer of the organic movement and a former head of the association, said many producers were taking advantage of grey areas in the regulations for organic farming, and the public were being conned. "There are lots of loopholes in the regulations and in practice these are being heavily exploited," said Woodward, who is now chief executive of Elm Farm research foundation. "Organics is increasingly becoming industrialised and the consumer will one day wake up and see this stuff is not what they think it is." Woodward said examples of "lowering standards" were the large numbers of "derogations", or get-out clauses, allowing farmers to be awarded organic licences even though they do not meet the correct standards. These include the use of conventional feed for poultry, the continued practice of slicing the beaks off chickens to prevent them mutilating each other, and the sale of organic chicken from flocks of 2,000 and more, even though the association recommendation is 500. There is a fine line to tread: Richard Jacobs, the director of Organic Farmers and Growers Ltd, said: "What was a niche market is now becoming mainstream and that requires that it is run in a commercial and professional manner. I don't think that's the industrialisation of organics or dumbing down. It is the realisation of a fast-growing market."
For those of you following the problems associated with increasing water scarcity reported in recent months, you may be interested in this little case study in the US where a community thinks its aquifer water supply has been destroyed by extractions of a bottled-water company, but can not prove it. Either way the consequences appear disastrous and shows that water scarcity is also a problem in the world's leading economies.
The Lisbon Council, a Brussels-based think tank, released a new, leading-edge ranking on the state of human capital in Europe. Dubbed the European Human Capital Index, the ranking examines the significance of human capital for future innovation and growth. Specifically, the study measures human capital stock, deployment, utilization and evolution in 13 EU countries, and ranks those countries by their ability to develop their human capital to meet the challenges of globalisation. Among the key findings:
Sweden tops the ranking, doing the most to develop its human capital – and effectively deploying its human capital in the economy;
Italy is at the bottom of the list, along with Germany, Portugal and Spain;
If the current pattern of human capital development continues in the low-performing countries, citizens of Germany and Italy will find themselves with a living standard up to one-half lower than Sweden or Ireland within 20 years.
Coincidentally the Economist published a special survey on talent and a leader on the battle for brainpower highlighting how expanding intelligence in humanity, combined with unsatisfied demand for intelligent interdependent "workers", is changing the industrial landscape. As the survey concludes: "The success of advanced economies is increasingly dependent not on their physical capital but on their capacity to mobilise their citizens' brainpower. The rise of a global meritocracy offers all sorts of benefits, from higher growth in productivity to faster scientific progress. It can boost social mobility and allow all sorts of weird and wonderful talents to bloom. The talent wars may be a source of trepidation for companies and countries. But they should also be a cause for celebration." At the root of this challenge is improving education across the spectrum from infant to adult.
A new US report finds that building "green" would save an average school $100,000 each year - enough to hire two new additional full-time teachers. Coincidentally, Campus Consortium for Environmental Excellence has created this List of Environmental Performance Indicators. Some indicators on the list are honed while others are still incomplete. Feedback is still encouraged. Indicators highlighted here include energy, water, material resources and waste disposal, food, land, transportation, the built environment, community, research, as well as a number of bulleted points on environmental management systems. And a wide range of tools and resources for campus sustainability professionals are available online at the Association for the Advancement of Sustainability in Higher Education.
Parents in particular, but teachers too, will value this Ecologist article on the changing world of children growing up in the UK. Rachel Ragg investigates how a nanny state, paranoid parenting and cynical drugs companies rob children of the freedom to grow up.
We learned that Neil Bush, W's brother, launched an educational business a few years ago and is now ramping up marketing of their computerised learning aid. It seems to be genuinely doing something positive and you can see Ignite's website here, or read about it here.
In the UK a report here says that private schooling is significantly less affordable than 5 years ago.
Overshoot day or Ecological debt day, noted above in Environment, is a direct consequence of our lifestyle. Overconsumption. The day that we begin living beyond our environmental means is creeping ever earlier in the year as human consumption grows:
humanity first went into global ecological debt in 1987, with the first ecological debt day on 19 December that year;
by 1995 it had jumped a month forward to 21 November;
now, new estimates based on the latest available data indicate that in 2006, we run out of ecological resources today, Monday 9 October.
Andrew Simms, nef’s policy director says: “By living so far beyond our environmental means, and running up ecological debts we make two mistakes. First, we deny millions globally who already lack access to sufficient land, food and clean water the chance to meet their needs. Secondly, we put the planet’s life support mechanisms in peril.”
While we consider overconsumption on a planetary scale, there is increasing evidence that a calorie restricted diet can increase longevity and vitality. Calorie restriction, involves eating about 30% fewer calories than normal while still getting adequate amounts of vitamins, minerals and other nutrients. Aside from direct genetic manipulation, calorie restriction is the only strategy known to extend life consistently in a variety of animal species. How this drastic diet affects the body has been the subject of intense research. Recently, the effort has begun to bear fruit, producing a steady stream of studies indicating that the rate of aging is plastic, not fixed, and that it can be manipulated. In the last year, calorie-restricted diets have been shown in various animals to affect molecular pathways likely to be involved in the progression of Alzheimer’s disease, diabetes, heart disease, Parkinson’s disease and cancer. Earlier this year, researchers studying dietary effects on humans went so far as to claim that calorie restriction may be more effective than exercise at preventing age-related diseases.
In the UK, analysis published in October shows that incidents of domestic violence rose by up to 30% on days when the England team was playing in the World Cup football finals. Figures from Britain's Home Office revealed a significant increase in assaults, mainly by men on their female partners, when the national team was in action. But Home Office Minister Baroness Scotland said that the statistics also showed that a campaign against domestic violence, launched to coincide with the World Cup, had led to an increase in the number of attackers who were charged with offences rather than merely being cautioned. She said that the police should now introduce detailed plans to deal with a surge in domestic violence cases during major sporting events. Local forces are now using new techniques - such as secret video cameras in victims' homes and cameras on police officers' helmets - to gather evidence and increase the number of convictions for domestic violence. The crime accounts for 15pc of all violent offences in Britain and 35pc of murders. One in four women and one in six men will experience domestic violence at some point in their lives. As part of a major government strategy to deal with the issue, 19 police forces in England and Wales monitored incidents throughout the World Cup finals in Germany this summer. The biggest surge in reports of domestic violence was the 31.41pc increase on Saturday June 10 when England beat Paraguay 1-0. Incidents rose from an average of 400 incidents from the same weekday during earlier research to 700 on the match day.
In the US, married couples, whose numbers have been declining for decades as a proportion of American households, have finally slipped into a minority, according to an analysis of new census figures by The New York Times. The American Community Survey, released this month by the Census Bureau, found that 49.7 percent of households include a married couple. The proportion of households consisting of people living alone is more than 1 in 4, 27%.
In the US the New Jersey Supreme Court decided that gay couples are entitled to the same legal rights and financial benefits as heterosexual couples, had immediate ripple effects, especially in Senate races in some of the eight states where voters are considering constitutional amendments to ban gay marriage. But the judge ordered the Legislature to decide whether their unions must be called marriage or could be known by another name. The New Jersey court did not go as far as Massachusetts, which in 2003 became the first state to permit gay marriage. Instead, it could be considered the new Vermont, which created civil unions for gay couples in 2000, in the politically, legally and culturally charged world of same-gender marriage.
As the US hits 300 million people lets glance at the population density distribution. 300 million is 4.57% of the total world population, remarkably close to that of 1900, when 76 million Americans made up 4.6 % of the world's 1.65 billion people. As the US share remains the same, the rest of the world prepares for change. The European and East Asian shares of world population are set to drop sharply; those of Southeast Asia, the Pacific islands and Latin America will remain roughly stable; those of South Asia, the MiddleEast, and especially sub-Saharan Africa will surge.
The United Nations has some interesting population data too. Here is a brief report, with tables and projections by region from 1750-2150. And separately, the Population Reference Bureau suggests that 106 billion humans have lived, loved, and died off since the origin of the species. Its datafinder has lots of demographic statistics.
France will give up smoking in public places from February 2007 and in cafes and bars from early 2008. It will be good for the health of France, though I hope it does not change the cafe atmosphere or the culture.
A group of Malawian charities tried to stop pop star Madonna's bid to adopt a boy. The Human Rights Consultative Committee claims the adoption of one-year-old David Banda is unlawful because Madonna has not lived in the African country. The singer and husband Guy Ritchie have been granted an interim court order approving the adoption. While adopting the boy, she also pledged to donate about $ 3 million to help 900,000 orphans in Malawi. The whole affair seemed to be an unnecessary drama.
The gathering on executive philanthropy held on 10 October brought a valuable connection between business and philanthropy, relevant both to organisations' CSR and individuals wanting to build philanthropic enterprise. For inspiration read Handy's The New Philanthropists which he presented.
Carpet company Interface, Inc. has launched InterfaceRAISE, a corporate consulting resource that will amplify Interface's efforts to educate others seeking to implement the necessary steps for becoming sustainable.
Changemakers.org has quite an extensive library on many development subjects from microenterprise to equality.
“When the Levees Broke: A Requiem in Four Acts” the powerful HBO documentary about the federally bungled disaster in the Gulf states in August and September 2005 is now on DVD and an extended 6 hours version .
We heard about the following award whose subject we applaud. The Prize,
for USD 20,000 will be awarded for a written paper on the subject of
"Innovative Ideas for Ethics in Finance". All the details are on the
website - please take a look at it: http://www.robincosgroveprize.org
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