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Astraea News and Views - April 2006
PerspectiveIt is spring in the temperate climate of the northern hemisphere. Blossoms scent the air and foxes are trying to eat our chickens! On the other side of the planet autumn must be showing its face with the colouring of leaves and slow down of vegetative growth. It is a time of change in nature. It seems too, that our metaphysical world is facing great change. San Francisco commemorated the April 1906 earthquake. Today, slipping tectonic plates can cause disasters, like the Tsunami of December 2004 but the disasters that will hurt most are those manufactured by human society. Our Investment and Finance review raises concerns about increasing instability in global financial markets - which is not recognised by prices in those markets. What is quite certain however, is that confidence and optimism are maintaining market buoyancy despite some serious imbalances, particularly in our global superpower. Perhaps one of the best ways to avoid a disaster is to predict it; so having just done that, we can be more comfortable that it won't happen! Nevertheless, it is increasingly important that people of privilege, like the wealthy and educated, like us all, become more aware of and responsive to natural and social imbalances. Against this perspective of high imbalances, we found ourselves discussing opportunities for action with a range of professionals and friends. The way in which we choose to live and manage our business and assets depends first on whether we feel the pressure for change - usually the pressure to pay the rent or mortgage is more pressing, how we interpret our options - hedonistic or holonic, and how we believe the world works - simply of chaotically. Most of us will enjoy the status quo and profit from that. "Ockham's razor" will be quoted - the simplest answer is the right answer - and any passion to take on a challenge that might have motivated us in our 20s has dissipated as pragmatism has brainwashed our approach to fit in with the crowd we run with. Alternatively, we might believe that chaos and complexity science is the appropriate interpretation of the world and therefore seizing opportunity for change becomes the quickest way to achieve objectives, even if they are hedonistic. I believe that our options span that spectrum of simple to chaotic dynamics - our options are "quantum". If we choose to follow the well trodden path we will win because if that path leads to the riches we seek we will be happy, and if it does not, we will be satisfied because everyone else is on it too. Alternatively, if we want to buck convention and follow emerging opportunities, as many entrepreneurs do, we will also be happy because, if we are successful we will be rewarded, and if we fail we will be consoled by the enormity of the challenge that we took on and the knowledge that others failed too. What is certain is that if you are reading this you are aware that choices are available and you must choose. What is also certain is that we will see the consequences of our choices before our children take on our responsibilities. The choices we make will create a world very different from today and we will see it unlike generations before us. Enjoy the ride! GeopoliticsPerhaps the most pressing story circulating in April was the concern over Iran's nuclear ambitions and the related spike in the price of oil. Iran claimed that it had achieved a new milestone in uranium enrichment and also that it had obtained advanced enrichment centrifuges. At the same time its rhetoric is strong. The surprise that it has nuclear weapons capability would certainly unhinge many observers, though that has not happened. The events have led to concerns that Iran might become a dangerous military trigger. Whether this is acceptable depends on whether one feels that Iran is an ally or not. Unfortunately the posturing of developed nations has tended to be confrontational rather than inclusive and so the relationship is not friendly. It would be very unfortunate if Iran were to become another Iraq. Fortunately this does not seem likely at the moment, but the sooner the possibility of this occurring dissipates, the better. In Thailand, Thaksin Shinawatra, a billionaire turned populist politician, said that he would step down as prime minister, despite winning an election, admittedly boycotted by many. This appears to be the end-game of five years of increasingly tumultuous rule and breaking a political stalemate over demands for his resignation that had gripped the country for the past two months. However, the election failed to produce a quorum for parliament so the King and judiciary are involved in untangling the mess. It is unfortunate that demonstrators won over democracy, even if one contests the integrity of the democratic process in Thailand. What is positive about this state of affairs is that Thaksin did the "honourable thing" by stepping aside. It is a positive sign and demonstrates unusual political maturity, which can be contrasted with Italy's recent election. In Italy, Silvio Berlusconi refused to admit defeat in the Italian election despite a court ruling in favour of his opponents. The Supreme Court confirmed a narrow win for the centre-left opposition led by Romano Prodi whose coalition won 348 seats in the chamber of deputies vs 281 for the centre-right and 158 in the senate vs 156. After a meeting with his advisers, Berlusconi considered a further legal challenge and took a couple of weeks before stepping back. Berlusconi's belated, de facto concession came on a day when it seemed clear he and his centre-right allies may still wield considerable power even if out of office. Prodi's centre-left coalition managed to elect leaders for the two houses of Parliament only after four difficult votes in each house over two days and aggressive challenges from the centre-right in the Senate. While bickering seems likely to continue, the increasing influence of Prodi will benefit Italy more than the corrupt system under Berlusconi. Italian politics may yet mature. Nepal suffered protests led by a seven-party alliance against King Gyanendra's officious grapple for power. The populist movement resulted in the king backing down at the end of April, apologising and recalling the parliament dissolved in 2002. Demands for a new assembly to rewrite the constitution are expected to be acquiesced to and there may be a debate on whether Nepal should have a monarchy at all. Maoist rebels have called a cease-fire. The outlook for Nepal is better than it has been for some years. China's President Hu visited the US, stopping of at Microsoft on the way to the White House, and followed this with a visit to Africa. Both are signs of an increasingly globally engaged China gradually taking on its role as a superpower and leading to a more holonic, and therefore stable, balance of power in the world. Bolivia made moves to nationalise energy assets. This follows similar moves by Venezuela. These actions are basically unjust, as the nationalisation of farms in Zimbabwe was earlier in the decade. Unfortunately, these actions are catalysed by extending inequalities and invariably everyone loses - the people who have their assets confiscated and the new owners who are unable to manage them properly. Marches by hundreds of thousands of people seeking legal status for illegal immigrants in the US were seen on TV around the world. The illegal immigrants of the US contribute significantly to the US economy and they are seeking the rewards of citizenship of the country to whose wealth they contribute. While it is a sensitive issue and entirely appropriate to have effective border controls, these developments point to an increasingly inclusive culture which may in fact benefit the US tremendously. If people at the lower end of the economic pyramid are recognised and rewarded more appropriately it will reduce inequalities and lead to a richer society. At the other end of the spectrum, more efficient visa processing would allow thousands of people seeking to study in the US, but unable to gain visa access, to once again consider the US as their destination of choice. The trend over the past three years has to greatly curtail the influx of foreign students to US universities with the resultant reduction of revenue opportunities and academic standards. Ironically, in April, Carnegie-Mellon unveiled a statue of their first PhD graduate, who was from China. The IMF/World Bank seems to be facing a crisis of legitimacy as its role as an economic saviour seems to be less viable and with this changing role its revenue streams are drying up while costs remain. Walden Bello presents a critical review of the meetings held in April here. While the meetings took place 70 activists from different parts of the world attending the two-day strategy meeting, at the Institute for Policy Studies, to take the opportunity to weaken the hold of these institutions on the governance of the world economy. Since the Asian financial crisis which began in 1996, countries such as Thailand, Philippines, China, and India have refrained from new borrowings from the IMF. Now also Latin American countries, led by Brazil and Argentina, are aiming to pay off their debts to the IMF in order to gain independence from an institution that is disliked in the region. Ngaire Woods, an Oxford University specialist on the IMF and World Bank, revealed that the IMF projects that payments of charges and interest to the organization would more than halve from US$3.19 billion in 2005 to US$1.39 billion in 2006 and halve again to US$635 million in 2009, creating what she described as "a huge squeeze on the budget of the organization". With key client countries now ending their financial ties, the Fund must discover new revenue sources. A budget crisis may also be occurring at the World Bank. According to Woods: Income from borrowers' fees and charges dropped from US$8.1 billion in 2001 to US$4.4 billion in 2004, while income from the Bank's investments went from US$1.5 in 2001 to US$304 million in 2004. China, Indonesia Mexico, Brazil and many of the more advanced developing countries are going elsewhere for their loans. On top of this the organisations' style and approach do not seem to serve the needs of developing economies. The organisations are bloated - the World Bank has 10,000 professionals but could do the job with perhaps 2/3 of that. They are also seen to be removed from the realities of life in these countries resorting to academic solutions which may not be practical on site and may not mesh with the political framework of the countries in which they operate.This is not helped by the recognition by World Bank President Paul Wolfowitz that corruption at the Bank is rife and must be curtailed. While these views ought to be tempered by the good that the organisations do and the seeming lack of alternatives, it is entirely appropriate to evaluate their performance and consider new approaches. Risk and TerrorThree political assassinations occurred in Iraq all related to newly appointed Iraqi vice-president, Tariq al-Hashemi, Iraq's most prominent Sunni Muslim who was elected as part of efforts to form a unity government. His sister, Meysoun al-Hashemi and her bodyguard were gunned down while travelling in her car through the Hay al-Ilam part of Baghdad. Ms Hashemi was the head of the women's affairs department in the Iraqi Islamic Party, the biggest Sunni Muslim political faction, which is headed by Tariq. It followed the killing of Mr Hashemi's brother, Mahmoud. The brother of another top Sunni politician, Saleh al-Mutlak, was also abducted and killed early in the month. These do not bode well for a stable government. In Russia, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the jailed oil tycoon, was slashed in the face in a Siberian prison colony, according to his lawyers. The injury was not life-threatening but it raised fresh issues about Mr. Khodorkovsky's safety. It is unlikely that this could have happened without acquiescence from the top of Russian government and underlines the unpredictable nature of operating in Russia. In the UK, new laws making it illegal to glorify terrorism and distribute terrorist publications came into force. The Terrorism Act 2006 allows groups or organisations to be banned for those offences and covers anyone who gives or receives training. The act makes nuclear sites into designated areas where trespass can become a terrorist offence, which puts a rather dark colour on the memories of Greenpeace protesting nuclear sites in the 1980s. It seems that the law is drawn too widely - anyone supporting violence to remove a regime anywhere in the world now or in the past could theoretically get caught up. MPs fortunately voted down plans to allow police to hold suspects for up to 90 days without charge. These laws in the UK, while sad, do not have the same perniciousness as the US Patriot Act which was drawn to our attention when one of our clients, a person of the highest integrity who has donated more than half his income to charity for over 20 years, had checked-in baggage rifled by security at JFK airport and some items stolen under the protection of the Patriot Act. During Hu's visit to the White House, Bush is said to have raised the issue of human rights. This drew attention to an analysis of executions per capita prepared by Amnesty International in 1998 which in fact puts the US in unexpected company of countries like Chad. April saw the commemoration of the 20th anniversary of the Chernobyl disaster. The repercussions of that event put a serious question over the appropriateness of a nuclear energy policy. Some pictures of the results of Chernobyl are online here. Is bird flu a hoax? Bird flu obviously exists and has been exacerbated by industrial farming practices, however, we came across a disturbing analysis of the conflicted interests surrounding bird flu. In October last year, President Bush said a minimum of 200,000 people will die from the avian flu pandemic but that it could be as bad as 2 million deaths in the USA alone. This was used to justify the immediate purchase of 80 million doses of Tamiflu, a drug that does not treat the avian flu, but only decreases the amount of days one is sick and can actually contribute to the virus having more lethal mutations. These fears contributed to the U.S. placing an order for 20 million doses at a price of $100 per dose - a total of $2 billion. Tamilflu, now sold by Roche, was actually developed by Gilead that 10 years ago gave Roche the exclusive rights to market and sell Tamiflu. According to the Gilead website Gilead receives payments from Roche for the successful completion of program milestones and royalties on product sales. (http://www.gilead.com/wt/sec/partners) Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld was made the chairman of Gilead in 1997. Since Rumsfeld holds major portions of stock in Gilead, he handsomely profits from the scare tactics of the US government that were used to justify the purchase of $2 billion of Tamiflu. Another twist in the tale - Rumsfeld, as chairman of G.D. Searle, pressured the FDA to get aspartame approved. The FDA blocked its approval for ten years before Rumsfeld twisted arms at the FDA. Now aspartame, an artificial sweetener as ubiquitous as it is toxic (see the Ecologist), continues to poison people around the world. EnergyOil prices bounced around highs in the low $ 70s a barrel, fuelled by growing fears over Iran's nuclear stand-off with the international community, and passing last year's previous highs reached after Hurricane Katrina. Prices have risen 16% in the past month as Iran's nuclear row has worsened and Nigerian supplies have been disrupted. The spike in oil prices catalysed alternative energy and efficiency initiatives. Airlines, in particular budget carriers, are increasingly leveraged to the price of fuel and efficiency gains can make or break businesses. New York delivery wholesale fuel has moved from $ 0.81 per gallon in April 2003 to $ 2.16 per gallon this April. For example, efficiencies at American Airlines can deliver 3% fuel consumption savings which translates to over $ 220 million in annual savings at current prices. Despite demonstrable returns from efficiency, and rhetoric from the White House, the backing for energy efficiency seems to be waning in the US. Federal funding for energy efficiency in the draft 2007 budget is down 17% overall from 2006 and 25% down from 2002 levels. Some individual programmes are planned to be cut completely. If funding is diverted to alternative fuels that would be some consolation but, as the American Airline illustration above shows, the quickest way to biggest gains is through efficiencies. Energy efficiency is more effective than nuclear, even on a simple comparison without evaluating potentially massive nuclear risk, like Chernobyl. For example, € 1 investing efficiency buys 7x more solution than € 1 invested in nuclear, according to the Rocky Mountain Institute. In the UK, if every light bulb were replaced with an energy efficient model it would save almost the equivalent of almost 2 advanced gas reactors. UK power firms could make a £1billion windfall profit from the EU Carbon Emissions Trading Scheme according to Peter Bedson, from IPA Consulting. The windfall is likely because many firms have benefited from increases in electricity prices brought about by the scheme without needing to make any extra investment in return. Part of the problem is that firms have been given, free-of-charge, the carbon emissions permits on which the scheme is based, which is like the government giving energy firms free money. The windfall lies in the design of the EU emissions trading scheme, which works by governments setting a limit for the total amount of carbon that can be emitted from its heavy industry and the power sectors. Instead of banning firms from exceeding the limit, governments hand the firms free pollution allowances up to a certain level. If a firm can cheaply cut its pollution by installing better technology it will have carbon permits to spare. If another firm is overshooting its pollution limit it will need to get hold of extra allowances. The firms can then trade carbon permits on the EU market. Economists like it because it gives maximum pollution savings at least cost. But a true market scheme would see the permits auctioned, not given away by governments.The World Wildlife Fund called it a scandal and demanded a windfall tax to re-direct the profits into energy conservation. Mikhail Gorbachev, chair of environmental think-tank Green Cross International and architect of Perestroika, urged the world's biggest industrialized nations to set up a $ 50 billion fund to support solar power, warning that oil or nuclear energy were not viable energy sources for the future. Gorbachev called on leaders of the Group of Eight (G8) industrialized nations to invest in renewable energy sources, in a statement marking the 20th anniversary of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster. As leader of the Soviet Union in 1986, Gorbachev led the immediate response to the world's worst nuclear disaster, which led to at least 4,000 deaths and sent a radioactive cloud over parts of Europe. According to a report by the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) wind energy generation will storm ahead in the next four years, with North America leading the way. In 2005 alone, 11.5 GW of wind generation capacity was installed worldwide, bringing the total up to 59.1GW. "According to our forecast, wind power will continue to grow rapidly, at an average rate of 18% per year up to 2010," says Arthouros Zervos, Chairman of GWEC. "This will take the total installed capacity up to 134.8GW worldwide by 2010." The Europe Union is still the leading market in 2005 with 40.5 GW of installed capacity.GWEC predicts an annual growth rate of 24% in North America, rising from 9.8 GW at present to 29.1 GW of installed capacity by 2010. Asia is not far behind, with GWEC forecasting 23.5% annual growth, taking capacity up to 20.1 GW. India will continue to lead the continent, followed by China and Japan. South Korea and Taiwan will also emerge as serious players, GWEC says. However, Europe's offshore market is only expected to take off on a large scale towards the end of the decade, giving new momentum to European developments after 2010. Meanwhile, Germany remains the world leader with 18 GW of capacity.The Global Wind 2005 Report is the first in a series of annual reports by the Council on the status of the world's wind energy markets. The 52-page document can be found here. Climate Change and EnvironmentAt last a scientific report, Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere, commissioned by the US government has concluded there is "clear evidence" of climate change caused by human activities. The report, from the federal Climate Change Science Program, said trends seen over the last 50 years "cannot be explained by natural processes alone". It found that temperatures have increased in the lower atmosphere as well as at the Earth's surface. Scientists involved in the report say better data is badly needed. The new report re-analyses the atmospheric data and concludes that tropospheric temperatures are rising. This means, it says, that the impact of human activities upon the global climate is clear. The executive summary is here. Some explanatory resources on climate change from the BBC are here, including an animated guide and how the greenhouse effect works and its implications for climate. Climate volatility was again illustrated in April when heavy rain and melt water caused the Danube to reach its highest levels in over 100 years. A new report evaluating air pollution trends among the 100 largest electric power producers in the U.S. shows that emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) have fallen markedly in recent years, but carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions increased and will likely spike in coming years. Benchmarking Air Emissions of the 100 Largest Electric Power Producers in the United States 2004 (PDF) was released by the Ceres investor coalition, the Natural Resources Defense Council and the Public Service Enterprise Group Inc, one of the electric power generation companies included in the report. The report, which focused on companies generating 88% of the nation's electricity, found that overall emissions of SO2 and NOx fell by 44% and 36%, respectively, between 1990 and 2004. The drops are largely the result of stricter pollution-control standards enacted in the 1990 Clean Air Act amendments. Conversely, CO2 emissions rose 27% in the same 14-year period. And the report predicts a bigger increase in the years ahead due to an unprecedented surge of new U.S. coal-plant proposals that would emit substantially more CO2 than other sources generating the same amount of power. There are currently more than 130 new coal plants proposed across the U.S., and the Energy Information Administration projects a 66% increase in coal-based power production and a 43% increase in CO2 emissions by 2030. The EIA projection assumes no controls on CO2 emissions at the power plants. The study found that a small number of companies produce a relatively large amount of emissions, with three companies alone - American Electric Power, Southern Company and Tennessee Valley Authority - responsible for 24% of the industry's SO2 emissions, 21% of the NOx emissions, 19% of the CO2 emissions and 22% of the mercury emissions. The report also found wide disparities in emission rates -- the amount of pollution generated for every kilowatt of electricity produced -- reflecting differences in management strategies, fuel mix and pollution control technologies. For example, although American Electric Power produced seven times more electricity than PG&E, the company was responsible for 109 times the CO2 emissions. And Southern Company produced about 58% more electricity than Entergy, but emitted 400% more CO2. More than 5,000 farms and organizations today joined forces with the United Nations Environment Programme in a partnership that aims to phase out the use of Methyl Bromide, an agricultural pesticide that damages the Earth's protective shield - the ozone layer. Methyl Bromide has been used by farmers to kill pests in the soil before planting crops like tomatoes, strawberries, melons and flowers, but in 1992 it was officially controlled as an ozone-depleting substance and is scheduled to be retired under the Montreal Protocol, the international treaty set up to protect the ozone layer. The new International Partnership for Phasing-out Methyl Bromide brings together many farms and companies that have led the way in protecting the ozone layer, and aims to speed up the world-wide switch from the pesticide to ozone-friendly alternatives. Another green turns black. At the end of last year James Lovelock came out in support of nuclear energy because he believes that our desire for convenience will not allow fast enough change to alternative fuels while global while global warming has passed the point of no return. And now in April we hear that George Monbiot is supporting fossil fuels because without natural gas he believes that we can not convert to a hydrogen economy fast enough! These high profile conversions are a dire warning that the stress on our planet is far greater than we all are prepared to accept. The unrecognised environmental risks to our livelihoods are potentially cataclysmic. We have great faith in the ability of people to adapt and survive, and that is how we pursue life, but perhaps our optimism is too charitable and we should just become hedonistic lovers of convenience while the biosphere remains. To hell with our children! ITA US judge quashed Microsoft's demands that rival Novell hand over documents it presented to the European Commission for use in the anti-trust case. The judge turned down the request as Microsoft was trying to "circumvent and undermine" European law. Microsoft is fighting a European Union (EU) ruling that could trigger fines of up to € 2 million a day. The latest ruling by Boston district court judge Mark Wolf came a week before Microsoft faces the EU's second highest court to appeal against a 2004 ruling that it had abused its dominant market position. Meanwhile, at the annual LinuxWorld conference in Boston, Microsoft said it plans to support the Linux open-source operating system. For its part, Microsoft says that it will support Linux distributions from Red Hat and Novell in its Virtual Server product, which enables IT managers to configure a group of servers into one big jumble of computing power. Virtual Server had been reserved for managing Windows-driven computers. Yes, you read that right. And, no, I can't believe it, either. They will no doubt be increasingly focussing on entertainment and communications. Mr Softy seems to be recognising that open source is the way to go and Windoze is dead. Sun Microsystems says co-founder and CEO Scott McNealy, who has been a critic of Microsoft, is to step down. The 51-year-old will quit the post with immediate effect, but will stay on at the company in the role of chairman. Sun's current president and chief financial officer Jonathan Schwartz will take over at the helm of the firm. The news came as the US firm revealed third quarter losses had widened to $217 million from $ 28 million at the same time a year ago. Sun blamed a number of mainly merger-related charges for the fall - excluding the one-off costs losses fell to just 1 cent per share. Meanwhile, revenues for the three months to 26 March rose 21% to $3.18billion. BloodSpell is the largest Machinima film ever created. It`s an independent film that, because it is using Machinima technology, is not subject to the usual limitations of smaller films. Although it does not have the money and producers of a Hollywood production it does experiment with ideas, styles and attitudes that wouldn`t be possible in a more top-heavy Hollywood production. Of course, it still has limitations - BloodSpell won`t be beating out `Lord of the Rings` for visual effects. What it lacks in slick polish, may be made up for in originality and passion.The other unique thing about BloodSpell is the way it`s being released under a Creative Commons license, meaning that it will be free both to download and to modify: in other words, where even many indie filmmakers might get upset if you put their work up on Bittorrent or translate it into a new language, that is encouraged. We saw some persuasive statistics on how the internet is changing the market place. Retail entrepreneurs using eBay have experienced massive growth. In the UK and Germany over 60,000 entrepreneurs earn at least 25% of their income from eBay businesses. One telling example is Sport Otto which started 3 years ago and is now retailing over $ 1.8 million in skates, skis and other sports goods and employs 25 people part time. Holonics and LOHASHolonics * Health * Environment * Education * Living HolonicsBusinessWeek
presented a review of Most Innovative Companies.
It is interesting in that open tech businesses, like Linux and Mozilla,
were not mentioned although the characteristics by which the evaluation
- in process, product and business model innovation - were gauged, are
quintessential to open tech businesses. And open tech businesses
are achieving what many thought impossible just a few years ago - beating
the giants at their own game: Windows has been forced to redesign its
core to stay in the running (and its next iteration "Vista" may be its
last), IE has only maintained dominance through monopolistic retention
and has lost 10% share of market to alternatives with virtually no development
or marketing budget! The barriers to innovation cited by BusinessWeek
are inherently overcome by the open tech model:
Many of the comments on the online version of the review criticise it for giving credit to big companies which have bought innovation rather than created it. The April issue of the GIBS review summarised a discussion on national prosperity measures. Alternative economic indices, like the Index of Sustainability and Economic Welfare (ISEW) and the Genuine Progress Index (GPI) and our favoured Calvert-Henderson's Quality of Life Indicators, confirm that despite GDP growth rates growing, ordinary citizens sense the erosion of their economic quality of life as economies expand. "Barefoot economist" Max-Neef points out that GDP accounting only measures the total value of market transactions and makes no distinction between transactions that add to or diminish well-being. In short, costs are not separated from benefits. Our base, Ireland is used as a current example: Max-Neef says Ireland experienced unprecedented economic growth during the 1980s and 1990s, but reached its GDP growth threshold at the peak of its economic boom in 2000. With Ireland’s average weekly working hours topping the global charts, its economy continued to grow at an exponential rate, but its population progressively lost almost all faith in the country’s religious, medical and financial institutions. Holonic measures lead to better understanding of prosperity, better policies and better business. If you are a holonic thinker and actor check out the Brights.net - it may offer a community in which you feel comfortable. Also an interesting blog post on holonics “Is P2P for everybody?” is here. It discusses person to person business, galvanised by the net, as it relates to the developmental schemes of Integral Theory, Spiral Dynamics, Gravesian psychology. HealthThe Ecologist (recommended reading) discusses formula versus breast milk in their May cover story. While a very few mothers are not able to nurse their children, most can and should. The rationale is not just one of convenience but of health. Example statistics tell the story: bottle-fed babies are 2x more likely to die from any cause in the first six months, 2x more likely to suffer from diarrhoea, 5x more likely to develop urinary tract infections and more. Despite this, parents are blind sided by formula companies' marketing which is € 30 per baby in the UK and over 100x what the government spends to promote breastfeeding. Do not allow yourself or your friends to be duped by the marketing of companies whose objective is not the health of your child but paying themselves profit. The food industry is spending hundreds of millions of dollars to reduce the levels of the carcinogen acrylamide in food products, reports New Scientist. The action comes amidst suspicion that acrylamide could be behind an epidemic of cancer and other illnesses. Acrylamide first came to the world’s attention in 2002 when TV reports revealed that breakfast cereals might be laced with the deadly chemical. The reports followed research from Swedish scientists who had discovered that the substance, thought of previously as an industrial chemical, was present in a huge range of foods. The Swedish research was taken extremely seriously by governments around the world. The problem was how to deal with a contaminant that existed in almost all baked and fried foods. Acrylamide is formed by the Maillard reaction which occurs when amino acids react with sugar when food is heated to more than 120 oC. Bread crusts and fried and roasted potatoes are among the many foods given their distinctive flavour by the Maillard reaction. And whilst processed foods — French fries, crisps, coffee and pastries — are major contributors of total acrylamide intake, foods cooked at home are responsible for around half of the acrylamide we ingest. At present, insufficient large-scale research has been conducted to demonstrate the risk to human health of current levels of acrylamide intake. Swedish researcher Leif Busk says the risk is low compared to smoking, but high compared with other food carcinogens. Whilst genotoxicity studies are still being completed the food industry has been investing heavily in reducing the acrylamide levels across a range of food stuffs. In the meantime the advice from the scientists who identified the problem is to observe the ‘golden rule’ when cooking at home — that is, when cooking at home, bake or fry foods until they are golden, not brown or black. New Scientist contrasts this with the food industry's efforts on trans - or hydrogenated - fats. Here there is a well-known, quantifiable risk (5g a day = a 25% increase in the risk of ischemic heart disease) yet the food industry has been allowed to continue to use trans fats at dangerously high levels. Leading fast food products recently tested in outlets around the world have been found to contain up to five times the recommended upper safety limit, in a single portion. Gradually, food retailers have been responding to growing consumer knowledge about trans fats (M&S and Tesco are removing them from their own-label products). But the authorities in the UK continue to drag their feet, despite knowing that the people at the highest risk of heart disease are the people consuming the highest proportion of hydrogenated fats. The situation - and the solution - is actually very simple, as Craig Sams wrote in Natural Products last month: artificial fats are bad for you - the British Government should just ban the stuff, as indeed Denmark has. For cancer and AIDS sufferers bad news. The US Food and Drug Administration said that "no sound scientific studies" supported the medical use of marijuana, contradicting a 1999 review by a panel of highly regarded scientists. The Economist led an April edition of their science section with an indictment of the political win over science. The announcement inserts the FDA into yet another fierce political fight. Eleven states have legalized medicinal use of marijuana, but the Drug Enforcement Administration and the director of national drug control policy, John P. Walters, have opposed those laws. Susan Bro, an agency spokeswoman, said the statement resulted from a past combined review by federal drug enforcement, regulatory and research agencies that concluded "smoked marijuana has no currently accepted or proven medical use in the United States and is not an approved medical treatment." Ms. Bro said the agency issued the statement in response to numerous inquiries from Capitol Hill but would probably do nothing to enforce it. The Food and Drug Administration statement directly contradicts a 1999 review by the Institute of Medicine, a part of the National Academy of Sciences, the nation's most prestigious scientific advisory agency. That review found marijuana to be "moderately well suited for particular conditions, such as chemotherapy - induced nausea and vomiting and AIDS wasting." Some scientists and legislators said the agency's statement about marijuana demonstrated that politics had trumped science. In related developments, in April the Ninth Circuit overturned the felony conviction of Ed Rosenthal, finding juror misconduct compromised his right to a fair trial. Ed Rosenthal is a horticulturist, author, publisher, who grew marijuana for AIDS and cancer sufferers was arrested in 2002. He was convicted in a controversial trial presided over by Federal District Court Judge Charles Breyer. Also, Mexico's president will approve a law that decriminalises possession of small amounts of marijuana, cocaine and other drugs to concentrate on fighting violent narco gangs. President Vicente Fox will not oppose the bill, passed by senators, despite likely tensions with the United States. New research carried out at the University of Michigan suggests that ginger could have an important role to play in treating ovarian cancer. The researchers used dissolved ginger powder, similar to that sold in shops, which they applied to ovarian cancer cells. In the study the ginger killed the cancer cells in each of the tests carried out. Even more significantly, the ginger seemed to stop the cells from becoming resistant to treatment. The US research demonstrated two types of cell death — apoptosis, in essence cell suicide, and autophagy, a kind of self-digestion. The report’s author, Rebecca Lui, said “Most ovarian cancer patients develop recurrent disease, that eventually becomes resistant to standard chemotherapy, which is associated with apoptosis. If ginger can cause autophagic cell death in addition to apoptosis, it may circumvent resistance to conventional chemotherapy.”But the researchers have warned that the results are “very preliminary” and that a lot more work needed to be done to establish if ginger, in either natural or drug form, can prevent or treat cancers in animals or people. The US team now plans to test to see if they can obtain similar results in animals. New research shows that people who follow a vegetarian diet are likely to have body weight as much as 20% less than non-vegetarians, and are at lower risk of serious disease. A review of 87 observational and clinical studies published recently in Nutrition Reviews (vol. 64) showed that weight loss seen in self-proclaimed vegetarians did not appear to depend on exercise or calorie count, and could occur at a rate of 1 pound per week. Neil Barnard of the US Physicians Committee for Responsible Medicine commented: “There is evidence that a (vegetarian) diet causes an increased calorie burn after meals, meaning that plant based foods are being used more efficiently as fuel for the body, as opposed to being stored as fat. If such diets cause weight loss when adopted by overweight individuals, they may be of substantial clinical value because they are also associated with other health benefits, including improved control of blood lipids, blood pressure and diabetes.” New research published in the Journal of Pediatric Health Care has also highlighted the nutritional advantages of bringing up children on a vegetarian diet. The research, states that vegetarian children and teenagers take in less harmful cholesterol, saturated fat and total fat and more fruit, vegetables and fibre than their non-veggie counterparts — all essential to a healthy life. Vegetarian children are also leaner, says the report, and have less risk of developing several chronic diseases in adulthood. So convincing is the science that the authors encourage nurses to: "Reassure parents, children, and adolescents that a well-planned vegetarian diet is a healthy choice that promotes growth and decreases the risk for diabetes, heart disease and cancer." "There is a wealth of research highlighting the advantages of vegetarian diets," says health campaigner Amanda Woodvine, of the health charity, Vegetarian & Vegan Foundation (V&VF). "They can lead to lifelong healthy eating habits when adopted at an early age and because of this early start, the advantages will be felt throughout life. It's the best way to cut the risk of killer diseases and improve your kids' chances of a long and healthy future." On the other end of the spectrum, the ‘extreme candy’ business is apparently the fastest growing sector of the US confectionery market - experiencing a hyperactive 11.5% growth surge in 2005. And it positively revels in coining the most violent and offensive names possible for its products. Take Mega Warheads for example - ‘extreme hard candy’ that carries the warning “eating multiple pieces within a short time period may cause temporary irritation to sensitive tongues”. Or Toxic Waste, described by UK distributor Creative Candy Ltd, as “hazardously sour” and is packaged in lurid yellow miniature waste drums. The obligatory warning this time is “not suitable for under-threes”. As Natural Products says "So what can we expect next - Smart Bomb, the miniature Enhanced Guided Bomb that delivers a massive payload of exploding sherbet, scattering tiny shards of cough candy around the mouth of the unsuspecting user?"! According to one of the largest studies of the impact of food and drink on mental decline, the diet of southern France, Italy and Spain, rich in olive oil and red wine, is known to protect against heart disease and high blood pressure, and this is the first time it has been shown to prevent Alzheimer's by up to 40%. Researchers monitored 2,258 healthy, elderly people in New York City who were part of a research project into ageing. Their medical and neurological history was assessed, they had standard physical and neurological tests and their cognitive function was measured every 18 months. After four years, 262 of the participants were diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease, more than one in 10 of the total. Records of their diets during the study period showed that those who adhered most closely to the Mediterranean diet - eating lots of fruit, vegetables, pulses, some fish and alcohol, with little dairy food and meat - had the lowest risk of Alzheimer's, down by 40%. Those who only partially followed the diet had a reduced risk of 15 to 20pc compared to those who consumed the typical burger-and-ice-cream American diet. All the participants were scored on a scale from 0 to 9 for their adherence to the Mediterranean diet, and the risk of Alzheimer's fell around 10pc for every additional point they climbed up the scale. EnvironmentWith the unethical liberalisation of GMO in Europe engineered by US agri-drug multinationals, the organic sector has responded with a challenge to regulate GMO users in the same way as organic producers. Consumers choose organic to avoid GMOs and believe they have a right to totally GM-free food. Many organic farmers believe that a law allowing routine GMO contamination of organic produce would therefore result in consumers losing trust in organics. This, in turn, would lead to serious damage to carefully built-up organic markets. The closely regulated, frequently inspected and independently certified organic sector is calling on the EC to force GM farmers to undergo similar third-party monitoring and legal controls. There is already a strong case for much stricter controls to be applied to GM farming, both on financial liability and consumer rights grounds. IFOAM has called on the EU to certify GM farmers as a way of protecting organic and conventional farmers from GMO contamination. The IFOAM EU Group is now demanding that all GM producers be required to follow a strict certified regime that ensure they do not contaminate others with transgenic material. Instead of the present approach under EU law, which allows routine GMO contamination of up to 0.9%, IFOAM wants to see the EC working on legislation that makes GM farmers, and the biotech companies who developed their crops, to be strictly liable for the damage they cause. The problem of Irish drift net fishers devastating stocks, in particular salmon, continues. The North Atlantic Salmon Fund, led by Icelandic entrepreneur Vigfurrsson, on a trip organised for Icelandic MPS to Ireland heard that Fisheries Minister Browne, despite promises to the contrary he made in 2003, was expected to ignore warnings from his scientific advisers that if drift netting continued Ireland would be in breach of its international and EU obligations. The Icelandic delegation met President Mary McAleese, the Speaker of the Dail Dr. Rory O’ Hanlon and the Vice Prime Minister Mary Harney as well as leaders of the opposition parties. All the European countries that have salmon rivers, as well as Canada and the US, have urged Ireland to end drift netting immediately. The Irish nets target mixed stocks of international salmon returning from the oceanic feeding grounds off Iceland, Greenland and the Faroe Islands. The only reason they can still catch so many fish is that the salmon are protected from commercial fishing in these northern waters. In order to restore international stocks, the fishermen of the far north have agreed not to fish for salmon and have signed commercial conservation agreements that compensate them for their lost income. This is mainly funded by private sector interests under the leadership of the NASF. For several years NASF has been trying vainly to broker a similar scheme for Ireland.Wild salmon numbers are rebuilding in regions where NASF agreements are in place. In Iceland, for instance, anglers enjoyed their best salmon catches ever last year. Ireland, on the other hand, endured the worst fishing season since its records began. Most experts blame this disaster on the drift nets. A decade ago these nets were taking 26% of the all the salmon caught in the European Union. Despite rapidly shrinking stocks in their own rivers, the Irish nets have all but doubled that share in the last few years. On the other hand, a positive sign of change occurred in the Japanese whaling industry. Five major food companies pulled support from the company that runs most of the country's whaling ships. The companies, Nissui, Gortons, Sealord and Bluewater Seafoods have divested their one-third share in Kyodo Senpaku. The move comes at the point when Japan and other pro-whaling nations seem likely to achieve a majority in the International Whaling Commission and follows some concentrated campaigning by environmental campaigners.Greenpeace noted that this action showed the power of consumers in globalised markets. We recently reported on the extensive logging practices in sub-tropical jungle, and now hear that this is removing the opportunity to benefit from plants that have therapeutic properties. The World Wide Fund for Nature noted that discovery of new plant species and full analysis of those already found are threatened by logging and plantation firms as they destroy the forests for short-term profit. Development of drugs for serious illnesses from jungle plants by 'bio-prospectors' who draw on traditional knowledge of indigenous people is important business. For example, a joint venture between a Malaysian state and a US pharmaceutical firm is conducting clinical trials of a substance called calanolide A, a compound originally found in the latex of the bintangor rubber tree. US scientists who took away samples discovered that calanolide A appears to block the replication of the HIV virus and even works against TB. The bark of the langsat tree, which also yields an edible fruit, has been found to contain a substance that, in a test tube and in infected mice, kills the parasites that cause malaria. A shrub named Aglaia leptantha contains a compound that kills human cancer cells, including those of the brain, breasts and skin. Cures such as these may be lost forever without restraint in the logging practices of these forests. EducationBusinessWeek produced a ranking of top 50 US undergraduate business schools which is a valuable summary and tool for evaluating the trade-offs between the 50 programmes (and not just because our editor's alma mater was ranked first!). One aspect that stands out is the range of the annual cost even at the top where the #1 programme is over 4x the cost of the #2 programme. It is definitely worth a review if you are considering a business degree for yourself or your children. The US is increasingly seeing the damage to its educational establishment of an overly restrictive visa policy. At the ACM International Collegiate Programming Contest in early April, in the gruelling 5 hour contest, 6 puzzles were solved by the winners from Saratov State University in Russia. Of the top 12 places only one US institution, MIT, placed while most spots were won by Asia or Eastern European teams. China and India produce 900,000 engineering graduates of all type each year - more than 3 times the US number of graduates. A recent book by Michael Pollan - Omnivore's Dilemma, a natural history of four meals - is an education in where our food comes from. Focusing on the US food production chain the author tells us how industrial agriculture produces the food we eat. His colourful stories will almost certainly be news to you and will probably change the way you eat as you see how the industrial food-chain threatens our environment and health. Although religion is a core part of most people's education, Christian doctrine is in the throes of change. After being reviled the embodiment of treachery, Judas Iscariot's story has been published in April telling us that Judas was the closest disciple to Jesus and did what he did with the consent, even encouragement, of Jesus. The Gospel of Judas, a fragile clutch of a leather-bound papyrus thought to have been inscribed in about AD300, was unveiled in Washington by the National Geographic Society, and it represents a radical makeover for one of the worst reputations in history. According to this version of events, not only was Judas obeying orders when he handed Jesus to his persecutors, he was Christ's most trusted disciple, singled out to receive mystical knowledge. According to the 26-page gospel, copied in the ancient Coptic language apparently from a Greek original more than a hundred years older, Jesus told Judas: "Step away from the others and I shall tell you the mysteries of the kingdom. It is possible for you to reach it, but you will grieve greatly." In the days before the fateful Passover holiday, Jesus also told Judas: "You will exceed all of them. For you will sacrifice the man that clothes me." The line, according to biblical scholars, suggests that Jesus chose Judas to help him achieve his destiny by liberating him from his earthly body. The initial reaction from Christian scholars was wary, as might be expected. The release of the manuscript does serve as a reminder that the four gospels in the New Testament were not the only versions of Jesus's life in the early Christian era. While it seems fantastic at first, it does match fit with the exceptional capacities and holonic approach of Jesus. We were introduced to an online learning website for children which parents should browse. KBears is a colourful, interactive, well designed learning site for children covering a range of topics. We also heard of Supercamp from Quantum Learning Network, a camp for children which seems to offer a broad spectrum of nurturing activities in a wholesome setting. With camps for age groups from about 8 to adult there are a range of options from which to choose. The camps have been running for a couple of decades and feedback seems positive. Parents might consider it as a rewarding experience for their children and employers for teams in their organisation. LivingThe New York Times presents an interesting map: Murder in New York: Killers and Their Victims in the Five Boroughs a map of murders in NYC. Between 2003 and 2005, 1,662 murders were committed in New York. Men and boys were responsible for 93 percent of the murders; their victims tended to be other men and boys; and in more than half the cases, the killer and victim knew each other. The good sign is that the numbers declined. You can click on the map to view all of the homicides by borough. It is exciting to hear that the Vatican is preparing
a document about condom use by AIDS sufferers at Pope
Benedict XVI's request. This is another sign that Benedict is
not the conservative some thought prior to his election. The Catholic
church is taking a pragmatic view of life and as retired Milan Cardinal
Carlo Maria Martini, a one-time papal contender, said condoms are the
"lesser evil" in combating the increasing spread of the AIDS virus. Professor
Linda Hogan of the School of Ecumenics at Trinity College said "It seems
to me that there is a possibility within the Church's own tradition
to develop the thinking on this matter so that within the context of
the lesser of two evils, it is indeed possible for Catholics who are
married to continue to have sexual intercourse - even when one partner
has HIV/Aids - and use condoms to protect the partner who is uninfected."
It is unlikely that the church will promote condom use, but enough organisations
are doing that. Simply removing the stigma will help, especially
in less-educated populations more prone to superstitions. It's been two years since Free Range produced the runaway hit and winner of the Webby award, The Meatrix. Now, the action packed sequel is has been released! Follow Moopheus, Leo and Chickity as they dive deeper into the Meatrix to uncover the the truth about factory farming. Watch the next chapter by clicking here: www.meatrix2.com A few months ago, we noted that a new bottled water company had emerged which distinguished itself by given a few cents per sale to water projects in Africa. As expected that model by Ethos Water, since bought by Starbucks, is easy to copy. Already Ballygowan a leading Irish brand is doing something similar. However, Belu has raised the stakes by committing to contribute all of its net profit to water relief in developing areas. They also plan to introduce a biodegradable bottle which composts in a few months - this is far more useful, though the ethics of bottled water in any form, other than from DIY from a tap, is questionable. Activities, Books and GatheringsApril afforded us some breathing room which was sorely needed to work in the garden as rising temperatures in the garden are bringing up the weeds as well as the seedlings. We also were able to make good progress on rejuvenating the long lost Victorian aqueduct in the garden. Our listed portfolios seem to be performing well, like many, which also afforded some peace of mind. The opportunity to reflect has raised the options of change which we'll consider more closely in May. There may be the opportunity to take on a partner so if you have a friend who demonstrates big picture thinking, professional skills and discipline and has high energy, please refer them to us - it is a good time to grow our activities. Dipping in to Child Development by John Santrock reminded me what an excellent reference it is. It is very readable and offering practical understanding when you're not sure how to manage your children. Our copy is a 1994 edition, the issue coincident with arrival of our first-born, but remains timely and relevant. What's more, I find that it offers insights into my own behaviour! A highly recommended addition to a family library. Carpe Jugulum by Dr Pratchett was on the bedside table this month. For most of the story I just enjoyed the colour and passion and then at the climax the big lesson for me came out. Don't try to beat your enemy, become part of your enemy to defalte its influence over you and then let it live to remind you of the dangers of evil. That might be common understanding for some of you, but I think it will be quite hard to do. P3 Capital has arranged an investor's circle like gathering in early May in London which brings together ethically run businesses and investors. It promises to be an excellent forum and we encourage people to be in touch with Charlie O'Malley if they are either seeking to invest or raise capital because there are likely to be future events. BeTheChange
will take place in the second week of May and we are looking forward
to sharing perspectives in science, business, art and spirituality at
that forum.
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know thyself - Socrates |